Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

agip wrote:

to put a point on IHME's argument....total US deaths are down around 25% already from their worst day. They see that decline continuing.

You are suggesting that the deaths will reaccerate as the virus moves out of NYC NJ CT.

They think it won't.

I thought you didn't trust the Chinese data?

If so, I would urge you against putting too much stock in the IHME model of the decline.

moderates suck wrote:

agip wrote:

to put a point on IHME's argument....total US deaths are down around 25% already from their worst day. They see that decline continuing.

You are suggesting that the deaths will reaccerate as the virus moves out of NYC NJ CT.

They think it won't.

I thought you didn't trust the Chinese data?

If so, I would urge you against putting too much stock in the IHME model of the decline.

I don't trust the chinese or indian or brazilian or russian data. Or californian.

I don't put too much stock in IHME either. But they know much more than I do, that's for sure.

Fat hurts wrote:

I assume you are looking at deaths here?

Unfortunately, we just hit a record for new daily cases. And it broke the previous record by a lot.

New cases yesterday: 38,958

New cases April 4th: 34,517 (old record)

What I'm afraid of is that much of the older data was driven by New York and the surrounding area.

This new record is only one day of data, but it's the third day in a row that we were over 30,000. We haven't seen three days like that since April 11th. It could mean that now there are more places with large outbreaks and we are going to see New York play out over more and more cities and smaller communities.

If that's the case, we will see 150,000 deaths in the US by the end of May.

I understand your point(s), but I think it's important to keep in mind that more people are being tested and more diagnosticians are identifiying COVID-19 accurately, compared with even a few weeks ago.

In that sense, we *should* be seeing more new cases identified; the larger numbers may be an artefact of better identification, rather than of more infection per se.

That said, I think we're at a really interesting point in the epidemic in America. In New York City, infection with SARS-CoV-2 is increasingly a class-related phenomenon; and, in New York as well as most of the rest of the country, class inevitably shifts to race.

If (and it *is* an "if"--I don't know that this is happening) the images of NYC COVID-19 sickness and death are increasingly presented to the rest of the country as a brown-person phenomenon, then most Americans may feel comfortable with taking the novel coronavirus in stride and getting back to business as usual.

In that case, unless an effective vaccine arrives very soon I certainly would expect another big wave of infections and death, now among white people in the heartland. This could be devastating for Mr. Trump's re-election chances but also a severe setback for many other GOP candidates.

agip wrote:

"Republicans were taken aback this past week by the results of a 17-state survey commissioned by the Republican National Committee. It found the president struggling in the Electoral College battlegrounds and likely to lose without signs of an economic rebound this fall, according to a party strategist outside the R.N.C. who is familiar with the poll’s results."

There will be a yuge economic rebound this fall.

Q3 GDP growth is projected to be 5.4% (23.5% on annual base). When was the last time we had such a rapid growth?

At the current death rate we will pass the IHME August projection NEXT WEEK.

As I pointed out earlier, the IHME model assumes that mandated social distancing orders remain. But that is not what is happening. In many places they are being lifted. Also, the model itself has not been updated since April 22nd. This is after the three-day spike we have seen in new cases.

Certainly, this spike might be caused from a spike in testing. But given what we are hearing about shortages of swabs and reagents, I doubt that testing capacity has increased that much. (Though if anyone is tracking this, I'd love to see hard data.)

I'm afraid that we are seeing the start of a new wave that is more broad-based in its locations across the US. I don't know that this is the case, but I'm worried about it.

jesseriley wrote:

At the current death rate we will pass the IHME August projection NEXT WEEK.

Right now we are 4% above the IHME projection. But that is well within their confidence interval. They are assuming that daily deaths will level off very soon.

The high end of their projection is over 120,000 deaths by the end of May.

I said 150,000, but I'm thinking that the IHME model has not yet been adjusted for states like Georgia, who are easing restrictions.

