The "opening" of TX brings to the forefront for the first time the interesting statistical and policy question of when is the right time to reopen?
Looking at Georgia's stats (we are one of the worst at everything btw):
Ages 65+ make up 14% of the population and have accounted for 46% of COVID hospitalizations and 78% of all COVID-related deaths in the state.
We have 1.5 million residents aged 65+.
We have now given at least one dose to 835K of those aged 65+. (56% of the group)
Of those 65+, 118K have tested positive for COVID (many more have likely had it, but not tested - some estimates would put it at 2-3x). (8-24%)
The AJC had a poll where 34% of GA residents would not get the vaccine. There was not a demographic breakdown, but I would assume it would skew toward younger and more in the 65+ would want the vaccine, but not nearly all (20-25%???).
In a few weeks, likely more than 70-80% of Georgians aged 65+ will have either received the vaccine or have some immunity due to having COVID. There is some overlap in the groups, but I think it would be a good estimate.
With around 70-80% of the most most likely group to be hospitalized or die from COVID being vaccinated (reducing deaths and severe disease to near zero), is it safe to open up Georgia? If not, what do the vaccination stats need to be in order to open up safely?