Renato Canova, Jason in, Wejo, Malmo etc...input on Ryan Hall's 2007 10000m/marathoning potential?

My belief is that Ryan Hall is training to be a sub 13:00 5 k runner. Imagine if both Teg and Hall break 13 within the next few years. Hall probably could run

a 13:10 now with out much trouble.

He will probably also take care of his comparably sluggish 1500 times.

It is going to be fun watching Teg, Webb, Lagat, Hall, and Robison run this year. US distance running is starting to look like it did back in 1982.

Things are definitely improving and should start a renaissance in the sport.

Awesomee Post wrote:

"Physical Profile" Yeah right. It must be the same thing with nearly every other american that has run that has run sub 1:02 for the HM. Very few of them have hit their marathon equivelancy either. I believe only 3 of the top 15 all time americans in the HM have equaled that performance in the marathon. That means that 80% have not. Why do you think that is, George? Probably "physical profile" for 80% of the american's.

101:43 = 2:09:59

Yes, that's true. Physical profile, and opportunity. For me that 1:01:43 almost didn't happen. I wasn't entered in the race until the week of. The day before a thick gray blanket of heat and humidity choked the entire East coast. I specifically remember taking a jog on the course when I arrived in town, and I couldn't breathe at all. Felt very weak. At about 10pm that night a front moved into town, with thunderstorms and rain, and almost immediately you could feel the humidity lifting. I remember my breathing returned to normal and had a restful night of sleep. The next morning, when I woke up to cool, clear air of a high pressure system, and I knew this would be the day. What a difference a day makes.

The individual profiles of all of the top Americans (Abdi, Fam, Goucher, Hall, KK, Lincoln, Lagat, Meb, Ritz, Teg and Webb.

malmo wrote:Physical profile, and opportunity.

Cool chart, although it's a little hard to read. Upgrade to Office 2007 - the default charts look good, way better than the fugly things you get from Excel 2003 out of the box.

malmo, physical profile and opportunity are obviously important, but training/preparation is also. Not everyone in that chart trains the same way (i.e gearing toward the same distances) so it's not possible to compare those guys and say the differences are solely due to physical profile, IMHO.

malmo wrote:

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

What "pimple headed kids" are you talking about? Malmo and Flagpole Willy? Because they were looking for a 2:08:xx from Ritz at NYC (with Malmo saying "if the weather is right"). Does Malmo have an acne problem?

Oh, I, by the way, said Ritz would run 2:14.

Grow up kid. I said that Ritzenhein had a reasonable expectation to run sub 2:09:00. I haven't seen anything from him to change my mind.

Right on brother! It was VERY clear that you weren't guaranteeing any time for Ritz. Apparently Sir Lance doesn't know how to read.

Pretty much you can never win on this message board, so I learned a long time ago not to even try (and I know you hold the same thought). If you state what someone CAN run but won't throw out a solid prediction, you're labeled a pussy. If you get one wrong, you're a dumbass. If you get one right you're lucky, or it's the only time you've ever been right (see earlier slam of Sir Lance in this thread).

So, people should just throw out predictions if they think they've got one.

I agree with you malmo that Ritz is capable of sub 2:09 on that NYC course and even faster at a faster race. Time will tell.

Pete wrote:

malmo, physical profile and opportunity are obviously important, but training/preparation is also. Not everyone in that chart trains the same way (i.e gearing toward the same distances) so it's not possible to compare those guys and say the differences are solely due to physical profile, IMHO.

In an absolute sense you are correct. In a practical sense you are not. The thing about running is that everyone starts off running the same events and eventually drift into those events in which they are most suited for. For instance, no matter what you do with Khannouchi, Keflezighi or Abdirahman you are not going to make 1500 runners out of them.

While I've read all sorts of cool things about Vista and Office 2007, I'm not so sure I want to give Gates & Co. any more of my money.

malmo wrote:

The individual profiles of all of the top Americans (Abdi, Fam, Goucher, Hall, KK, Lincoln, Lagat, Meb, Ritz, Teg and Webb.

George very nice job. The chart demonstrates that Khalid is the only american to have run the marathon as his best distance. Even Meb and Frank Shorter (27:45) have run faster for other distances than the marathon. Why do you feel that is the case? Is every top american 10k-HM physical profile such that they can't carry it to the marathon? Based on this knowledge why would one expect success from Ryan Hall in the marathon?

Very cool data there Malmo; point taken, it will be rare for anyone to produce a linear profile.

I'm very curious .... how are you involved in running currently. Are you still training? Do you run for fitness? Do you coach .... or are you just a fan?

Some Coach wrote:

Very cool data there Malmo; point taken, it will be rare for anyone to produce a linear profile.

I'm very curious .... how are you involved in running currently. Are you still training? Do you run for fitness? Do you coach .... or are you just a fan?

Above each of those lines you could draw an imaginary dotted line which would represent the individual's ultimate ability across the board. Obviously it would be highly subjective, but everyone has an idea where there strengths are. Go to the IAAF scoring tables and plot your own profile.

