MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

https://mn.milesplit.com/signings/45943

https://mn.milesplit.com/signings/45960

I wonder how many times Sam Scott will break 15 next year

Wonder if Dan McCollor is related to the Tonka class of 2019 guy Adam McCollor, or Brian McCollor the Orono head coach.

Couple of other observations and awards from state

1. Robert Mechura lost his shoe around the 2 mile mark and ran in his sock for the last mile on some pretty gravely terrain. You can see this quite clear in the Mounds View footage. Tough Dude Award to him.

2. Great job to Mounds View for always putting out great footage of races with some quality tunes! It is appreciated. Best Video Award goes to you guys.

3. We saw how important it is to have a quality 6th or 7th runner. Someone is always going to have an off day and it puts so much more pressure on the 5th runner, especially when things are not going well. Rosemount 5th had a tough day and that was too bad. Wayzata's Dietrick gets the fastest 5th guy award.

4. St. Olaf is not a spectator friendly course. Hard to move around and hard to see much of the race. No award for you.

5. 5000 + fans there. Not enough shuttles and not moving fast enough - most people just ignored the recommendation and walked from the parking lot. Again no award for parking/shuttles.

6. I think we are all excited to see Abbey N. get challenged in a race... might not be until December. She gets the too good to be challenged award

7. Noah Breker looked pretty good for 4.8km, then fell apart. Really hope he can recover as we all know what he is capable when he is healthy. I am going to give him the Shouldn't be racing but is award.

8. Ryan Fries from Minnetonka won the award for "most guys passing him in the last mile" - 62. Ouch - hope he his not injured and just lacking some fitness. Went out pretty hard, was 23rd after the mile and finished 103.

9. Wayzata had the 3rd fastest 1st runner, fastest 2nd, fastest 3rd, 2nd fastest 4th, fastest 5th, fastest 6th, and 3rd fastest 7th compared to all teams. State champions award for them.

10. Aiden Jones has been consistent all year and won the big one. "Most consistent runner of the year for him" as well as state champion.

Currently Dyestat has 4 ranked runners ahead of Breker for the heartland region. It might be a stretch for more than one Mn runner to make NXN. Breker, Scott, Jones, Gilles, Gerres, should all be in the mix, not sure if Breker can bounce back in time. Won't throw Hazma in there because he should qualify with the team.

1. Was hoping he would get all state and even better. Found his youtube channel last week, hard worker and extremely motivated. Should be really appealing to college coaches as he continues to drop his times.

6. How close will another runner come to her at nxr? 15 seconds?

7. What how much fitness he lost vs. it being mental. Wayzata's Mcmillian also seemed to lose fitness while being in a boot.

8. He went for it, have to give him credit. Thought someone mentioned on here he had a nasty sickness back in early September? Sidelined him for a few weeks? At least he's not a senior, he should have a good track and next xc season.

10. I really wanted to pick him for state champ, but chickened out. He has let runners go at 2 mile mark before reeling them back in at times. This time he was leading at 2 miles and basically down to a 2 runner race. Cool to see his buddy Scott excited for him in the star Tribune picture. Will be interesting to follow Gerres and Jones at Minnesota next year as both should be able to score for Minnesota. Wonder where Scott will go? Scott has legitimate chances to break gale woods and state meet course record, as well as being the favorite at nxr next season.

Haerter from Edina has a YouTube channel too

Way too early team predictions 2023 - boys AAA (I excluded teams that I don’t think will make state)
1. Wayzata. Looking for their first ever three-peat. Returns 6 guys
2. Minnetonka. Looking to finally get on the podium after returning 5 guys + more depth, and seeing Lakeville North and Rosemount graduate most of their squad
3. Mounds View. Losing McArthur but brings back most of their varsity and some more depth beyond that. Good program and coach
4. Minneapolis Southwest. Barely missed state but only loses 2 guys. But they return all 3 of their state qualifiers including Sam Scott. They need to find a better fifth man to make the podium though
5. Bloomington Jefferson. Placed lower than expected at state (they were missing a couple of scorers), but they are losing only Lueth and looking to be at least 8-deep
6. Edina. Great program in the first place. Returns 5 varsity guys including 3 state qualifiers. Almost beat EP for a state berth.
7. Stillwater. Losing 3 scorers but they return enough talent to win their section again.
8. White Bear Lake. Returns 4 guys including their 1-3. Will be hungry after not going to state this year. Solid program
9. Lakeville South. Placed tenth at state. They return their 2-6 guys
10. East Ridge. Barely missed out on the state meet in 3AAA. Returning everyone including a strong number 1
11. Andover. Barely missed out on state but they return every scorer including a solid #1.
12. Blaine. Qualified for state but they lose their #2. Still has their #1 (Santiago) back.
13. Osseo. Barely missed out on state from a tough section but returns almost everyone including Sanvik
14. Lakeville North. Dominated their section and made the podium at state. They are losing their 1-5, but they bring back enough depth (plus some 8th graders that can step up) to get this team back to state. Other teams in this section are losing top seniors too. But Owatonna and Farmington could challenge this team for second place at sections.
15. Moorhead. Should qualify after barely missing out on state this year. They return almost everyone.
16. STMA. In the same section as Moorhead. They should qualify for state after barely missing out on state this year. They return almost everyone

Lakeville North was 3rd in 2005.

