When will the unemployment rate hit 10%?

The original sin which tremendously taxes are entire economy is Truman's 1947 occupation of Palestine. Since then it is the man cause of 9-11 at WTC, Hasan at Ft Hood, and $T in useless taxes and military expenses. The U.S. should end the Holy Christian Crusades Against Islam and free 10,000,000 Semitic Palestinians held prisoners in the Gaza "Death Camp" and West Bank "Warsaw Ghetto". We can then use the savings to fund investments in our country and citizens.

One guy is loonier than the next in this thread.

Please don't make fun of the 62 year long occupation of Palestine. The states of Washington and Oregon contain roughly 10,000,000 people. The same amount of people as those who are jailed into Nazi Death Camps in Palestine by the United States and the State of Israel.

Sagarin wrote:

The rollover IRAs that I do have SIGNIFICANT control over are up some 42% YTD.

I'm up 53% YTD (my year ends 11/30).

U have to be a moron to not make money in '09

Who knows where things go...but the US Peso is sliding, the renminbi is not going to budge (or they will do so grudgingly) and CRE is an albatross around banks necks

Jamie Dimon - hundreds of banks will fail because of CRE crashing.

Permanent underclass: The quality and price of porn will both improve - thats a given

Just ignore "Crusade against islam" guy. You simply provide him more fodder by giving him what he wants.

Secondly, this administration has thus far shown no inclination towards cutting taxes (unlike Clinton and JFK)that would help small business and quite job creation... just the opposite and we are putting the cart before the Trojan horse. This all could change of course, though it's hard to see the bond vigilantes getting perturbed in the short-run in a deflationary/disinflationary environment.

Thirdly, one of my institutional contacts told me last week that of some $880 billion sitting in retail accounts, a fully 25% of it was still in cash. So, while some of the smartest minds in the business are absolutely and correctly bewildered from a fundamental standpoint and numerous Fed officials, including one Ben Bernanke, are saying that we are not creating another bubble (which of course means that wee are), it's hard to bet against it...

Disagree with Mish on the sideline cash comment:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/bernanke-vs-meridith-whitney.html

Gotta admit I chuckled:

OUR CHAIRMAN

WHO ART AT GOLDMAN

HALLOWED BE THY NAME

THE RALLYS COME,GODS WORK BE DONE

WE HAVE NO FEAR OF CORRECTION

GIVE US THIS DAY OUR DAILY GAIN

AND BANKRUPT OUR NEAREST COMPETITORS

LEAVING NO ONE LEFT TO STAND AGAINST US

AND BRING US NOT UNDER INDICTMENT

FOR THINE IS THE TREASURY

AND THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE

FOREVER AND EVER

GOLDMAN

Pledge of Subservience

I pledge Allegiance to the Fed

of the United States of America

and to the corruption for which it stands,

one nation under Goldman, easily divisible,

with criminal acts against all.

- Mish.

Jobless Claims Drop

In a glimmer of hope for the labor market, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits last week fell to the lowest level since September of 2008. Total claims lasting more than one week, meanwhile, also decreased.

Initial claims for jobless benefits declined by 35,000 to 466,000 in the week ended Nov. 21, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Wednesday. The previous week's level was revised to 501,000 from 505,000. This represents the lowest figure for claims since September 13, 2008 and it is the first time initial claims have fallen below the 500,000 mark since early January, according to Labor Department data.

Last week's initial claims fell by more than economists expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a decrease of 10,000 claims.

The four-week moving average of new claims, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, also fell by 16,500 to 496,500 from the previous week's revised average of 513,000. That is the lowest figure since November 8, 2008.

Economists widely expected initial claims would fall in Wednesday's report, and some believe that this the break away from the 500,000 mark will be sustained in the weeks to come.

"Taken as a whole, the labor market data for the US is suggesting we are in a gradual, steady improvement towards job growth at some point over the next three to six months and the decline in jobless claims is consistent with that," said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Global Economics. "The trend has been very persistent since the end of August and we are expecting that to continue."

# # #

* Please note: this excerpt is from the Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125915500754163841.html

Quite different from the apocalyptic rantings of fringe financial blogs.

