DIII Outdoor Predictions Thread

Early Predictions

800- J.O.B- could run 1:46 by June...

1500- Kosgei- i hope more guys emerge to run under 3:50. Then maybe i could see a challenge. Too much speed though from kosgei and we know how the sit and kick 1500m show goes

steeple- Kosgei- same track- same race- different year

5k- Sigl- shown good speed so far this outdoor. 3:53 on a cool, windy day, not bad. Kaul will be up there, Harvey should run this race-lotta wheels, who knows. Balster,Abdallah,North. a bunch of guys will run 14:30-35 by middle May. We will wait on this one...

10k- Kaul. Seagull will be there again obviously barring an injury- which doesn't happen to Sigl... ever. Fast last 2k-faster last lap. Everyone else fight for third-eighth. good race for sure.

1:46?? probably not, but i would not be surprised to see a 1:48.

as for the kramer prediction in the 800: he ain't gonna do shit in outdoor.

I think butzler will be ready to roll in the 1500 outdoors. Should be a good race between him and kosgei and J.O.B. If he runs it...

butzz wrote:

I think butzler will be ready to roll in the 1500 outdoors. Should be a good race between him and kosgei and J.O.B. If he runs it...

Butzler just ran a 4:07-1500m. He seems unmotivated and exhausted. I don't think he will qualify this year.

hummmm wrote:

Butzler just ran a 4:07-1500m. He seems unmotivated and exhausted. I don't think he will qualify this year.

don't just make assumptions about things you have no clue about

hummmm wrote:

butzz wrote:

I think butzler will be ready to roll in the 1500 outdoors. Should be a good race between him and kosgei and J.O.B. If he runs it...

Butzler just ran a 4:07-1500m. He seems unmotivated and exhausted. I don't think he will qualify this year.

You guys can't discount Butzler's foot speed. That guy has some wheels. Trust me, if Sigl and Butzler were to race at any distance under 10k, Butzler's leg speed would win out. Butzler has more speed than anyone in DIII...mark it down.

but if he ain't fit, as shown by his 1500, foot speed won't make a difference. and i doubt he could pull off a 47.xx in the 4x4.

Really? More foot speed than anyone in DIII?! So if he were to challenge anyone in 800m on down, he'd win, right? BS.

I heard most of the Whitewater team had herpes. Is that true?

Oh yeah, Butzler has magical foot speed.

agreed, never doubt Butzler's magical foot speed, it will do wonders just you wait

no one doubts butzlers solid leg speed. judging from his indoor season and his lack of progress thus far outdoors however, it is tough to see him competing with the likes of kosgei,o'brien,sigl, and other guys on the middle distance list come May...

I hope he does though.

Run5484 wrote:

Do you think that Kaul and Sigl are incapable of running 14:10 5k's? I feel like Leer could have broken, or come very close to breaking 14:00 in the 5k last year.

No, but they haven't so far. Abdallah can run by himself well, and I'm just saying he has a decent chance of running away from the field. He seems to believe he can win, which counts for something.

I think Leer was physically capable of breaking 14:00, but not mentally. He sounded really doubtful when he said his coach thought the 5000 would be his best race. He was more mentally invested in the 1500, and he seems to perform best when running with the pack. Look at the slow time in last year's 1500 finals. If no one else was going to get close to 14:00, no way he would.

Leer did pretty well at the U.S. Championships last year in the 1500. I'd like to see him move up in the 5000, but it may never happen. Some runners' preferences may hold back their potential in different distances.

Pardon the digression, but I thought about how the mile was the premier event back in Pre's day, and so much time was spent weaning him off the mile, he ran the 5000 in the Olympics when he should have run the 10k. It seems he would have had a better chance of a medal in that race.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

Run5484 wrote:

Do you think that Kaul and Sigl are incapable of running 14:10 5k's? I feel like Leer could have broken, or come very close to breaking 14:00 in the 5k last year.

No, but they haven't so far. Abdallah can run by himself well, and I'm just saying he has a decent chance of running away from the field. He seems to believe he can win, which counts for something.

You do realize that Hany has run right around 14:10 in the last two indoor seasons and never came close to winning come nationals, right? Hany gets in fast races and gets dragged along to fast times, he doesn't do them by himself. If Kaul and Sigl and Kosgei were in those races, I have no doubt that they would be able to run just as fast. Hany is a good time-trialist, but there are other folks who are much better racers and are just as fast. In those circumstances, the better racer always wins.

butzler is like 30 now isn't he? i mean he went to school, then played firefighter or something and then came back to run at UWW. The foot speed cannot save you if you aren't in shape or a couple years from being 30

He's 25 not quite 30. The kid took like three years completely off to join the army and get his firefighter training. If you ask me to come back from that type of a break to do what he has done is pretty damn amazing. I don't think he has to prove anything to anyone but himself at this point. Maybe his body is a little tired right now but he still holds a promising future. I don't beleive he should give up on the season but if he chooses to rest hell he still has both track seasons left for next year.

I would guess that we won't see Leer move up to the 5k until next year. Since it is an Olympic year he will probably focus on his primary event, which at this point is the 1,500m. Comfort with an event, as we all know, plays a big part in being able to race it well.

Yes, Leer should have run sub-14:00 last year, but he didn't. Instead he ran 3:40.06, the second fastest time ever in D-III. Not too shabby. It would be awesome to see him run 3:36 this year and then come back next year and start ripping 5k's.

All hypotheticals, but just what I would like to see. How cool would it be to have two recent D-III guys on the Olympic Team? Ice cold, that's how cool.

Was anyone hurt at Whitewater--I heard the whole power plant blew up there.