Lagat is my favorite guy in the sport. But I don't see how he beats Bekele, who seems to be getting back close to his peak.
Lagat is my favorite guy in the sport. But I don't see how he beats Bekele, who seems to be getting back close to his peak.
I think KB will pull it off tonight, but think he is far away
from 12:37 shape. in fact, he will never set a WR on the track again.
irun wrote:
Well, let's look at some fact first, along with their associated conditions, time of the year, and how much pressure is on for a rabbited race.
Kenenisa Bekele has ran a world leading time of 12:56.23 and other 5000m races in 13:00 and 13:04. Each race he got faster, so it might be expected that Bekele could be in near 12:50 shape for this race.
At the same time, we know that Lagat ran 13:03 in late May, 7:35 in early June, and recently 3:32.56 and 1:46.84. We haven't seen any demonstrations of powerful speed from Bekele yet, although I never watched any of his 5k victories, and I'm not sure how fast he closed those races.
The fact is, Lagat is in good enough shape to run at 13:00 pace and still finish with a strong 1500m-specialist kick. This could set up to be an interesting dual between Bekele and Lagat tomorrow and at world champs and even thereafter would be interesting.
Like I said in another thread, my prediction for this race is that Lagat will beat Bekele with his superior kicking speed, at the same time breaking Bob Kennedy's AR. Here's what I think it will look like:
1. Lagat 7:29.x
2. Bekele 7:29.y
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.
.
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?. Solinsky 7:33
Good little summation irun. Fact that KB has looked vulnerable in all races this year. Yes, Rome is best these runs and that is fair assumption that he could run 12:50 now. I am surprised if he has enough to run away from Lagat or outkick him. I hear he look very good in Tanger. KB is nervous of this race! he talk of WR but he in no shape to be anything like this and he know it!
Yanqui wrote:
Lagat is my favorite guy in the sport. But I don't see how he beats Bekele, who seems to be getting back close to his peak.
If Lagat is your favourite then you will be happy with the result tonight. Lagat to win. He could run under 7:30 if he needed to. Before Pre everyone say he could not beat Kipchoge who had run 7:28 before. He beat him easily and maybe just maybe beats Bekele easily also. He's never really been tested in a fast 3000. I have a feeling he will cope comfortably. We write about his 800 of only 1:46 but he must have great economy to be so comfortable at 1:50-51 in 15000....
Lagat is in mid 12:50 shape. If that wind hadn't had been so high in New York, those three would have run around 12:54. It was costing them almost a second per lap.
the430miler wrote:
Moore OK Runner wrote:430 - I'm curious about your opinion on Webb and the 5000. I know you respect his miling ability but what do you think he could run for 5000?
webb is the best white runner in the history of the world. period. his best event is the mile, and that is why he trains solely for it.
we all saw him destroy ritz (a 5k/10k specialist) at standford 2 years ago in the 10k, and webb hadnt even ran trained or ran a race over 3k yet that year.
if razko just slightly modified webbs training regimen to focus more on speed endurance instead of speed, just for 2 months, then webb would break bob kennedys 5k american record on his first attempt. id say his first attempt would be around 12:40 (shattering bks record by 18 seconds) and enough for 4th place all time.
if webb focused on the 5k for only 1 year, and trained at altitude instead of in virginia beach, then he would break bekeles world record and run sub 12:30.
this isnt the record he needs to be focusing on, primarily because he is well capable of breaking the world record in the mile and breaking the 3:40 barrier. when he does it, it will NOT shock the world. only leave the intelligent running enthusiast like me saying "its about time, he should have already done it if it wasnt for arrogant letsrun posters encouraging him to run longer distances and run high mileage"
-430miler
It´s nice to have you back, 430. We have missed your retarded trolling masterpieces. Nobody else in the history of LetsRun has been able to write such complete shit and still sound like they really mean it.
agree wholeheartedly!
ukathleticscoach wrote:
'of course he can't match their endurance, but it's still good enough to have got him got him close to 12'50 at sometime in his career - like hicham'
Maybe he had the potential to go a bit quicker but he never did. El G did 12.50 but Lagat is 9 sec down:
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=0/sex=M/all=y/legal=A/disc=5000/detail.htmlAs for the Lagat having not having the opportunity to run a fast 3'000m. Well 25 runners have run sub 7:30 - even Bekele's slower brother - so they managed to find a find a fast race!