Nice of you to tee this thread up again Webby and quote the obvious (again, did anyone think we wouldn't see an INorganic bump from all of this stimulus??). And, yet, THIS administration is finally, FINALLY coming clean and admitting that they expect economic growth to stagnate for 5-6 years and the high unemployment rate to persist (wow, what a revelation). We will revisit this in time.

"Some, like my former boss and partner, think it is already too late. He, too, frequently uses the “junkie” analogy to describe the U.S. economy and those who inhabit it. I recently caught up with him between stays in the Caribbean and asked him when he thought the American economy might “OD” if nothing is done to turn it around. He responded, “Dude, this is it. They’ve already injected the fatal dose.” I can only hope and pray that he is wrong for the first time."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

"How long must we sing this song?"

- U2.

By the way, none of these "fringe" blogs have been inconsistent with the current improvement. The consistent theme has been that we are merely "kicking the can down the road," a theme I very much agree with.

Oh, and one more thing. Hussman and Mauldin are hardly fringe guys. Enjoy.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091116.htm

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091123.htm

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/11/13/if-this-is-recovery.aspx

Sagarin wrote:The consistent theme has been that we are merely "kicking the can down the road," a theme I very much agree with.

I agree with it, too. And thank God we are. If we had kicked the can down the road a year and a half ago, we could have kicked it right past the Great Recession.

Drawing out the process popping an asset bubble is exactly what must be done to minimize the disruption to the rest of the economy. Similarly, delaying foreclosures and allowing banks to recapitalize gradually allows the housing and finance sectors to regain their footing.

Eventually, inflation and/or economic expansion will bring stability, as it already has to an impressive extent.

Keep kicking the can.

webby wrote:

Drawing out the process popping an asset bubble is exactly what must be done to minimize the disruption to the rest of the economy.

Well, it's a shame then that we are doing the opposite and reflating yet another bubble isn't it? By the way, this isn't the "Great Recession." Recessions, even great ones, are short, relatively speaking. This is the Great Deleveraging. If only would would let it happen, instead of prolonging it.

Sagarin.

Dear God, please stop posting.

You're stilted writing is painful to endure

And yet, people like you keep bumping this thread and reading it when it falls off the front page. Go figure...

Seems like an appropriate time to revisit this issue.

Ian Shepherdson at HFE is out this evening with a cogent analysis that official unemployment rate stays at ten percent tomorrow, but emphasizes the growing gap between household survey and official payrolls. He notes the impact of temporary census hiring, which he projects will mask real unemployment until second half of 2011. But I am thinking it hits 10.2 tomorrow. The markets seem to be awakening to the ramifications of this.

Anyone venture a different view?

The gap between payrolls and household survey was a big story today. All in all, I think it was a very positive report. The 9.7% number was obviously a huge positive surprise in the midst of tremendous doom and gloom. The average workweek was up a lot. The household gains were also very encouraging (+140,000) -- and I heard an analyst today refer to the household survey as more accurate and definitely less subject to revisions.

Europe is a mess, but outside of housing, our economy is suddenly looking quite strong.

Of course the economy is "looking strong" right now. Bush/Paulson, inanely followed by Obama/Geithner, threw unprecedented and unsterilized "stimulus" at it, chucked out the senior creditors, underwrote everyone's bad mortgage and encouraged more leverage, bought a car company and implemented predatory lending, and the government still has all of its fingers in the dykes. There's no telling how long everyone will continue to drink the Fed's kool-aid punch bowl. But it will end, IMNSHO, and the Fed is praying that the baton doesn't get dropped during the "exchange," which will inexorably happen whether it's forced or not.

I promised myself I wouldn't get involved with these threads this year, because arguing over micro, monthly nuances is hardly constructive when looking at the macro-cycle. Dynamics change in an instant, particularly when you never quite know what governments are going to do. It's what's down the road that makes me wary. You don't cure a debt hangover with more leverage. Deflation is painful, but it's a good thing. If we would just let it happen...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/jobs-contract-yet-again-unemployment.html

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2010/February+2010+Gross+Ring+of+Fire.htm

Some problems here: The "not seasonally adjusted" numbers are actually higher than last year:

U-3 = 10.6%

U-6 = 18.0%