RE: Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market...

Read what I posted carefully. You clearly insinuated that the bottom was reached when you started this thread.[/quote]

Incorrect.

you start a thread entitled, "Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market..." and then say you never implied we were near a bottom?

Surprise! wrote:

you start a thread entitled, "Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market..." and then say you never implied we were near a bottom?

Yes. Go back and read my initial posts -- I clearly stated I wasn't calling a bottom -- just hoping for eveyone's sake that they didn't miss it if it did indeed turn out to be a bottom. As is often the case, I am misunderstood. I was being sincere in wishing everyone financial greatness in 2009, not crowing about my situation or slamming those who (at the time of the initial post) were out of the market while the DOW was back up to 8,800.

Make money in gold if you want (not for me though) or real estate or CDs or however you want to make money. I don't need for everyone to do things the way I do it (though that would be smart).

Just because you end your predictions with "who knows?" (financially called "hedging," and in the real world called "covering your ass") doesn't mean you're not making any predictions.

Otherwise you're saying you started an absurdly pointless post just to say "the market may go up, or the market may go down."

I'm going to cry sometime when the market rebounds 5% and you shove in our faces that you were right all along.

Gov't and Obama pull out the stops to stop the bleeding...

say no nationalization. Creates a late day rally that so far is beginning to fizzle out. Still down a 1% after literally moving heaven and earth.

incredible- must be all the boomers selling. All of that money is about to compete for goods. Can you say inflation?

mano negra wrote:

Just because you end your predictions with "who knows?" (financially called "hedging," and in the real world called "covering your ass") doesn't mean you're not making any predictions.

Otherwise you're saying you started an absurdly pointless post just to say "the market may go up, or the market may go down."

I'm going to cry sometime when the market rebounds 5% and you shove in our faces that you were right all along.

1) Nope. I clearly stated I wasn't making a prediction. I've clearly stated for years that I don't believe anyone can time the market, so why would I start now?

2) If wishing people financial greatness, especially in the face of troubling economic times is "absurdly pointless" then I guess I'll wear that label. I hope the best for all of you...all the time.

3) No need to cry when the market goes back up (and it WILL), and of course I will be right. I have a LONG time to be proven right -- 17 years in fact. Worst case scenario for me is if I'm proven WRONG then instead of retiring at 59 1/2, I will have to retire at 62 (when I can start taking Social Security). If that happens, I'll probably still stop working full-time by age 60, and work part-time until age 62. My wife is a year younger and she can work another year -- only fair since she will live longer than me anyway (statistically).

Peeps, they're squeezing you buddy. No way I'd make a prediction like the market falls HARD today, not with the options and futures expiry and the other blatant manipulation. I was out this morning. Figured we may get a reversal. You may end up being right, but it's not a risk I'm taking. Doesn't mean the bloodletting is close to being over.

Next couple of weeks will be interesting. This is the second time in three months the market is retesting Oct 2002 lows (start of the most recent bull market). In Nov the market rallied back hard after dropping to 1997 levels intraday. It looks like the S&P will close below its Oct 2002 bottom of 776 today though the market has rallied off of its intraday lows. If the market fails to stage a strong rally in the next few weeks there could be a very steep decline coming. The next support level on the S&P is around 450 when the market hit its lows in '94 and built a base for the mid/late 90s bull market.

sagarin wrote:

Peeps, they're squeezing you buddy. No way I'd make a prediction like the market falls HARD today, not with the options and futures expiry and the other blatant manipulation. I was out this morning. Figured we may get a reversal. You may end up being right, but it's not a risk I'm taking. Doesn't mean the bloodletting is close to being over.

that is exactly what I'm saying. Every play in the playbook.

lets stop talking small stuff. I see desperation building. Bad sign. Market is still at a loss.

Down 1.5 now, terrible.

Californian wrote:

Next couple of weeks will be interesting. This is the second time in three months the market is retesting Oct 2002 lows (start of the most recent bull market). In Nov the market rallied back hard after dropping to 1997 levels intraday. It looks like the S&P will close below its Oct 2002 bottom of 776 today though the market has rallied off of its intraday lows. If the market fails to stage a strong rally in the next few weeks there could be a very steep decline coming. The next support level on the S&P is around 450 when the market hit its lows in '94 and built a base for the mid/late 90s bull market.

yes, there was someone on this board that said if we blow through support tuesday we're going much lower.

The problem is that we're back here again. Made good points about indicators being lower. Ugly week, looks like down 8%.

Next week chaos. Fed threw everything at it. Bernanke is out of bullets, he's now throwing the gun at the problem. Next he's gonna have to start biting it along with Giethner.

doubt it will work.

I still stand with my prediction from October 8, 2008:

...the Dow will keep dropping in an unsteady fashion, with a temporary halt before Christmas somewhere around 7000, plus or minus 500.

Then as the economy fails to turn around and actually gets slowly worse as the quarterly jobs reports and quarterly revenues fall and as certain businesses close doors, each of these reports will shift the dow lower yet.

