MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

Wow, Sean Fries closed the gap on his brother. Great depth 1-7. 4 of those guys will still be around in 2 years. Seems like they are building a team that could win state in 2024.

Looks like Worthington found a 5th. Definitely has to be in the conversation of teams to win state in AA.

Birnbaum is back! His team found 5 guys too after losing most of his teammates to graduation.

Luther All-American this morning - appears to have been pouring and extremely muddy especially for varsity girls (2nd to last) and varsity boys (last race). Regardless Aiden Jones (4th in coaches poll) beating his Olaf time by 7s, Adam Lueth (8th in coaches poll) was a bit behind Olaf but still bested Hootie Hage (7th in coaches poll).

Team-wise Washburn looked fantastic and easily smoked the meet. Bloomington Jefferson had a solid showing given conditions - I think they have a chance to make a run at top 10 by end of the season.

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Yes strong - but worth pointing out great conditions and Heartland course is flatter than a pancake. Still good but doubt they hit those times again for a couple meets at least.

Top 10 will be very hard to crack for Jefferson.
I think the candidates for top 10 are (not in this order necessarily) -
Lakeville North, Wayzata, Rosemount, Tonka, Southwest, Washburn, Mounds View, Eden Prairie, Armstrong, Edina (now that Defor is back) and maybe Stillwater if their 1-5 are on.
But getting top 10 at the state meet (where top 10 teams that fail to qualify from difficult sections don’t race) doesn’t seem very out of reach. They just need a solid 2-5 behind Lueth.

We also still need to see what Roseville can do at full strength. They got top 10 last year and didn’t graduate much.
Next year Jefferson should be top 10 for sure since they bring 6 guys back.
The battle for the state meet between Wayzata, Southwest and Washburn will be very, very tight in 6AAA.
Seems like Washburn is making progress on closing the 4-5 gap and Southwest found 6 studs.
Any of these 3 teams could win the section.
It’s not even a given that Wayzata will qualify for state this year. Those 2 Minneapolis teams are gonna show Wayzata that they can’t show up on the course and expect to qualify for state with ease.

Armstrong could have been in the mix of teams to make state this year if their 4th and 5th guys were close to their 3rd. Such a shame they couldn’t get a 4th and 5th close to their 3rd because their #3 wasn’t on varsity last year but their 4-7 guys were.
Would be cool to see that happen now that this team is full of seniors including Breker and Omodt. Those guys lead this team to a section championship 2 years ago.

Wayzata Saturday night lights:
HS
http://www.wayzata-xc.com/2022%20XC/09_10%20-%20SNL%20HS%20Results.pdf
Mohamed is #1 again. McCollor is back. No Salatino.

MS
http://www.wayzata-xc.com/2022%20XC/SATURDAY%20NIGHT%20LIGHTS%20MS%202022.pdf
4 middle schoolers under 5:16
HS times were the fastest since 2018.

History:
http://www.wayzata-xc.com/snlhistory.html

My boys aaa Rankings after this week:
1. Wayzata
2. Minnetonka
3. Lakeville North
4. Rosemount
5. Minneapolis Washburn
6. Minneapolis Southwest
7. Mounds View
8. Eden Prairie
9. Robbinsdale Armstrong
10. Edina
Mohamed is back to being Wayzata’s #1 at the Saturday Night Lights.
SNL times were better than last year’s (the year they won the state title and NXR). Also, last meet Weber was leading the team, but this time the rest of the pack caught up to him.
For these reasons I’m putting them at #1. They sure won’t be a lock to win state (hardly anyone ever is), but they will definitely be in contention.
I put Minnetonka in front of Lakeville North not only because of their slightly better speed ratings, but they also have a better low stick, and better depth outside of their top 5.

Edina’s Defor who was leading the team sometimes is back so I’m putting them at #10. It’s also clear that they found a 3-4-5 although none of them were varsity last year.

