perspectivation wrote:
1) Fernandez has no 5K mark
2) Remember pre-nationals? Coach Smith may have wanted him to face less fierce comp. at this point for less pressure and to make sure he has a shot a winning.
That's what I thought initially, and I was pissed. but it would seem to me that Stanford has set Heat 2 up as an elite collegiate heat. That's the only way I can explain them not putting Derrick, who is aiming for Rupp's AJR of 13:37, in the "fastest" heat.
Refresh, or go to this PDF:
http://www.sml1.com/recordtiming/stanford/pjc09/pjc_accepted.pdf
Catch Me If You Can wrote:
That's what I thought initially, and I was pissed. but it would seem to me that Stanford has set Heat 2 up as an elite collegiate heat. That's the only way I can explain them not putting Derrick, who is aiming for Rupp's AJR of 13:37, in the "fastest" heat.
But Chelanga's in heat 1 and he's in college.
Ryan Vail was our top senior runner at World XC. I'd hardly call him a chump. He's likely in sub 13:30 shape. Derrick should be primed for close to that too. Again, not a chump. Fernandez was supposed to have taken the entire month of April off from hard running and only cross-trained. I'm assuming recovery went better than expected since he's actually running, but I would not put huge expectations on him in his first 5000. Him and Derrick should be in a close battle for that American Junior record.
Had Fernandez been uninjured, I would have expected him to be able to run 13:15 or better in a fast, loaded race. However, I wouldn't be disappointed now as long as he ran under 13:35.
Heard through the grapevine wrote:
But Chelanga's in heat 1 and he's in college.
Yes, but it would be a monumental diss to him to put him in the 'B' heat. He has probably run faster indoors in the 5 and outdoors in the 10 than anyone in Heat 1. While I think guys like German/Derrick/Coe would beat at least 2/3 of that field, they haven't yet proven themselves over this distance.
Catch Me If You Can wrote:
Yes, but it would be a monumental diss to him to put him in the 'B' heat. He has probably run faster indoors in the 5 and outdoors in the 10 than anyone in Heat 1. While I think guys like German/Derrick/Coe would beat at least 2/3 of that field, they haven't yet proven themselves over this distance.
Didn't Derrick place 4th at NCAA 5000, less than 4 seconds behind Chelanga, or was that just a dream?
Puskedra is in the 10000m section 2.
These heats are pretty whack. Hopefully they get changed before the meet on Saturday.
time schedule for the races?
German beat Ritz 1600m in HS by 5 seconds, his 3200m by 10 seconds.....why would he not have been able to run faster than him over 5000m again?
Catch Me If You Can wrote:
layoffs from training wrote:Hopefully German will be in the fast heat.
If German isn't in the fast heat, the race directors should be murdered.
Operating as I am under the assumption that German is racing: German wins. 13:11
I don't care who shows up or how injured he is/was. Dave Smith would not throw him to the wolves here without believing he can hold his own. And with his conservative approach to German predictions, if Smith thinks he can hold his own, German should be expected to kill the field.
Dave Smith and German requested to run in the second heat. Maybe you should stop talking out of you ass and threatening peoples lives.
I'm shocked no one has brought up the fact that he's coming off a stress fracture.
dating for runners wrote:
German beat Ritz 1600m in HS by 5 seconds, his 3200m by 10 seconds.....why would he not have been able to run faster than him over 5000m again?
Pretty much on the same day too within about 3 hours, too.
he is not coming off a stress fracture
dating for runners wrote:
German beat Ritz 1600m in HS by 5 seconds, his 3200m by 10 seconds.....why would he not have been able to run faster than him over 5000m again?
German IS better at the shorter stuff, but this is 5K.
Again, German has no 5K mark, but Ritz did run 13:44? in high school and i believe that was done in a solo effort.
Could German have beaten that, of course maybe, but he didn't try so who knows. And Ritz's race as high schooler (without the benefit of a physical and mental strength gain from a freshman NCAA cross season) at world junior cross was still superior to Germans as a college freshman.