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=0/sex=M/all=y/legal=A/disc=3000/detail.htmlNothing against Lagat if it where a mile I would have him as favourite over KB
I'm really looking forward to this race!
hicham set out to run 12'50 on his debut & was doing it, but cherono outkicked & again he got dragged to a 12'50 in that paris '03 race
bernie has never stated any solid target ( apart from kennedy's record when people kept asking him, but that is a trivial target ) & races not time-trials
you obviously weren't in london '06 watching from the stands when he cruised round shadowing kennster for 4900m & then exploded past him
that day, if pace had been much faster he wouda easily gone close to 12'50
Bekele is on as a 1/4 favourite with Betfair (you risk £10 to win £2.5).
Mind you they are not so hot on seeding* for athletics. Last year I got much better odds on Bolt to win the 100m This is after he had set th WR in the rain and after Gay pulled his hamstring!
At the moment there are no odds on Lagat.(its dependent on people placing bets*) The field v Lagat is on 1/1 £10 risk for £10 win.
Lagat just ran a tick under 1:47 last week in Lausanne and is not looking sharp. Remember that Webb goes 1:43 when he's sharp and 1:47 when he's not.
Bekele was shaky until last week, when he crushed the field in Rome. The best kick, mid-season form, and an easy win over Lagat.
Lagat also just ran 3:32 in Morocco. If 1:46.84 was the best he's capable of (which it's not, I'm sure he was training right trhough that 'race'), but he's still capable of a 3:32 in a crappy meet, then that indicates his endurance is out of this world. This will be no walk in the park for KB or Lagat. This will be a battle.
OUr last post crossed on the net - just read yours:
'bernie has never stated any solid target ( apart from kennedy's record when people kept asking him, but that is a trivial target ) & races not time-trials
you obviously weren't in london '06 watching from the stands when he cruised round shadowing kennster for 4900m & then exploded past him'
======================================
Now you are making some good points!
That was 3 years ago and you have to slow up a bit at some point - also think KB has improved his tactics since then.
But maybe Lagat can do it again?
You could place a bet right now - as nobody has placed on Lagat set the odds to 2.0 so we both have an even bet:
I, for one, became a bit concerned to see Lagat added to the field. Concerned because this addition to the field truly threatens Bekele's chances for winning the jackpot.
Lagat, who is nowhere near the jackpot in terms of competitive wins this season, must only be racing to improve his fitness before Worlds.
Having watched Bekele race at 5k several times this year, it is very difficult to tell what kind of shape Bekele is in. His 5k times aren't that great compared to previous years, but then again he is training through them so he has been a bit flat.
Personally, I am 80% sure Bekele will DESTROY the 3k field tonight, assuming he tapers off his training a bit for this race (which he will because he really wants that jackpot win). Still, that 20% variability, given Lagat's recent performances of 13xx, 332 and 146 make me nervous.
But I really don't think Lagat will win. Bekele is simply too strong. He has been closing his 5ks in 53s without being challenged the final stretch.
Today in press conference Bekele confidently stated:
“Maybe I’ll try for a World record. If not, then maybe for my personal record. It’s 7:25 so it’s not easy.”
I think Bekele will run 725-30 to win. I don't want Lagat to win only because It would be sad to see all the money NOT go anywhere. Bekele is the only male jackpot contender currently, as I understand.
Meant to say it would be sad not to see Bekele share in the pot, as the only male contender.
massagequeen wrote:
I don't want Lagat to win only because It would be sad to see all the money NOT go anywhere. Bekele is the only male jackpot contender currently, as I understand.
Bekele will win it.
Either he burns the field off with a couple of laps to go (less likely) or outkicks whoever is on his shoulder on the final bend (more likely).
KB will try and run it out of Lagat. I like the quotes KB was throwing out trying to say he wasn't as fast anymore. Didn't he try that shite after he lost the XC worlds?? Some article was saying he couldn't lift a plate of fruit.....or some goofy crap. Track season hit and he lit everyone up then.
hahhaa, just watch bekele's final 400 from his recent 1256. he's got that spring back in his step. he cruises to 53.x his last 400. bekele will OWN the 3k today.shit.
ChiTown Hustler wrote:
KB will try and run it out of Lagat. I like the quotes KB was throwing out trying to say he wasn't as fast anymore. Didn't he try that shite after he lost the XC worlds?? Some article was saying he couldn't lift a plate of fruit.....or some goofy crap. Track season hit and he lit everyone up then.
haha, i remember that article. It was quoting him saying that he had no power and could not lift his coffe table.
Like many have said, if the race is sub-7:30 I think KB wins. If it is over then it is tough to call. Both are great runners with strong kicks who are in good shape now.
That said, I don't understand how so many people have said that Lagat will win off a slow pace with a 53 second last lap. Bekele can kick in 53 too.
I'm going with Bekele for the win, no matter what the pace: he wants the money badly.
It's fairly windy in Paris today, only 45.2 for Wariner in the 4. I'm gonna say 7:34 for Lagat, taking Bekele on the last lap.