Individuals:
1. Noah Breker
2. Sam Scott
3. Nick Gilles
4. Aidan Jones
5. Elliott McArthur
6. Nolan Sutter
7. Andrew Casey
8. Adam Lueth
9. Hootie Hage
10. Alex Omodt
#10 spot seems to be up for grabs but I put Omodt here because of his solid race at Bauman Rovn and he did in fact get 10th at state last year.
Sutter ran a 180 speed rating so he deserves to move up in the rankings.

Best 2 boys teams from each AAA section so far - not much difference from last time.
1- Lakeville North / South
2- Minnetonka / Eden Prairie
3- Rosemount / Bloomington Jefferson
4- Stillwater / Woodbury
5- Mounds View / Roseville
6- Wayzata / Minneapolis Washburn. Southwest seems to be getting there. Could maybe be second but it’s kind of hard to tell which one is better since they haven’t raced each other this week. But Southwest seems to be putting things together. Washburn’s 4-5 gap is closing too though.
7- Blaine / Duluth East. Blaine looks very solid but second spot can go to anyone, really. Other candidates for this spot include Centennial and Andover.
8- Buffalo / Bemidji

https://cdn1.sportngin.com/attachments/document/30be-2520151/Boys_AAA_sep_12.pdf#_ga=2.69898192.138100006.1663006689-630284621.1662518012
Here are the AAA Polls.
Some questionable calls on this.
Teams:
I think Minnetonka is much more improved than ever before. They don’t just have a solid #1 but their 4/5 guys closed the gap on their #3. The freshman in this group caught up to his older brother and is now the #1 freshman in the state at this point. They also have nice depth behind their top 5.
I think Tonka is top 3.
I think Southwest’s 4/5/6 are much more improved from the last meet. And they have a guy who could challenge for an NXN spot. They are much closer to Washburn than the polls say. Southwest is not much worse than they were last year actually. One thing that they have this year that they didn’t have last year is a #6. They couldn’t even find a 5th until sections last year. They did lose 3 seniors but the underclassmen stepped up to fill in the void just fine.
I think Stillwater is ranked a little too high here. They almost lost to an AA team that might not make the podium. I would say they are 11th.
Lueth beat Hage but is ranked below him? I don’t get this.
Sutter should be ranked much higher. He ran a 15:30. He beat everyone but Breker and Scott in a big race.
Omodt should be top 10 I think. That’s where he actually finished at state last year and he did better than last year at Bauman Rovn. Maybe he’s not on there because he only beat Hering and Starfield by only 9 seconds?
I think he’s progressing just like Breker and should do much better at state than now.
Armstrong should be top 10 because 2 of their guys are in top 12 (and one of them top 1).

They did lose McCleary but everyone else is back and stepped up. This year they have 2 guys in the top 10 for class A, whereas last year there was only 1.

And maybe I’m wrong but nobody said Devon Allen. Perhaps because he isn’t on a roster.

bottom line is in the absence of the NFL no current field event WR would be the same and no current track WR would be the same from 800 down. It would be Americans from the top down all across.

Becker beats monticello still behind them

Big Lake hasn't lost a meet in over a year not sure why they drop so far.

Polls losing credibility

Did Sal Wirth lose a meet too? What's up with the kid from Breck that won state last year, injured?

Becker had 2 juniors go to state last year. And they lost no one from varsity. Hopefully their team can go this year.
But it won’t be easy. They need a #5. Monticello had a guy run JV and if he ran varsity he would have scored fewer points than their #5 guy on varsity did. And the race between the 2 teams was close.

I too was wondering what happened from Keller from Breck. Dyestat even had him and Hage in the top 100.

I don’t think Sal Wirth lost a meet. But I like that Cameron Stocke is in front of him in these polls. Stocke ran a 15:47 and Wirth ran a 15:58. Gerres ran a 15:36.
Gerres also faced some top guys from AAA and did really well against them.
Stocke was the 2nd fastest 8th grader in the state in 2019 (behind McArthur).

Bloomington Jefferson has a really good freshman trio though.
3 freshmen between 18:02 and 18:09.
This team will be solid for the next few years.
Rosemount has a really good freshman class considering they perfect scored in the freshman race at the Irish invite.