MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

It’s worth nothing that 14:57 5ker and 8:54 2 miler Noah Breker was very banged up. It was posted today that he had a very bad respiratory illness and an ankle injury where he hadn’t been able to put weight on it for a few days leading up to the state meet.
Hope this can cancel out the talks of “he burnt out” Very unfortunate set of circumstances for the 3200 state champ to happen in his senior year of XC.

There has been none of that talk here and most seem to know he's been sick/banged up since a little before sections. Unfortunate timing, but I hope he's able to be closer to himself at nxr/nxn.

It would awesome to see him just qualify for NXN.

Also the speed ratings for state meet are already up

http://tullyrunners.com/XC2022/Ratings_Nov05.htm#Minnesota

Does anyone else get annoyed that the news buys into MNSHSL claim that their was no state meet in 2020. I think TCRC so graciously put on the alternative state meet with their own money that it should be counted. I am reading articles about Jade Rypkema “finally” winning cross country meet as a senior- nope Jade Rypkema is a 2x CC state champ. And Nova Classical Academy was the small school winner again! These kids deserve the recognition!

Also good job everyone yesterday- so much fun to watch!

This claim seems like an insult especially to programs like the Prior Lake boys. And Ethan Vargas the 2021 grad. 2020 was the only year PL was the best team in the state. This is why this claim is unfair. No other PL boys team did better at state than their 2019 team actually (5th place).
PL is a 1-man show now.

Wonder if PL will ever win another state title. They got last in the conference but I think they will continue to slowly but surely work their way back up. They are extremely young these days. They have only 1 senior and Hage is the only junior.

Edina races like that too, or at least used to race like that. Check out the 2017 state meet results / splits for the boys race.

7th at the 1600 mark, and finished 3rd

http://wayzatatiming.com/crosscountry/2017/MSHSLState/#event2

The reason why Wayzata lacked depth that they usually have is that, although they returned 4 scorers from state (plus Kissell who ran a sub-16 at RunningLane which makes it 5 studs for this year), they lost or graduated 7 of their top 13 guys (one of them was Hussein). That’s so many that Salatino (their 7th man) was only their 13th guy last year.

mn.milesplit.com

Minnesota High School Boys Rankings | Cross Country 20215000 Meter Run

Open link

Sounds like Hayes McMillan (their new guy) is from Canada, there are no wayzata results on him until this season. That was a solid add to the team. Hopefully he gets healthy for nxr and Nxn if they make it
http://athleticsmanitoba.com/events/files/pdf/results/21_bison_twilight_4_results.pdf
Over here there is also Hudson McMillan, he is on the Wayzata team too. So it makes it even more likely that it isn’t a different guy with the same name.

My reflection on the AAA state meet:

1. Aidan Jones is the real deal. He has a chance to finish high at NXR and do big things nationally.

2. NXR is still wide open despite Jones’ success at state. I think that Breker, Scott, Gilles could all steal spots from Jones at NXR. Athletes from other states such as Heidesch from IA and Birnbaum from SD could steal spots as well from him.

3. Minnetonka almost surprised people. If R. Fries maintained his position with a mile to go, they would’ve finished second or third, but I think they have no shot to make nationals.

4. Rosemount could win NXR. If Schultz returns to full health, Rosemount could challenge Wayzata, Dowling, and Stevens Point for the win.

5. Wayzata is the best team in the heartland region. With the last point being said… Wayzata looks unbeatable right now, and they seem to be getting even better, with Mccolor having not the performance we expected, we saw Mohamed and Weber step up and run amazing.

I have many more takeways, NXR will be great though.

Couple of big commitment announcements as well

1. Simeon Birnbaum to Oregon. Not an MN guy but big news for the Heartland region.

2. Emmett Gerres to Minnesota. I think he could have gone to much higher caliber D1 schools, but great commitment for the Gophers.

Yeah Birnbaum would beat Breker whether healthy or not. He ran a sub-4 last spring

At Heartland it will be a battle between Birnbaum, Noecker from NE (if he does NXR) and Haughton from KS for first.

Noecker didn’t run against any competition whatsoever this year. He recently broke Seth Hirsch’s state meet record at Nebraska

Looking forward to seeing the entries list for NXR

Found a couple of more commitments
https://mn.milesplit.com/signings/45976
https://mn.milesplit.com/signings/46061
https://mn.milesplit.com/signings/45975
https://mn.milesplit.com/signings/45977
Is this Will Weber’s sister?

Yes.

Fun fact: they both left St. Olaf yesterday with a gold team championship medal, with Wayzata winning both the boy’s and the girl’s titles.

Along with Breker, Scott, and Giles, I would through Gerres in there too. Especially considering he ran a 5:13 last 1800m on Saturday. I wonder if he would of been able to catch Jones if Gerres was in AAA... Will be exciting this year at NXR. Cant wait.

Some highlights of the state meet:
1- Mulrooney was by far the biggest surprise for the top 10 finish. Like I said, first time at the state meet too. But now Rosemount has exactly what they need. A front runner. To qualify for NXN as a team, Schultz needs to stay with the Rosemount pack, this pack needs to do a little better than at state, and Mulrooney probably needs to beat some more superstars in this region.
2- Gerres’s time was not far off Jones. Will be interesting to see what happens when they face each other. Both could challenge for an NXN bid
3- Minnetonka’s 4th place was expected. Next year even with Gilles/Westerlund gone, they should be able to place higher, with the Fries brothers potentially competing for top 10 spots like Gilles and Westerlund did. They could have a better 3-5 than they did this year. Some sophs that didn’t run at state may score for them next year.
4- Hage and McArthur were the best in their classes 2 years ago and finished in the top 10 in 2020 and 2021, but neither of them finished in the top 10 this year. This was actually somewhat expected, not that they got a lot of worse, it’s that there weren’t many seniors up there last year, and some people emerged out of nowhere. Hage should be able to get back up to the top 10 next year with so many seniors gone
5- Jefferson was ranked in the top 10 after Griak going forward. And those top 10 rankings included Southwest which didn’t make state. They didn’t place top 10 here. They were missing 2 of their scorers but everyone that raced really showed the team’s potential for the future with only Lueth gone.
6- Washburn’s 6th place was higher than expected. Just like Jones’s win. I’m sure that this team effort made Jones even happier. Great to see that they placed this high because this team doesn’t qualify for state very often. I think the high placement of their 2/3 really helped. Their 4/5 kept doing what they were doing. Southwest got the second spot in the section next year. If they find a 5th they could be something special.
7- Stillwater lost to Mounds View for the first time this season but they tied where they placed last year. For how many guys they graduated, this is really good. This is also one of the few years they had no one in the top 25. Riniker and/or Foote should be able to place in the top 25 next year.
8- All of the top 5 teams in the Heartland region are 5-man teams, but Wayzata will be kind of an exception if McMillan returns to full form.
9- I was not sure if more than 1 or 2 Rosemount guys could make all state. Turns out that 4 of them did. Could have had 5 if Schultz was healthy
10- It’s a little disappointing to see Rock Ridge come up just short of their first AA title. Rock Ridge has a lot of seniors too while Mankato East has just 1. Rock Ridge is a second-year school that Virginia and Eveleth-Gilbert was combined into. How often do 2 schools combine into 1? A first state title in the sport would have been cool for a first - year school

Yeah Gerres is no joke. And the 2 sophomores who got 3rd and 4th are maybe even better in 2 years.

For the track times of the Wayzata guys, their conference/section/state meet finishes were incredible. They must have had a solid progression in the summer and the season