This quoted post has been removed.
Probably not true but if it is it doesn't matter because Iran isn't that accurate.
-
03
-
Stephen Dowling Bots wrote:
Precious Roy wrote:
Kurds in the western corner of Iran are mobilizing and expected to launch an offensive against government forces after government forces targeted them after the US offensive started. Trump has reportedly spoken with Kurdish leaders, but it is unclear what the US will do for them. This may sound great to Trumpers who will claim that it is the beginning of a revolt against the regime. The problem then is that Turkey will not tolerate any attempt by the Kurds to create an independent nation and will more than likely intervene even on Iraqi or Iranian soil to stop the creation of a greater Kurdistan.
^This is correct. If the CIA arms the Kurds and they do wind up getting involved in ground insurrection in Iran expect a strong response from Turkey. This war will expand quickly if this happens.
Perfectly on cue. Turkey will not defend Iran from the Kurds. Turkey has long seen Iran as a rival to its ability to project power into the region. Turkey will go ballistic if the Kurds claim independence from Iran. So, as long as the Kurds don't get any ideas, Turkey will hold its powder.
But having the Kurds start a civil war, even if they behave and don't start talking about Kurdistan, will not be good for the US. If the Kurds are fighting with US weapons, then Iran will keep bombing US targets in the region even if the US wants to end fighting. This war needs to wrap it up by the end of next week to keep it from tanking the US and world economy. Iran will not be willing to do another 12 day war deal if the Kurds are fighting a civil war with US weapons.
30 -
Glitter Bomb Turbo wrote:
This quoted post has been removed.
Probably not true but if it is it doesn't matter because Iran isn't that accurate.
You’ve completely missed the point.
21 -
Sign Barron up wrote:
Glitter Bomb Turbo wrote:
Probably not true but if it is it doesn't matter because Iran isn't that accurate.
You’ve completely missed the point.
Yeah I don't think so
03 -
This quoted post has been removed.
Exactly. Does Hamas use mosques as attack sites?
13 -
trump2028!! wrote:
This quoted post has been removed.
Exactly. Does Hamas use mosques as attack sites?
My comment is about storing and firing rockets from populated areas, both sides do that.
21 -
71
-
riggsss wrote:
Precious Roy wrote:
Oil prices have dropped a bit after Trump promised to provide military escorts and insurance for oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. While a good move to keep oil prices from spiraling out of control, the US is now basically providing free security and insurance to oil that will primarily go to China.
wellll sure but that' snot all!. it's really to keep Europe from going into emergency mode. Europe is freaking out about higher oil prices - stocks fell very hard there. And India too - they get most of their oil through Hormuz.
and remember trump thinks high gas prices is the main thing that causes inflation...and he can't have inflation. So he needs lower gas prices for his domestic strategy.
China buys about 40% of the oil that flows through the Straits of Hormuz. China also buys about 80% of Iran's oil. If the war takes Iran's production offline, China will have to buy more of everyone else's oil from the Straits. Overall, China gets 50% of its oil from the Gulf states.
The big concern for the EU is natural gas. EU has big contracts with Qatar for LNG. Those shipments have to go through Hormuz and them back around the Red Sea through Suez. Qatar has shut down its LNG terminal.
The US promise to protect shipping lanes will probably turn out to be a fool's errand. The US might get lucky and get a few ships through unscathed. But it is too easy to deploy mines, launch a drone or missile and hit a tanker. And Iran has no interest in sinking tankers in the straits as commercial fishing is very important for Iran (so much so that Iran has managed to badly overfish the Persian Gulf). Iran just needs to hit boats with drones to damage them enough that they cannot make it through the Gulf. And to scare shipping companies to stay put at port.
30 -
Precious Roy wrote:
riggsss wrote:
wellll sure but that' snot all!. it's really to keep Europe from going into emergency mode. Europe is freaking out about higher oil prices - stocks fell very hard there. And India too - they get most of their oil through Hormuz.
and remember trump thinks high gas prices is the main thing that causes inflation...and he can't have inflation. So he needs lower gas prices for his domestic strategy.
