cardinal 5k. will german run?

faddsaad;lkd wrote:

You CANNOT be serious.

faddsaad;lkd,

This can't be for real. Don't bother with him.

-the ghost

mighty porn stache wrote:

where is your conversion coming from? Daniels has 3:56 = 7:48 = 13:35

13:07 for 5k is equivalent to about 7:32 for 3k and 3:48 for mile!

According to you, to run 12:37 you'd need to run a mile in 3:39, which is nonsense.

German should be able to run 13:07 right now, or quite soon, provided he's been properly trained.

My conversion comes from the same basic formula I've been using for the last several decades.

Confirmation from OSU that GF is running:

http://www.okstate.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=1639&SPID=153&DB_OEM_ID=200&ATCLID=3730558

GF FTW 12:33 new WR

Somehow this turned into Gold; this whole damn thread.

9/10

The Machine wrote:

Really? Like... really? It basically seems like your saying German is the best distance runner in the US right now, I mean I can't really think of anyone whose bad day is better than Teg, Dobson, Cragg, Chelenga, etc. I mean you realize that Teg has run 3:34 and 7:34 right? I don't really know where your conclusion is coming from. He has run incredible times to be sure... but they are not world elite times. He didn't even run the fast 3k in the NCAA this year. So if his pr's aren't better than the top guys than I would look to who he has beat. His biggest win is over Micheal Coe by less than a second, an exceptional runner in his own right to be sure, but his pr's are no better than German's so that really doesn't elevate him too much. Chelenga and Rupp were messing around at XC nats and he was 20 seconds back sitting in a pack at 8k. I mean he is an incredible runner and if were posting 2 years in the future I would probably believe every word but NOW? Really?[/quote]

I didn't say he'd win on a bad day, I said he'd beat 2/3 of the field. He runs smart races, sits back and lets others do the work till it's time to kick into gear, when he surges ahead. If he runs like this in Heat 1, he beats 2/3 of the field. There are 24 in Heat 1, so he'd have to finish 8th or better. He wouldn't have to beat Chelanga, Cragg, Dobson or Teg to do that.

In my mind Chelanga is the favorite to win that heat. He'd be tough for German to beat. As for the rest, what do PRs matter? Alan Webb is the fastest American miler of all time, but at this moment, I might pick Rupp - a 10k guy until recently - over Webb in a mile. I guess we'll find out Saturday what kind of shape the Olympians are in, but I'm guessing - like Barrios, Fam, and Solinsky at Sac - they're not ready to run PRs yet. And if they're not in PR shape, I wouldn't be surprised for any or all of them to be outkicked by a fresh German.

I didn't say he'd win on a bad day, I said he'd beat 2/3 of the field. He runs smart races, sits back and lets others do the work till it's time to kick into gear, when he surges ahead. If he runs like this in Heat 1, he beats 2/3 of the field. There are 24 in Heat 1, so he'd have to finish 8th or better. He wouldn't have to beat Chelanga, Cragg, Dobson or Teg to do that.

In my mind Chelanga is the favorite to win that heat. He'd be tough for German to beat. As for the rest, what do PRs matter? Alan Webb is the fastest American miler of all time, but at this moment, I might pick Rupp - a 10k guy until recently - over Webb in a mile. I guess we'll find out Saturday what kind of shape the Olympians are in, but I'm guessing - like Barrios, Fam, and Solinsky at Sac - they're not ready to run PRs yet. And if they're not in PR shape, I wouldn't be surprised for any or all of them to be outkicked by a fresh German.[/quote]

You're actually quote was that he could beat "almost everyone in that field on a bad day." Perhaps I misconstrued your comment.

Anyways as far as current shape theory goes, I'd probably put my money on the professionals just opening up rather than the guy who has had a stress reaction within the last month.

The Machine wrote:

His biggest win is over Micheal Coe by less than a second,

Really? So it wouldn't be that race in which he broke the NCAA indoor mile record? You must know a lot about the sport.

Heres the kicker wrote:

The Machine wrote:

His biggest win is over Micheal Coe by less than a second,

Really? So it wouldn't be that race in which he broke the NCAA indoor mile record? You must know a lot about the sport.

In reference to the people that he beat in each race, I would say that the win over Coe was better, yes. While the 3:55 was the better time, he did not beat anyone particularly notable.

My My you all are fools.Let the young man run. He and his coach are always realistic with what German can run.In every sport there are those who perform above and below of what is expected of them. German has always performed above. But that being said, (and I am one that lives within a mile of Riverbank HS and has followed German's rise, I have voted against the unrealistic results that he has been fore-casted to run, then has bettered those fore-cast)I believe German will below the 5K AMJR this weekend. With what time? Only father time and German's Maserati for a cardiovascular system will know. So as another poster said, Stop being envious. Enjoy the joy he will bring to you.

Great work everyone. Now when German Fernandez actually runs a 13:23.28 on Saturday - a time that is simply amazing for a true freshman - I'm going to be disappointed.

All this talk of sub-13 and sub-13:20 makes a 13:23.28 seem silly. Too bad, as this is a stand up performance and surely one of the greatest runs of our time.

Montesquieu wrote:

Confirmation from OSU that GF is running:

http://www.okstate.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=1639&SPID=153&DB_OEM_ID=200&ATCLID=3730558

Look I know for a fact he took 2 solid weeks off in early April, at least! Why is he running this! He is not fit for this! What the hell are they doing!

What Yea.... wrote:

Montesquieu wrote:

Confirmation from OSU that GF is running:

http://www.okstate.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=1639&SPID=153&DB_OEM_ID=200&ATCLID=3730558

Look I know for a fact he took 2 solid weeks off in early April, at least! Why is he running this! He is not fit for this! What the hell are they doing!

just because he is on the list does NOT mean he is running. I know tons of people not going that are on the start lists.

Your right. I just really like German. I coached a big gun last year that ran against him several times. German was really great to my runner. The kid was a super nice person.

Perhaps you have trouble opening links, so here is the text of the press release, dated 4/29/09, from the Oklahoma State University athletic department (and, thus, not a start list):STILLWATER, Okla. – The Oklahoma State men’s track and field team returns to action this weekend to compete in the Arkansas Twilight Meet on Friday in Fayetteville, Ark., and the Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational on Saturday in Palo Alto, Calif. This weekend also marks the first weekend of collegiate outdoor competition for freshman standout German Fernandez.Fernandez and several other top Cowboy athletes are headed to Stanford University’s Cobb Track & Angell Field for the Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational.Sean Fleming will represent the Cowboys in the 1,500 meters, where his season-best time is only three seconds shy of the NCAA regional qualifying time, while David Chirchir runs the 3,000-meter steeplechase, where he has already qualified for the regional with a time of 8:55.13.The majority of Oklahoma State’s athletes will run the 5,000 meters, including Fernandez, Ryan Vail, John Kosgei, Ryan Prentice, Colby Lowe and Matt Barnes-Smith. Alex Ruiz will run the 10,000 meters for the first time this year.

3:42 guy wrote:

What Yea.... wrote:

Look I know for a fact he took 2 solid weeks off in early April, at least! Why is he running this! He is not fit for this! What the hell are they doing!

just because he is on the list does NOT mean he is running. I know tons of people not going that are on the start lists.

any time schedule for the races?

IS THE DARKHORSE RACING????

They feel he is fit enough to get the AJR and if he fails he will at least be qualified for regionals.

Wouldn't it be something if Derrick got the record and beat Fernandez.