Predictit is at 84% likelihood of a Blue senate.
Predictit is not science, but it is very very rarely that wrong.
Boys, this could be all over.
Bye Mitch.
Predictit is at 84% likelihood of a Blue senate.
Predictit is not science, but it is very very rarely that wrong.
Boys, this could be all over.
Bye Mitch.
agip wrote:
It's sounding like election day turnout in rural red counties is down 15-20%, which is the R's biggest problem.
Without Trump on the ballot, they don't give a carp.
Yes, I too read 538 instant updates. And as one of them said, those percentages are only based on what the assumed turnout will be
Dr. Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
It's sounding like election day turnout in rural red counties is down 15-20%, which is the R's biggest problem.
Without Trump on the ballot, they don't give a carp.
Yes, I too read 538 instant updates. And as one of them said, those percentages are only based on what the assumed turnout will be
I'm hearing the same thing from many sources, esp Dave Wasserman, who is one of the very best.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346626163540635648?s=20justaquestion wrote:
You have it backwards. Normally bad weather hurts Dems (have a less dedicated voter base than the Repubs, at least historically).
Good weather is good for Republican turnout...but is great for Democratic turnout.
Fat hurts wrote:
It has been a beautiful day here in Georgia. I was hoping for a blizzard.
Good weather is good for Republican turnout.
Not in this election. The R's are counting on big election day turnout to counter the D's big early voting push. So bad weather today would have hurt the R's a lot more than the D's.
agip wrote:
Predictit is at 84% likelihood of a Blue senate.
Predictit is not science, but it is very very rarely that wrong.
Boys, this could be all over.
Bye Mitch.
Agip calling it now - a Democrat sweep. NOTED.
agip wrote:
Predictit is at 84% likelihood of a Blue senate.
Predictit is not science, but it is very very rarely that wrong.
Boys, this could be all over.
Bye Mitch.
I expect Mitch will retire and hand over the seat he won to the Kentucky governor to fill with Mitch's hand picked successor. McConnell won't be able to stand losing power. And his dragging the R lemmings over the cliff this election cycle means the Rs will look to someone else to help them dig out of the abyss.
de-reagan wrote:
agip wrote:
Predictit is at 84% likelihood of a Blue senate.
Predictit is not science, but it is very very rarely that wrong.
Boys, this could be all over.
Bye Mitch.
I expect Mitch will retire and hand over the seat he won to the Kentucky governor to fill with Mitch's hand picked successor. McConnell won't be able to stand losing power. And his dragging the R lemmings over the cliff this election cycle means the Rs will look to someone else to help them dig out of the abyss.
The guy feeds off being the worst obstructionist pr!ck imaginable. LI honestly wouldn't be surprised if he would prefer to be the minority leader than majority leader.
After all, being majority leader means you have to deliver. Being the minority leader just means you sit there and say "nope."
Dr. Racket wrote:
de-reagan wrote:
I expect Mitch will retire and hand over the seat he won to the Kentucky governor to fill with Mitch's hand picked successor. McConnell won't be able to stand losing power. And his dragging the R lemmings over the cliff this election cycle means the Rs will look to someone else to help them dig out of the abyss.
The guy feeds off being the worst obstructionist pr!ck imaginable. LI honestly wouldn't be surprised if he would prefer to be the minority leader than majority leader.
After all, being majority leader means you have to deliver. Being the minority leader just means you sit there and say "nope."
depends if the Dems can get rid of the filibuster, or maybe force filibusters to be standing.
without the filibuster, mitch couldn't obstruct much.
but manchin has said he won't get rid of the filibuster so mitch probably will be able to obstruct.
Fat hurts wrote:
The R's are counting on big election day turnout to counter the D's big early voting push. So bad weather today would have hurt the R's a lot more than the D's.
Yeah, it's looking rawther bleak for the Dem candidates.
But TBF they had an uphill road from the git-go. In both November contests the GOP garnered considerably more votes.
Nah. Betting odds are heavily favoring the dems at the moment.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Pubs gonna jump off cliffs in 3...2...1
not so fast brah wrote:
Nah. Betting odds are heavily favoring the dems at the moment.
https://electionbettingodds.com/Pubs gonna jump off cliffs in 3...2...1
what are they (betting odds site) basing that (strong likelihood of Dem. win) on? Currently at this minute the Rs lead by the slightest of margin. Do they know something about late reporting counties that lean Democratic? Or something about mail-ins not yet counted? What?
yes yes yes yes wrote:
not so fast brah wrote:
Nah. Betting odds are heavily favoring the dems at the moment.
https://electionbettingodds.com/Pubs gonna jump off cliffs in 3...2...1
what are they (betting odds site) basing that (strong likelihood of Dem. win) on? Currently at this minute the Rs lead by the slightest of margin. Do they know something about late reporting counties that lean Democratic? Or something about mail-ins not yet counted? What?
most of the remaining votes to be counted are Atlanta votes.
Atlanta is heavily, heavily Dem.
Therefore it's 85% likely the Ds win.
agip wrote:
yes yes yes yes wrote:
what are they (betting odds site) basing that (strong likelihood of Dem. win) on? Currently at this minute the Rs lead by the slightest of margin. Do they know something about late reporting counties that lean Democratic? Or something about mail-ins not yet counted? What?
most of the remaining votes to be counted are Atlanta votes.
Atlanta is heavily, heavily Dem.
Therefore it's 85% likely the Ds win.
Oh, my my!
agip wrote:
yes yes yes yes wrote:
what are they (betting odds site) basing that (strong likelihood of Dem. win) on? Currently at this minute the Rs lead by the slightest of margin. Do they know something about late reporting counties that lean Democratic? Or something about mail-ins not yet counted? What?
most of the remaining votes to be counted are Atlanta votes.
Atlanta is heavily, heavily Dem.
Therefore it's 85% likely the Ds win.
It takes longer to count several 500,000 votes than 10,000 votes. Look at the map and scroll over. The large red counties are mostly done. Small red counties are still counting. Large blue counties have a lot of votes to go. DeKalb county at 82% dem still has some 150,000 votes to go (37% counted). Cobb county at 60% Dem still has 150,000 votes to go (54% counted).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/georgia-senate-runoffs-2021/de-reagan wrote:
agip wrote:
Predictit is at 84% likelihood of a Blue senate.
Predictit is not science, but it is very very rarely that wrong.
Boys, this could be all over.
Bye Mitch.
I expect Mitch will retire and hand over the seat he won to the Kentucky governor to fill with Mitch's hand picked successor. McConnell won't be able to stand losing power. And his dragging the R lemmings over the cliff this election cycle means the Rs will look to someone else to help them dig out of the abyss.
The current Governor of Kentucky is a Dem so I don’t see Mitch retiring anytime soon.
Raggedman wrote:
The current Governor of Kentucky is a Dem so I don’t see Mitch retiring anytime soon.
He has to appoint a Republican. He cannot appoint a Democrat.
Regardless of who wins, the losers' tears are gonna be like sweet nectar from God's teats.
So will some R senators have a sudden rethink tomorrow and not commit sedition?
Now that Trump has handed over house, wh, senate?
Would you go to bat for this guy?
Saving humanity from the climate crisis is still a long shot, but it's entirely possible that the result in Georgia is just what we needed for our great grandchildren to survive.