China buys about 40% of the oil that flows through the Straits of Hormuz. China also buys about 80% of Iran's oil. If the war takes Iran's production offline, China will have to buy more of everyone else's oil from the Straits. Overall, China gets 50% of its oil from the Gulf states.
The big concern for the EU is natural gas. EU has big contracts with Qatar for LNG. Those shipments have to go through Hormuz and them back around the Red Sea through Suez. Qatar has shut down its LNG terminal.
The US promise to protect shipping lanes will probably turn out to be a fool's errand. The US might get lucky and get a few ships through unscathed. But it is too easy to deploy mines, launch a drone or missile and hit a tanker. And Iran has no interest in sinking tankers in the straits as commercial fishing is very important for Iran (so much so that Iran has managed to badly overfish the Persian Gulf). Iran just needs to hit boats with drones to damage them enough that they cannot make it through the Gulf. And to scare shipping companies to stay put at port.
here's my point about India. Any disruption of Hormuz will be a serious problem for that nation. I couldn't quickly find a similar data point for china. Obvi china gets a lot of oil from RU, which russia would be happy to increase if they can manage the logistics.
India imports approximately 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels of crude oil per day, with around 50% of its total imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint is crucial for India's oil supply, as it handles about one-fifth of global liquid petroleum consumption. Any disruption in this route could significantly impact India's oil imports, potentially affecting its energy security and trade flows
20 -
The four reservists killed in the Kuwaiti strike were named. By their ages alone, some of them were likely parents
10 -
Sen. Blumenthal emerges from a briefing on the war and says that he is more fearful than ever that there will be boots on the ground. The US does not have a Gulf War size force ready to land in Iran. There are about 40-50,000 US troops spread out over a dozen locations in the Middle East. Of those, maybe 5,000-10,000 are forces that are ready to deploy into Iran. Iran has over 600,000 active duty troops, but they are spread out all over the country and primarily serve to keep the domestic population in line.
I think the US is going to send in special forces to try and take out stockpiles of missiles and drones that are hidden in the mountains. This would be very interesting to see how US tactics have evolved since fighting in the mountains in Afghanistan and in light of drone technology and the spooky energy weapon used against Maduro's forces.
I do not think that the US is dumb enough to try and take Tehran or even some of the strategic port towns along Hormuz.
20 -
Precious Roy wrote:
Sen. Blumenthal emerges from a briefing on the war and says that he is more fearful than ever that there will be boots on the ground. The US does not have a Gulf War size force ready to land in Iran. There are about 40-50,000 US troops spread out over a dozen locations in the Middle East. Of those, maybe 5,000-10,000 are forces that are ready to deploy into Iran. Iran has over 600,000 active duty troops, but they are spread out all over the country and primarily serve to keep the domestic population in line.
I think the US is going to send in special forces to try and take out stockpiles of missiles and drones that are hidden in the mountains. This would be very interesting to see how US tactics have evolved since fighting in the mountains in Afghanistan and in light of drone technology and the spooky energy weapon used against Maduro's forces.
I do not think that the US is dumb enough to try and take Tehran or even some of the strategic port towns along Hormuz.
The U.S. is short on munitions. Trump spent money to keep weapons up to date on something else.
"You’ve fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia..."
20 -
Sign Barron up wrote:
My comment is about storing and firing rockets from populated areas, both sides do that.
Biden stored classified documents in Chinatown.
03 -
Munitions wrote:
The U.S. is short on munitions. Trump spent money to keep weapons up to date on something else.
"You’ve fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia..."
Inconceivable!
12 -
Munitions wrote:
The U.S. is short on munitions. Trump spent money to keep weapons up to date on something else.
"You’ve fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia..."
We would have a lot less munitions if the Iranian leaders learned to teleconference.
13 -
Glitter Bomb Turbo wrote:
Munitions wrote:
The U.S. is short on munitions. Trump spent money to keep weapons up to date on something else.
"You’ve fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia..."
We would have a lot less munitions if the Iranian leaders learned to teleconference.
2 times US/Israel bombed Iran during negotiations
10
4 posts were removed from this page.
What People Are Talking About On LetsRun
No top threads at the moment. Check back soon.