DIII Cross Country 2007

doesn't brian diemer coach at calvin?

Yes, I graduated. I'm taking a couple of years off the school thing. I have a job that starts next Monday, and I'm still in rehab for my knee, so I've got time to kill. Trust me, if my stupid local library would hurry up and get the books I ordered in, I'd be reading them instead of wasting all of my time here. Maybe just a little of it.

Just for fun, I was wondering what everyone thought the odds are that someone could bring in a stud that would make a significant contribution in the fall.

Looking at past results for nationals over the past several years, there's one thing for sure. The top runners are likely to be seniors or juniors for both men and women. For example, last year not one freshman (male or female) made all-american. In the women's race the top freshman was 37th, while the top freshman guy was 56th.

So, when making predictions (as this string intends to do) you have to take seriously who each team has coming back. (And there seems to be a strong class of seniors this fall which will make for a great national meet.)

But, can a talented freshman make a difference in team scoring?

So, what teams are likely to bring in big freshmen talent, and who are they?

Any thoughts?

The top freshman guy was Scott Lasch from Heidelberg--33rd overall (26th for team scoring)--so good freshmen can make an impact.

Something else to consider is what teams have a history of bringing non-varsity runners who have been training well the past year (or two, or three) and having success in varsity races as upperclassmen (for example, the 9th runner stepping up to be a good 4 or 5 runner as a jr/sr).

itcouldhappen wrote:

[L]ast year not one freshman (male or female) made all-american. In the women's race the top freshman was 37th.

To me (coached college women for 20+ years), this is an astounding statistic. Maybe a good thing: DIII women continuing to run and improve from their frosh to their jr/sr years. Or two good things: most of the talented and well-performed US high school girls going DI, and fewer wandering onto a DIII campus and becoming instantly competitive at a national level.

Still, I have to think it's a coincidence--a statistical anomaly. A DIII freshman woman can (still) make a huge and immediate national impact, in part because the college race distances are so close to the high school distances. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that a freshman runner will finish in the top 15 at DIII Nationals this year. I'd be amazed if I lost that bet...though I would have, in 2006!

pretb23 wrote: The top freshman guy was Scott Lasch from Heidelberg--33rd overall (26th for team scoring)--so good freshmen can make an impact.

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Missed him. Thanks for pointing out, pretb23. Even still though, 1 freshman guy in the top 50. Does this suggest that cross country is a sport in which maturity (physical) plays a significant role?

lease wrote: To me (coached college women for 20+ years), this is an astounding statistic. Maybe a good thing: DIII women continuing to run and improve from their frosh to their jr/sr years. Or two good things: most of the talented and well-performed US high school girls going DI, and fewer wandering onto a DIII campus and becoming instantly competitive at a national level.

Still, I have to think it's a coincidence--a statistical anomaly. A DIII freshman woman can (still) make a huge and immediate national impact, in part because the college race distances are so close to the high school distances. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that a freshman runner will finish in the top 15 at DIII Nationals this year. I'd be amazed if I lost that bet...though I would have, in 2006!

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Interesting thoughts, Lease. In your opinion, based upon your coaching experience, when it comes to recruiting for the D-III level, does it make sense to put more emphasis on high schoolers who may be more developmental than those who likely will get looks from D-1 programs?

itcouldhappen wrote:

Does this suggest that cross country is a sport in which maturity (physical) plays a significant role?

i think it's a synthesis of a few variables. first, physical maturity and additional years of training that are atypical of most high school programs. juniors and seniors in college have been exposed to a more significant amount of 8k/10k training than freshmen. i think an additional component is there's a period of mental acclimation to 8k/10k; you basically need to reassess how you process sensory data in races and how you mentally deal with the longer distance.

comparatively, girls are only moving up (both from training and racing perspectives) from 5k to 6k; in addition, there's less of a disparity in physical maturity. similarly, racing and understanding the difference between 5k and 6k is much easier from a mental standpoint.

Scott Lasch was actually a sophomore who did not run cross his freshman year but still had a a year of college running under his belt.

So the top true freshman was 56th, which still would help most teams I would think.

sigl 1st, kaul 2nd

nah, sigl won't beat kaul in cross. It'll go kaul, boggs, sigl.

are you kidding look at who won conference the last two years? Sigl run's away from him every time..

Results from past championships

2006 top freshmen in mens race - 33

2005 - 34

2004 - 14

2003 - 2

2002 - 22

2001 - 30

2000 - 59

1999 - 29

1998 - couldn't find

1997 -

1996 - 43

1995 - 24

1994 - 37

1993 - 10

1992 -

1991 -

1990 - 25

1989 -

1988 -

1987 - 18

So, in guessing that the missing year weren't very different, you can expect that the top freshmen will get 27.14th place or about 27th.

You can find complete results from any year on the D3 Historians site.

As for female freshman, I'd say that last year was a fluke (and maybe 2004 too) that the top freshman was so far back. In previous years, this was not the case. Examples from the past 7 years:

2006 - 37th (next was 52nd, 53, 59, 78)

2005 - 3rd (38, 45, 46, 52)

2004 - 30th (39, 42, 48, 49)

2003 - 6th (9, 10, 16, 22, 32, 35, 40)

2002 - 5th (6, 46, 59, 65)

2001 - 3rd (13, 18, 26, 28, 34, 49)

2000 - 10th (12, 19, 36, 42)

Actually in Minnesota girls still run the 4k at the high school level, so for them, it is a bigger challenge.

who cares

56th place, Paul Moran wasn't a true freshmam

the second coming...sike morphion.

skitterbug wrote:

the second coming...sike morphion.

Isn't he mainly a steeplechaser? I heard he was dropping 8:20s in practice but got hurt skydiving right before he was supposed to run his first steeple. Can anyone confirm?