I'm not saying that Ritz is indeed better than German over 5K as a freshman, but I am saying that German is not CLEARLY better than Ritz based off of the performances by each at the respective stages. German is clearly better over the shorter distances at this point, but 5K is yet to be determined and i think 8-10K cross leans towards Ritz.
I hope to hell German blazes one, I'm all for whoever our top runners are and wish them well. Germans legs will have the opportunity to clear up this statement this weekend.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
Catch Me If You Can wrote:Yes, but it would be a monumental diss to him to put him in the 'B' heat. He has probably run faster indoors in the 5 and outdoors in the 10 than anyone in Heat 1. While I think guys like German/Derrick/Coe would beat at least 2/3 of that field, they haven't yet proven themselves over this distance.
Didn't Derrick place 4th at NCAA 5000, less than 4 seconds behind Chelanga, or was that just a dream?
Yeah but we know it was not an all out race like stanford will be.
Sam has 13:19 & 27:28.
Derrick will likely run 13:36-13:42 and could do about 28:30ish for 10K right now.
that's a big difference.
The Machine wrote:
Dave Smith and German requested to run in the second heat. Maybe you should stop talking out of you ass and threatening peoples lives.
Figure of speech. Much like "talking out of your ass." Or "talking out of you ass," as you so mis-spelledly put it.
I pretty mcuh figured German would be in the 2nd heat. That's why I mentioned what a travesty this is. Dave Smith is just trying to shelter his guys the same way he did in XC, and it's just as annoying now as it was then.
I predicted a 13:07 in January for German by the end of the summer and still feel this is possible.
If he runs a German race then my prediction for this weekend is under 13:20 and a clear win, or if it's a Smith race then 13:35 and still should win but more dangerous.
Catch Me If You Can wrote:
The Machine wrote:Dave Smith and German requested to run in the second heat. Maybe you should stop talking out of you ass and threatening peoples lives.
Figure of speech. Much like "talking out of your ass." Or "talking out of you ass," as you so mis-spelledly put it.
I pretty mcuh figured German would be in the 2nd heat. That's why I mentioned what a travesty this is. Dave Smith is just trying to shelter his guys the same way he did in XC, and it's just as annoying now as it was then.
I'm not going to point out your typo because I'm the bigger man.
Smith isn't trying to shelter his guys from anything. He doesn't think that they will do as well running 64's (which is the pace the top section will be rabbited in) as running 65's (the pace the 2nd heat will be rabbited in). Apparently you know better than him. Have your friends on German's high school team been feeding you secret assessments of his fitness too?
As someone in a position to know a little more than the average bear about the situation (I suppose you'll just have to trust me on that) I think that you don't know nearly as much as you think you do and are often off the mark with your theories.
The Machine wrote:
I'm not going to point out your typo because I'm the bigger man.
Smith isn't trying to shelter his guys from anything. He doesn't think that they will do as well running 64's (which is the pace the top section will be rabbited in) as running 65's (the pace the 2nd heat will be rabbited in). Apparently you know better than him. Have your friends on German's high school team been feeding you secret assessments of his fitness too?
As someone in a position to know a little more than the average bear about the situation (I suppose you'll just have to trust me on that) I think that you don't know nearly as much as you think you do and are often off the mark with your theories.
I don't doubt that you know more about the situation than I do, because I know nothing about German's current shape or workouts. What I do know (and by "know" I mean "believe") is that German would beat almost everybody in that 1st heat on a bad day. If he's not in shape to run with them I don't think Smith would even have him racing (he hates to put German in a scenario that could harm his confidence). 65s is 13:32 or so, right in the range of times German would have run in a 5k last year. If they go through in 8:40, German will close in about 4:05.
Coe said he's hoping 64s vs. 65s. If that's what he thinks he's ready for, you better believe German's up for it, too.