I predict a levelling off as the down approaches 6000, plus or minus 500, sometime between mid-2009 to mid-2010. It will jiggle up and down for a few months but remaining in this range.

While this is going on we might have a less than one week temporary dip as low as 5000, plus or minus 500, but that won't stick because there will be a rally the next time someone sneezes the tiniest upbeat news because waiting in the wings will be people with cash burning a hole in their pocket who are the undervalued stock bargainhunters.

Once we pull out of the lowest of the low, we will move about 1000 points higher to around the mid-7000s for about 6 months.

After that we will come up to the 9000 range and hover for a year or two waiting for all the economic indicators to recover, which might take a while...

I said 5 years until a complete turnaround and back to 11,000.

*** My rationale -- this is much deeper and much longer than the dot-com burst of late 1999-2000. That slide was NOT predicted to be severe, yet look what happened -- The dow dropped from a temporary (less than 1 year) high of 13,000, down to 10,000 between end of October and December. Then over the next year it reached a stable bottom in the low 8000s, with a very short temporary dip to the low 7000s. Finally when it was over, even with better economic indicators it still took well over 2 years until things got better than the upper 9000s to low 10,000s.

*** So there's my prediction -- general flat line at around 6000, hovering there for a while. Also a partial week dip to around 5000 just once or twice. And a long wait for things to get better.

I haven't read in detail this entire thread but I have skimmed it and seen quite a lot of reliance on technical analysis which while useful for demarcating trends should only be understood as a graphic illustration of underlying market dynamics. I think there is danger of using too much technical analysis and not factoring in a much more valuation/commodity/total information perspective. Using technical analysis as the end-all-be-all is akin to reading tea leaves and bogus, IMHO--it is a tool, and a, hmmm....marginally useful one versus looking at values, flows, futures/forecasts/information theory approaches. Again, IMHO.

owner of a smaller portfolio wrote:

I said 5 years until a complete turnaround and back to 11,000.

Gonna take longer; possibly double your time frame given the Obama factor.

Remember; he's the new FDR with The New Raw Deal:

This is actually a pretty good prediction. I could see it happening just about like that. The ONLY thing I would change is that I don't think it will take 5 years. I think 4 max and more likely 3 -- to get back to a DOW of 11,000. Either way though, 3, 4, 5 years for the DOW to slowly climb back to 11,000 -- that will be SWEET!

Economists are starting to agree that there will be a "solid recovery" in 2010 -

If a solid recovery (however that is defined) really happens in 2010, then it won't take 5 years for the DOW to get back to 11,000.

It is getting excruciatingly close for people (who are out of the market) to really consider getting in. While I'm not for timing a market, if you've been wanting to get in but were unsure about when, you'd better act soon. 2010 will be here before you know it. The long-term gains are going to be unbelievable.

What matters is the subject of the thread. That is the advertisemnet.

The key word is "didn't"

If the thread said - 'Ritz will win gold' - you can explain all you want how he may or may not win gold in the post but putting the word "will" in the subject is what you would be judged on ... brother.

Flagpole, if you couldn't get the last 3 years right, what makes you think you'll get the next 3 right...

oh yeah a broken clock is right twice a day?

Dow 6000 here we come.

I love peeps wrote:

Flagpole, if you couldn't get the last 3 years right, what makes you think you'll get the next 3 right...

oh yeah a broken clock is right twice a day?

Dow 6000 here we come.

Peeps,

I never predicted what the last three years would be like. I've just said I'm in this for the long haul and don't really care (especially the last three years) what the market has been doing. Never have I said that the market would just go up up up.

I did predict though that it would go up and down (yes, I realize that isn't going out on a limb, but I've never pretended to go out on a limb).

DOW 6,000 here we come...ok, GREAT! I hope it stays there for a while too. In fact, unfortunately for me it probably won't stay there long enough to really make me happy. More and more economists are predicting a "solid" recovery in 2010. That's going to put the kibosh on my acquiring potential. Those of you who haven't been investing very long are likely discouraged by what you see. I'm not. Even though I've lost more than you (because I had more to lose). I know it will come back up.

Besides Peeps, look at what comment of mine that you were responding to -- I told another poster that I though HIS prediction sounded pretty good to me and that prediction mentioned the DOW getting back to 11,000 in 5 years. I added that probably it would be 3-4 years instead of 5. So, talk to me in 3-4 years and we'll see where the DOW is. And, even if the DOW isn't back up to 11,000 by then, then really, so what as far as I'm concerned. In 4 years I'll still have 13 left before retirement.

what land are you from flagpole?

More and MORE economists everyday are saying this is going to be longer and more protracted. They just released something that said 9% unemployment before the year is out. Did you miss that? Are you blind?

FAT PIG wrote:

what land are you from flagpole?

More and MORE economists everyday are saying this is going to be longer and more protracted. They just released something that said 9% unemployment before the year is out. Did you miss that? Are you blind?

WRONG!

In addition to that link I posted above, more and more on the evening financial shows are targeting 2010 as a big recovery year. Jeremy Grantham says the next 5-7 years will return bigger than the average market returns.