MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

Have your rain gear ready. Looks like we’ve been spoiled by nice weather all year. A true Minnesota November day awaits us all.

I’m looking forward to seeing how all the runners can handle the rain.

Any opinions or thoughts on what type of runners (in general) do better in rainy/bad weather? Seems tough to predict exactly how it would apply tomorrow, but does this favor any team/individual?

Also, is there any truth to the idea that senior-heavy teams do better in big meets? Seems like that is generally accepted, but it feels like these types of teams disappoint more than its assumed. Younger teams are more likely to have "breakout" performances while older ones are pretty much who they are. Might apply to Rosemount/North tomorrow...

Thoughts?

Yeah it is hard to say looking at NxRs Breker and Scott did well for the cold weather. And I guess breker had a good run a griak with light rain and the course being wet. But I’d say this a question for MN Reve lol he knows everything

I think anyone that has raced more times in bad condition will handle them better.

As far as senior-heavy teams….

All of them wanna achieve everything they possibly because they know there won’t be a next year for many of them.

But….

Some of them feel too much pressure and might not end up doing well…but some of them do really well because they know how to deal with the pressure.

It also depends on how much experience of racing at the state meet they have, or at least on that course (the St Olaf Showcase is on the same course), but not many scorers at Rosemount, Lakeville North, Wayzata and Minnetonka will be new to the state meet

If you look back at the Hamline Elite Meet in track you might have a good idea of individuals who do well during a rainy meet!

Mounds View ran when it was cold at NXR in 2018 and 2019. They won it those years because they were used to it

Girl’s races predictions:

3A: Abbey Nechanicky the clear favorite. Unless it’s muddy, sub-17 for her fourth consecutive race. (Even if it is muddy, I wouldn’t bet against it.)
2A: Luna Scorzelli by 12 seconds.

1A: Amanda Overgaauw or Jade Rypkema- It’s a toss up as far as I see it. They’re very closely matched right now I think.

Nobody knows for sure what impact rain, a wet course or chilly weather will have on the outcome. It is absurd to assert otherwise.

Girls AAA predictions

1. Wayzata

2. Minnetonka

3. Prior Lake

1. Abbey Nechanicky

2. Sydney Drevlow

3. Marissa Long

my Boys AAA prediction

1. Lakeville north

2. Wayzata

3. Minnetonka

1. Scott

2. Breker

3. Gilles

Just cus breker is hurt and no rosemount cus they Ran fast on a easy course

Girls -

Wayzata, then Tonka, then Mounds View (led by their 8th grader). 1 - Nechanicky; 2 - Hushagen; 3 - Lee.

Boys -

Wayzata, then Tonka, then Rosemount. 1 - Gilles; 2 - Breker; 3 - Mohamed.

Aren’t you a tonka runner? No chance you guys beat Rosemount. They have such a strong top 5 that is even more of an advantage in bigger meets like this. I also extremely doubt that Breker beats Gilles but not Scott. I think it’s an either or Gilles and Scott should be pretty close.

No offense but Tonka at 2 over North and Rosemount especially with Ryan Fries likely not at 100% is crazy.

And having Hamza at 3 is borderline loony. Scott, Casey, Jones all >. Maybe he beats 1 and possibly 2 in a crazy scenario but having him over all 3 is insane.

Realistic Boys AAA Predictions:

Team -

1. Wayzata: With McMillan injured this is a lot tighter than before and honestly could see Rosemount stealing it, but ultimately I think Wayzata’s experience will prevail.

2. Rosemount: should contend for top spot especially with Schultz caught up to the rest of the group. Having the best 5th runner in the state and such a low spread will be very advantageous in a bigger meet like this.

3. Lakeville North: definitely being slept on right now due to a slow conference meet because of conditions and likely tempoing sections. People might try to put them over Rosemount after a couple wins, but those were in smaller meets. I see them in 3rd but wouldn’t be surprised if the come out and steal 2nd or even the whole thing.

4. Minnetonka: No clue why this whole thread loves to say Tonka is a dark horse state contender. They aren’t. I’d be surprised if they break the top 3 much less win. They just don’t compare to the top teams especially with Ryan Fries not 100%.

Individuals -

1. Nick Gilles: much like the team race this has really become anyone’s game. Even if Breker is 90% I don’t think he’d be able to pull this one off. If Breker was fully healthy he would easily be the favorite. But with the uncertainty around him I don’t see why Gilles can’t repeat. He’s coming into form at the perfect time with a dominant sections performance. We’ve also seen his killer kick multiple times this year (including at Olaf to beat Sam Scott).

2. Sam Scott: pretty interchangeable with Gilles imo. Dropped one race each to Casey and Jones but beat them both after that. I think Gilles gets him in the kick but he has a chance to pull it out.

3. Noah Breker: if healthy this would be his title to lose, but I doubt he’s quite there yet and don’t see him pulling it out over Scott and Gilles. NXR is probably his main goal regardless so he won’t want to ruin his chances of NXN here.

4. Andrew Casey: pretty interchangeable with Jones, both have 1 race over the other but Casey was able to tempo sections and beat Jones more recently than Jones beat him.

5, Aidan Jones: ^^^

6. Hamza Mohammed

7. Nolan Sutter

8. Adam Lueth

9. Elliott McArthur

10. Daniel McCollor

LOL. What course was easy? Valleywood? The course that has more elevation gain than Gale Woods? I'd say they're right about equal. Arguments could be made for either.

The question would be is Valleywood short which I think it is, not sure by how much.

But regardless, Tonka ran at Nike Previews which is obv ridiculously flat and then tried to use those times to say they were best in the state.

In my opinion, there is no way Minnetonka will be in the top 5. Both Stillwater and Mounds View have a better shot at 4 and 5. These are well coached teams with a long history of success.