Will Lagat upset Bekele in his run for the Jackpot this Friday in Paris?

it's on!

and kennedy's AR lives to see another day...

just as i said earlier...bekele is untouchable.

doubters be shamed!

Well that was an anti-climatic race...

And Bekele wins; never really close, though he worked for it.

Lagat is awesome, but not where he once was.

RE: Will Lagat upset Bekele in his run for the Jackpot this Friday in Paris? 7/17/2009 7:15AM - in reply to mighty porn stache Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

I, for one, became a bit concerned to see Lagat added to the field. Concerned because this addition to the field truly threatens Bekele's chances for winning the jackpot.

Lagat, who is nowhere near the jackpot in terms of competitive wins this season, must only be racing to improve his fitness before Worlds.

RIGHT ON!!!!

BEKELE 728 to Lagats 733

Having watched Bekele race at 5k several times this year, it is very difficult to tell what kind of shape Bekele is in. His 5k times aren't that great compared to previous years, but then again he is training through them so he has been a bit flat.

Personally, I am 80% sure Bekele will DESTROY the 3k field tonight, assuming he tapers off his training a bit for this race (which he will because he really wants that jackpot win). Still, that 20% variability, given Lagat's recent performances of 13xx, 332 and 146 make me nervous.

But I really don't think Lagat will win. Bekele is simply too strong. He has been closing his 5ks in 53s without being challenged the final stretch.

Today in press conference Bekele confidently stated:

“Maybe I’ll try for a World record. If not, then maybe for my personal record. It’s 7:25 so it’s not easy.”

I think Bekele will run 725-30 to win. I don't want Lagat to win only because It would be sad to see all the money NOT go anywhere. Bekele is the only male jackpot contender currently, as I understand.

Nice finish for Solinsky, first golden league meet ever I think and almost 3rd?!

Lagat still a pr in 7:33.1X from 7:33.51

Gutsy run by Lagat.

Once again the pacemaking was a little off but much better than the past few golden league meets

bekele made lagat look like a fool. he controlled the race and didn't let up to the pain. the way he ran today he very well could be the best of all time... def. top 5. great performance though. at the end one of the commentators said something about "oh, lagat, he's training for 800/1500m so doesn't quite have the endurance" which is irrelevant considering bekele is training for the 5k.

but Ventolin's equation said Lagat can run 7.27! I want my Jundo subs back!

messagequeen wrote:

just as i said earlier...bekele is untouchable.

doubters be shamed!

Very impressive performance, but what would the race have looked like without rabbits? I'd still give the edge to Bekele, but it's a much closer call. In a race like this, rabbits provide at least two nontrivial advantages to the frontrunner (here, Bekele): (1) they reduce air resistance for the frontrunner at a given speed through the use of human windbreaks, and (2) they effectively increase air resistance for the trailing runner (Lagat) by increasing the average distance between the frontrunner and the trailing runner throughout the race, thereby reducing the trailing runner's drafting advantage. In a sport like cycling, where the speeds are higher and the energy expended to overcome air resistance is greater, a frontrunner without rabbits would have almost no chance against a competitor with marginally less endurance but marginally better sprinting abiliity. In running, it's a much more interesting battle without rabbits, and a less interesting battle with rabbits. The obsession with fast times continues to hurt the sport. We're so used to the idea of having a couple of guys lead half to three-quarters of the race before dropping out that we fail to realize how silly it looks and how much it alters the competition.

There were no pacemakers in Beijing in the 5km, we know what happened there..

Sir Lance-alot wrote:yes it does, and much to ventolin's chagrin, Bekele "kills" Lagat (not the other way around as ventolin suggested might happen. Yes, he only suggested this would happen in a tactical race, but the odds of Bekele letting it become such a race were slim and none).

Those of picking Bekele did not underestimate the greatest distance runner (along with Geb) of all time.

err... don't flatter yourself

i didn't look up timetable & after seeing sanya's 49.3, just 0.1s outside her sb, the eurosport commentators blurb about "conditions being poor" were nonsense ( at that point in the meet ) - these guys are in a studio in england watching broadcast - they have as much clue about conditions as anyone watching on tv, i went out for a joint & 12-pack, expecting to come back to catch the last 2km of a 14'30 women's 5k

i came back to see kennster going thru in 4'58 & bernie 20m behind in ~ 5'01, with et al 10m further back

my instant reaction was that there had been a fall behind kennster with bernie & al & they were trying to catch up with kennster who'd stolen a march on them thru the fall, with bernie pushing too hard to catch up having got 10m lead on al

remember, conditions weren't that bad then & kennster went thru in 4'58, not 4'53 ( albeit i'll change my opinion immensely if i'm told the 4'58 splits were 2'33/2'25 )

as i don't believe this was the case, i expect at the autopsy to here bernie say he was "flat" & "coudn't get out of 3rd gear thruout"

don't cream yourself, kennster ran 7'28 off 4'58 in reasonable conditions

it's not the 8th wonder...

You don't like to admit you were wrong, do you?

Please don't reply the question is rhetorical!

jingle bowels wrote:

but Ventolin's equation said Lagat can run 7.27! I want my Jundo subs back!

i'm here because i'm a fan of american distance running, as i assume you are

i'll advise you a search my good friend :

webb ran 27'34 in '06 beating ritz by 1s in a planned race where they alternated latter laps to get a time - possibly 27'20 - 27'25 in hengelo/brussels shadowing some kembois'

he then ran 1'43.8 in '07 off an uncomfortably fast 50s -

probably 1'43.5 at worst off a 51.0 - 51.5 that day ( check the vid ) & possibly down to 1'43.0 in oslo/zurich off a bungei

( why not ?

asbel's run 1'43.17 & i've seen nothing to suggest he's a better 800 guy than webb )

if you were webb, his coach or a fan, the plan wouda been perfect if they coud combine both 800 speed & 10k endurance for a peak abilty in '08 ( i wonder why ? )

try out

1'43.8 / 27'34

& then

1'43.50 / 27'25

1'43.50 / 27'20

1'43.25 / 27'25

1'43.25 / 27'20

1'43.00 / 27'25

1'43.00 / 27'20

for 1500m potential goal in '08

if you are disappointed in the result or veracity ( there is no "webb" name attached to these times according to a computer program ), then send in a refund request...

Kenenisa bitch slapped lagat!... there were a lot of americans that were licking there chops...

Lagat would have been smoked by Abreham Cherkose.. but he got tripped up and fell in the first lap.

I hope cherkose makes the world champs team.. he has been working hard and this was his first outing.

Ouch.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

You don't like to admit you were wrong, do you?

Please don't reply the question is rhetorical!

he split 5'01 today

he probably did back to back splits of 5'00 with not too much rest time, back in training in '01/'04

not being able to go 5'00 indicates broken exhaust...

ventolin eat your heart out buddy. Lagat said in a flotrack interview HIMSELF that he was pushing all he had and just couldn't respond because bekele kept widening the gap. Its fine to be a fan of one athlete but don't try to discredit another athlete because one of your favorites lost convincingly.

Well, well! 7:28 DID do!

Which line does this 7:33 put Lagat on now? Lol

Must be infuriating that your number one boy doesn't stick to your rigid formula. Goes to show that while it is a good gauge, everyone is different and it is impossible to produce a system that works for most athletes, let alone all athletes.