I know McConnell has been voting in support of U.S. involvement, Conflict in Ukraine. If U.S. Senate and U.S. House both change political parties, it is an implied mandate to cut Ukraine off. Europe and Asia need to govern themselves sans U.S. involvement.
You just invented an "implied mandate". Given that support of Ukraine is not on any ballot and polls show that a majority of Americans support giving Ukraine aid, what is the basis for you assumption? And no, just a change of congressional majorities isn't sufficient evidence.
I know McConnell has been voting in support of U.S. involvement, Conflict in Ukraine. If U.S. Senate and U.S. House both change political parties, it is an implied mandate to cut Ukraine off. Europe and Asia need to govern themselves sans U.S. involvement.
This will never happen. The hard core M#GA Republicans who are willing to piss off the defense industry do not have the numbers in Congress to make this happen. There are enough non-M#GA Republicans to join with centrist Dems to get funding done. It will be like the infrastructure bill and the microchip bill. M#GA Republicans will put on a show for OAN and FoxNews and then brag about getting defense contract dollars for the Lockheed Martin plant in their district. And I think behind closed doors, Trump will tell Republicans to keep funding Ukraine because if they cut off Ukraine and that turns the tide of the war, Trump will have to spend all of 2024 explaining why his acolytes threw the war to the Russians and how he is not Putin's puppet.
If you want to look at a more interesting dynamic in the Ukraine war, some conservatives in the Iranian government are very vocally objecting to selling weapons to Russia. Iran's leadership did not disclose the weapons sales in advance of the war. The conservative leaders feel that Russia was the aggressor and should not be supported. The Russian/Iranian relationship is complicated. Iran is a predominantly Shia Muslim country. In Chechnya, Kadyrov and his government banned Shiism and declared Sunni Muslims to be the only sect allowed in Chechnya. Russia has also gotten much closer to the Saudis since the war started and got OPEC to make steep productions cuts in order to swing the US election back to M#GA Republicans. Iranians hate Trump for ditching the peace deal and assassinating General Soleimani. Also, Iran needs grain from Ukraine and could face a full blown revolution if Russia blocks grain shipments again.
Russia is currently seeking to buy missiles from Iran as it has wasted hundreds of missiles attacking Ukrainian infrastructure instead of supporting its attempts to win back lost territory in the east. With more air defense systems pouring into Ukraine, RU needs a lot more missiles in order to be able to keep up its campaign against Ukraine infrastructure. If Iran is not willing to sell, RU may run to low on missiles and will have to give up the campaign, which will allow Ukraine the opportunity to rebuild and restore power and water infrastructure this winter.
Ukraine polling data on Territorial concessions to end war.
Poll is of persons currently in Ukrainian controlled territorial, so consider the perspective, but interest in territorial concessions for peace is very low.
Ukraine polling data on Territorial concessions to end war.
Poll is of persons currently in Ukrainian controlled territorial, so consider the perspective, but interest in territorial concessions for peace is very low.
Ukraine polling data on Territorial concessions to end war.
Poll is of persons currently in Ukrainian controlled territorial, so consider the perspective, but interest in territorial concessions for peace is very low.
I think Russia will win this war only because the West will grow tired and afraid of losing the gas (Europe especially). Ukraine is winning tactical engagements but Russia has resources and can play the long game.
I think Russia will win this war only because the West will grow tired and afraid of losing the gas (Europe especially). Ukraine is winning tactical engagements but Russia has resources and can play the long game.
To clarify, I want UKR to win and support President Biden's and NATO's efforts on this.
M.I.C. did not start u.s. involvement in Ukraine. U.S. involvement in Ukraine was and is for U.S. special interest group or groups. M.I.C. didn't back Biden in a corner. U.S. admirals & generals were not playing war games and forcing Biden's hand. Recall, special interest group or groups were crying & begging for No Fly Zone. Admirals & generals said no. It's likely we could easily place pro-Ukrainian posters on this thread in a small number of special interest groups. You are stating what you want to happen and pretending you are stating a fact. If you think about it, you must be wrong. U.S. involvement will certainly end some day.
I think Russia will win this war only because the West will grow tired and afraid of losing the gas (Europe especially). Ukraine is winning tactical engagements but Russia has resources and can play the long game.
Russia's strategy, given the current inability to generate sufficient combat force to push an offensive, clearly seems to be to protract the war and to fracture western support to Ukraine.
"Winning" however is a matter of degree. Western interest will likely decline as they feel economic hardship and they may push for territorial concessions, but it's hard to see them allowing complete capitulation. Also, Russia is incurring significant economic hardship. The Russian elite won't tolerate that forever and may push Putin aside for someone more interested in a compromise resolution.
I think Russia will win this war only because the West will grow tired and afraid of losing the gas (Europe especially). Ukraine is winning tactical engagements but Russia has resources and can play the long game.
To clarify, I want UKR to win and support President Biden's and NATO's efforts on this.
I don't see how going back to Russian gas is politically feasible for any European democracy. This would be like sending your kids back to a daycare that had already kidnapped them once.
I think Russia will win this war only because the West will grow tired and afraid of losing the gas (Europe especially). Ukraine is winning tactical engagements but Russia has resources and can play the long game.
Russia's strategy, given the current inability to generate sufficient combat force to push an offensive, clearly seems to be to protract the war and to fracture western support to Ukraine.
"Winning" however is a matter of degree. Western interest will likely decline as they feel economic hardship and they may push for territorial concessions, but it's hard to see them allowing complete capitulation. Also, Russia is incurring significant economic hardship. The Russian elite won't tolerate that forever and may push Putin aside for someone more interested in a compromise resolution.
Fair enough.
Russian population is weak and can't revolt against Putin's security forces. Hopefully they too are sent to fight the Ukrainians but it is not likely.
I read the Russian treasury is still strong due to $ from oil and gas, even if their economy s bad right now.
Russia is pulling out of Kherson on the north bank of the Dnipro river. This is a huge loss for RU. Kherson was supposed to be RU's staging ground for taking Odessa and cutting off UA's access to the Black Sea and eventually building a corridor through to Transnistria, with Moldova being another domino to fall to Russia. Now, Russia is vulnerable to having its eastern front cut off entirely from Crimea if UA can cross the Dnipro and push RU forces back into Crimea.
It is no coincidence that the order to pull out of Kherson came after Republicans failed to gain control of congress in what RU was hoping would be a red wave that would cut off support for Ukraine.
Russia is pulling out of Kherson on the north bank of the Dnipro river. This is a huge loss for RU. Kherson was supposed to be RU's staging ground for taking Odessa and cutting off UA's access to the Black Sea and eventually building a corridor through to Transnistria, with Moldova being another domino to fall to Russia. Now, Russia is vulnerable to having its eastern front cut off entirely from Crimea if UA can cross the Dnipro and push RU forces back into Crimea.
It is no coincidence that the order to pull out of Kherson came after Republicans failed to gain control of congress in what RU was hoping would be a red wave that would cut off support for Ukraine.
This point actually is solid and makes sense!
I like what you wrote, but hope it's not a trap. But UKR is also smart too and won't fall for stupid crap.
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