Could you imagine if during Ryan's Hall's senior year of college was like the previous three years? What if doors didn't open up for him like they did, and he just got on with his life like most college athletes do? What if someone said his ultimate potential in the half marathon was 59:30, could you imagine the snickers coming from the peanut gallery?

I'm just a fan ... an uberfan if you will.

malmo wrote:

I'm just a fan ... an uberfan if you will.

And a former athlete who was fortunate enough to have trained (at one time or another) with athletes having the following PRs: 2:08:52, 2:09:00, 2:09:28, 2:09:32, 2:09:32, 2:09:38, 2:10:16, 2:10:27, 2:10:54, 2:10:59, 2:11:09, 2:11:13, 2:11:15, 2:11:26, 2:11:34, 2:11:41, 2:11:42, 2:11:43, 2:12:03, 2:12:55, 2:13:02, 2:13:16, 2:13:24, 2:14:22, 2:14:25, 2:14:44 (I'll bet I missed a few).

I have great respect for your past ... no need to back up your qualifications. We don't agree on all points, but the discussions are what makes this site fun.

So are you telling me you don't run at all anymore? That would amaze me .....

And you should coach; there's a lot of knowledge going to waste.

Malmo:

Were you with GBTC group? Did coach Squires coach you? Or were you pretty much on your own and trained with them once in a while?

Are you coming to Boston this year? Or is NY pretty much the only one you go...

Nobby, I was not with GBTC. Trained with the group on occasion. Listened intently to any advice Squires would offer. Boston this year - a possibility.

Some coach, I didn't say I didn't run. I go three, sometimes four days a week, for 45-50 minutes at 'grandy pace'. When I get really ambitious I do doubles on the weekends. I like to feel the wind in my face.

cool graphics, malmo. any chance you could plug Bill Rodgers and maybe Frank Shorter into that schema... also what about Joan Benoit?

Ryan Hall picks London Marathon for his debut. In my opinion that is his best choice:

London with its flat course is less likely to beat up his legs

It will allow for a super fast time which will gain the respect of other athletes (Africans), all athletes respect fast times it may not instill fear but it will get respect

A super fast time will also give Ryan alot for confidence (finishing London in 2:07/2:08 for 4th or 5th over 2:09/2:10 for 3rd or 4th at Boston).

http://www.iaaf.org/news/Kind=2/newsId=37346.html

Great field but I'm wondering who will be first American? Khalid, Meb, or Ryan?

khalid

Awesomee Post wrote:

malmo wrote:

The individual profiles of all of the top Americans (Abdi, Fam, Goucher, Hall, KK, Lincoln, Lagat, Meb, Ritz, Teg and Webb.

George very nice job. The chart demonstrates that Khalid is the only american to have run the marathon as his best distance. Even Meb and Frank Shorter (27:45) have run faster for other distances than the marathon. Why do you feel that is the case? Is every top american 10k-HM physical profile such that they can't carry it to the marathon? Based on this knowledge why would one expect success from Ryan Hall in the marathon?

or it just suggests he is the only american to really focus on the marathon. keep in mind his track forays have been limited and he rarely races these days save for marathons or halfs - which for him are 60% of the time not fast relative to his marathon time b/c he trains through them pretty seriously. he is a big peaker.

monday morning coach wrote:

Remember, Hall ran 3:42 6 years ago when he was just 18 years old. People are saying he lacks speed, but that PR is old and when he was just a junior. I bet now at age 24 at a period when his training is focused towards the 5k, he could run several seconds faster. If he were to focus on the 1500 (which he should not, but let's say so hypothetically), I bet he could go 3:37 or faster. Still, this is not comparable to the likes of Bekele, but to say he only has 3:42 1500 speed is inaccurate.

I think it's very accurate. Hall stated himself that last year he started running more mile type workouts and wanted to get that PR down. He couldn't do it though. He also wasn't able to do it the summer of his 13:16. The only way he'll beat his 3:42 is to actually get better at that distance.

I'm not Malmo but, in regards to Frank Shorter, I have my theory as someone who actually watched 4 of his marathon races run on TV in Japan (plus Montreal Olympics).

I think his best marathons, besides Munich Olympics, were Fukuoka 1972 and 1976 Olympic Trial in Oregon. For the former, he was easily sub-2:10 pace and, after securing the win, slowed down quite a bit, with strong head wind as well, and ran "easily" 2:10:30. At the trial, he and Rodgers, figuring they secured the spot, "jogged" the last 6 miles together and finished something like 2:11:40. Had he had a several pace makers like we do in todays marathons or tighter competition or thousands of dollars for the course and world record as a bonus, Shorter could have easily run much faster--perhaps then world best of 2:08:34. But we would never find that out, would we?

Dynamics of distance running, including marathons, has changed so much in the last 20 years that it is absolutely impossible to compare times. I would still consider Shorter as the best marathon runner ever from the US simply because of the way he ran against the bests in the world and beat them in so many occasions.

I have NO doubt, had the race conducted the way it is today, he would have gone around 2:08 on December 3rd, 1972 at Fukuoka.