Wonder where Hamza will go to college. He is one of the few top guys that haven’t committed yet.
What about those Rosemount seniors.
And some Lakeville North seniors other than Casey and Stachewicz

No Noecker to be found in the championship race

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Way too early predictions for 2028 MN State HS Cross Country Meet…I am sorry, I got nothing. I think it is way too early.

OK but seriously this has been a great thread, gotta be top 10 for the year. Thanks fellas.

Luverne beat Perham and returns 4 of their top 5. If they find a fifth man, Luverne could challenge for a state title next year. They never won a title before. Luverne actually has a nice sophomore class too.

Park Rapids was very close to Perham in this race, and would have made the podium if they closed a 4-5 gap.

Orono returns their 1-4. They will make podium if they close the 4-5 gap next year.

Greenway has a bright future too. They have 3 freshmen and 1 8th grader on varsity

Some 2022/2023 state thoughts on the non-AAA teams before
all the NXR talk…

Class A-

2022: Not sure what happened to Perham- crushing at the mile then falls apart to get 3rd. Heritage and Luverne ran much smarter and ended up being a toss-up between them at the end. Wild that Heritage wins with top guy finishing just 28th overall. Tough for Park Rapids to finish 6 points off podium and now return just 2 of top 5 for next year.
Minnehaha also had disappointing day vs how I thought they would run.

2023: Of all team runners, just 26 were seniors which makes it seem next year will be more competitive to podium. Perham has got to be the favorite with all they return. #5 runners are important in every Class, but especially Class A where depth is rare. Heritage, Luverne, Greenway, Bertha-Hewitt, and St. Johns Prep all bring back 5+ of top 7, but all have large
45+ second gap between their #4 and #5 returners (from state times at least). All about finding that 5th guy. Love the Greenway call @MN Reve, they have the top #4 returner and are young.

Class AA-

2022: Mankato East winning after being 10th at the mile is insane- #3-#6 runners doing work that 2nd half of the race. Also crazy RR was ranked 9th going into the meet and then have all 7 runners PR to almost win it. Big Lake with the best top 3, but has been
missing a 4/5 all year and that caught up with them. Still solid 3rd place showing. Monticello was looking great early but #5 runner struggled last mile and gave up 50+ spots. Tough for Two Rivers to finish 11th – that Valleywood 3AA sections course gotta be fast which bumped them and Highland Park too far up the final rankings.

2023: Unlike Class A, AA loses a good amount of seniors (at least on the team side) and not might be as strong next year. East brings back 6/7 varsity guys and has to be repeat favorite. Orono returns top 4 and Belle Plaine loses Gerres but returns everyone else. Of other high-finishing teams, RR loses almost everyone, Delano loses top 2, and Highland Park loses top 4. St. Thomas and Worthington also lose a few, though they still could make
state from their tougher sections.

Will be interesting to follow Orono if Chapman can improve on his times last year as freshman, they could really make a splash if he is a solid front runner placing top 5 in state again.

Way too early top 25 AAA individuals for 2023
1. Sam Scott
2. Nolan Sutter
3. Hootie Hage (will get back to the top 10 which is where he finished last year and freshman year. This year it was just very competitive and many seniors are graduating)
4. Daniel McCollor
5. Will Weber (him and McCollor can finish in either order)
6. Caleb Dickel
7. Robert Mechura
8. Cade Sanvik
9. Sean Fries (bold prediction but almost every year we see a soph to make the top 10 even if he doesn’t get all-state the year before. Weber did that. and there will need to be 2 Tonka guys to replace Gilles and Westerlund)
10. Landon Hering
11. Gannon Farrens
12. Andrew Schultz (will redeem himself after not finishing well in this race this year)
13. Ryan Fries (if healthy. Maybe he can even beat his younger brother in his final MSHSL race like he used to all the time)
14. Tyler Kissell
15. Luke Williams
16. River Santiago
17. Nate Shultz
18. Hayes MacMillan (will have plenty of time to get healthy)
19. Jace Haerter
20. Ryan Gwaltney
21. Parker Dietrick
22. Dylan Riniker
23. Nate Meyer
24. Owen Kalmes (looks to be the new team leader with McArthur gone)
25. Aidan Gomes

This aged well….

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