Can Tegenkamp move up to the 10k though? I know the 5k is his best event but I haven't seen a solid 10K from him I don't think. And with Ritz only four seconds back over 2 miles I would think it would be really close over 10k.
Hall on the other hand is a completely different story. Who knows what he will throw down.
from the horses mouth. not much speed work. expects to be able to kick off that pace with the work. as the race gets longer there is more than can go wrong. feel like in the best 10000 shape of his life but have felt that way before.
I've always said that if he stays reasonably healthy, then the 10K record is his. I still think that, more than Teg or Webb, he can place extremely high at the WC's. With Hall at the marathon though, that's a different competition that's hard to compare evenly. Meb has a marathon silver & Brian Sell finished 9th a couple years ago. Meanwhile Webb & his 3:48 PR has often been said to not be medal material, while no U.S. miler has finished higher than 9th in about 20 years.
BTW, if you think I'm jumping on the Ritz bandwagon...
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=1735572&thread=1734058
"I think Ritz is due for a huge year. Extended strength training to go with his 5K track PR. I've always thought that, more than Webb or Hall, Ritz had "it". Now he's got some real, non-injured training to go with it."
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=1876464&thread=1874651
"Ritz is the complete package for a great marathoner or even 10K'er. But no one runs great with consistent injuries. If not for them, I really think Ritz would have our 10K A.R. and a top 8 finish in a WC and/or Olympic 10K by now, with better things in the future. The kid's special, mentally, physically and a born competitor/runner... except for the injuries. Too bad."
malmo wrote:
Ritzenhein's 2 mile is by far his best effort yet. The IAAF tables are right on the mark.
Maybe track/time wise. But I think his 24th place on the IAAF XC long course as a collegiate freshman, is his best race ever. Todd Williams & BK used to state how hard that race was/is.
As far as Mebs record being respected, I wouldnt respect it too much. 27:13 is weak when the WR is 26:17. I know 27:13 is hard, but thats nothing on the world scene. Id like to see Ritz or Fam or anyone run sub 27:10 this year. btw, where was Fam today?
LAT wrote:
Although Ryan Hall and Matt Tegenkamp will probably break it first.
Neither one has demonstrated at this point that they are as good as Ritz in the 10000....but all three have yet to run their best times in the distance. I don't care which one breaks it, I root for all of them.
"best shape of his life" - where have we heard that before? he's said that several times before, and the same goes for "I'm going to Worlds"
You're so gay. Hopefully you get your @ss kicked tomorrow for being such a douche.
So despite McMillan being accurate within 20 miles of racing - all in line EXACTLY with his PRs, 2M, 5K, 10K, 1/2 marathon you insist that McMillan is somehow flawed, yet the IAAF tables have predicted nothing, nada, zero.
Malmo, even you ... if you had a stock picker that was this accurate, you might make some money in the stock market.
Heard that b4 wrote:
"best shape of his life" - where have we heard that before? he's said that several times before, and the same goes for "I'm going to Worlds"
Selective listening much?
"The ten? God, I don't know. I mean, you know, the longer the race goes, the more that can go wrong, so I don't ever like to make predictions. I definitely feel like I'm in the best shape I've been for a 10, but, I've felt like that before, and things didn't quite go as well as I thought. So I'm just going to use this as an indicator that I'm in shape..."
He sounded wary but enthused about his 10k potential.
0-man wrote:
So despite McMillan being accurate within 20 miles of racing - all in line EXACTLY with his PRs, 2M, 5K, 10K, 1/2 marathon you insist that McMillan is somehow flawed, yet the IAAF tables have predicted nothing, nada, zero.
Malmo, even you ... if you had a stock picker that was this accurate, you might make some money in the stock market.
So what does McMillen "predict" about Webb, Teg, Meb, Hall, KK, Lagat, Goucher, Fam, Abdi, and Lincoln? Back on the short bus, you're late for school...
"McMillen" and your reference to the short bus, ahh the irony here.
Blind man and a dartboard wrote:
0-man wrote:So despite McMillan being accurate within 20 miles of racing - all in line EXACTLY with his PRs, 2M, 5K, 10K, 1/2 marathon you insist that McMillan is somehow flawed, yet the IAAF tables have predicted nothing, nada, zero.
Malmo, even you ... if you had a stock picker that was this accurate, you might make some money in the stock market.
So what does McMillen "predict" about Webb, Teg, Meb, Hall, KK, Lagat, Goucher, Fam, Abdi, and Lincoln? Back on the short bus, you're late for school...
Joe Friday ... wrote:
McMillan Calculator:
2M 8:11.0
5K 13:17
10K 27:36
1/2 1:01:25
... all dead in line with his PRs. Move along, no story here.
0-man wrote:
So despite McMillan being accurate within 20 miles of racing - all in line EXACTLY with his PRs, 2M, 5K, 10K, 1/2 marathon you insist that McMillan is somehow flawed, yet the IAAF tables have predicted nothing, nada, zero.
OK. Lets plug in everyone’s 2 mile PRs and see what McMillen comes up with. This should be good.
Hall
PR= 3:42.7, 8:26.6, 13:16, 28:08, 59:43, 2:08:24
M= 3:40.2, 8:26.6, 13:41, 28:26, 1:03:17, 2:13:28
Webb
PR= 3:32.52, 8:11.4, 13:10, 27:34
M= 3:33.7, 8:11.4, 13:17, 27:36
Teg
PR= 3:35.9, 8:07.0, 13:05, 29:59
M= 3:31.9, 8:07.0, 13:11, 27:22
Lincoln
PR= 3:37.5, 8:13.7, 13:32, 28:20
M= 3:34.5, 8:13.7, 13:20, 27:43
Fam
PR= 3:35.8, 7:41.2, 13:12, 27:37
M= 3:35.5, 7:41.2, 13:24, 27:50
Meb
PR= 3:42.2, 7:48.8, 13:11, 27:14, 1:01:28, 2:09:53
M= 3:38.8, 7:48.8, 13:36, 28:15, 1:02:52, 2:12:36
Abdi
PR=3:49.4, 7:47.7, 13:13, 27:22, 1:01:07, 2:08:56
M= 3:38.3, 7:47.7, 13:34, 28:12, 1:02:44, 2:12:19
Goucher
PR= 3:36.6, 7:34.9, 13:10, 27:59
M= 3:32.7, 7:34.9, 13:13, 27:28
Lagat
PR= 3:26.3, 7:33.5, 12:59
M= 3:31.7, 7:33.5, 13:10
Yeppers, Ritz's PR's are dead in line, but not one of the other's PRs fit the line. It looks like McMillen's table don't actually predict anything doesn't it......
Blind man and a dartboard wrote:
Yeppers, Ritz's PR's are dead in line, but not one of the other's PRs fit the line. It looks like McMillen's table don't actually predict anything doesn't it......
They don't. You're right.
These tables are good for retrospective comparison, but nothing else really. They don't "predict" anything. Too many variables involved to do that the least bit reliably.
wow I am not going to rely on McMillian. He don't know sht