Trump's approval rating keeps plummeting. He is now at a 43% approval. He is lower, at the same point of their presidency than every president since Eisenhower except for George H.W Bush and Jimmy Carter. They both lost re-election bids.

The Republicans are in trouble. Trump supporters must be getting tired of having to rationalize repeatedly all the dumb comments coming from Trump. He is making his supporters look foolish. Do they have to lie and agree that he was being sarcastic with the bleach comment or can they just admit, no he wasn't sarcastic, he just lied about it.

If Trump supporters were not so pig headed, I'd feel sorry for them.

corona trump wrote:

Trump's approval rating keeps plummeting. He is now at a 43% approval. He is lower, at the same point of their presidency than every president since Eisenhower except for George H.W Bush and Jimmy Carter. They both lost re-election bids.

The Republicans are in trouble. Trump supporters must be getting tired of having to rationalize repeatedly all the dumb comments coming from Trump. He is making his supporters look foolish. Do they have to lie and agree that he was being sarcastic with the bleach comment or can they just admit, no he wasn't sarcastic, he just lied about it.

If Trump supporters were not so pig headed, I'd feel sorry for them.

Trump was behind in every poll four years ago. Look what happened in November.

Broke AF.

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/trump-golf-courses-britain-ireland-bailout-132110787.html

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Dementia Joe supporters continue...

Nobody cares, Joe can shoot someone on 5th ave and too many people will still hate trump too much to vote for him.

Semsurrrrrrrr wrote:

Broke AF.

The UK is certain to help out a guy who refused to pay for a lawsuit he lost.

Drain the Swamp wrote:

agip wrote:

"Republicans were taken aback this past week by the results of a 17-state survey commissioned by the Republican National Committee. It found the president struggling in the Electoral College battlegrounds and likely to lose without signs of an economic rebound this fall, according to a party strategist outside the R.N.C. who is familiar with the poll’s results."

There will be a yuge economic rebound this fall.

Q3 GDP growth is projected to be 5.4% (23.5% on annual base). When was the last time we had such a rapid growth?

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335

There won't be a rebound. Unless you're talking about the coronavirus. The health experts say it's coming back in the fall.

Drain the Swamp wrote:

corona trump wrote:

Trump's approval rating keeps plummeting. He is now at a 43% approval. He is lower, at the same point of their presidency than every president since Eisenhower except for George H.W Bush and Jimmy Carter. They both lost re-election bids.

The Republicans are in trouble. Trump supporters must be getting tired of having to rationalize repeatedly all the dumb comments coming from Trump. He is making his supporters look foolish. Do they have to lie and agree that he was being sarcastic with the bleach comment or can they just admit, no he wasn't sarcastic, he just lied about it.

If Trump supporters were not so pig headed, I'd feel sorry for them.

Trump was behind in every poll four years ago. Look what happened in November.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/24/lefts-response-amid-coronavirus-lockdowns-will-re-elect-trump/

Trump is not running against the hated Hillary and we got to see the incompetent Trump in action.

And Hillary was such a BAD campaigner she couldn't even put away Bernie Sanders with all her advantages.

If you think Trump will defeat Biden as easily as Hillary you are in for a huge disappointment. Biden won't put up with the crap Hillary did.

Any if Biden uses Bloomberg's people, Trump is dead in the water. Bloomberg knows how to run killer ads.

The biggest question is not if Trump is going to lose, it's whether Trump will end up serving time in jail after the election.

Why do they always deny, apologize and generally try to weasel out of it?

Why don’t they ever own their actions? It’s so cowardly, like a petulant teenager having a tantrum.

Corona Trump wrote:

And Hillary was such a BAD campaigner she couldn't even put away Bernie Sanders with all her advantages.

If you think Trump will defeat Biden as easily as Hillary you are in for a huge disappointment. Biden won't put up with the crap Hillary did.

Any if Biden uses Bloomberg's people, Trump is dead in the water. Bloomberg knows how to run killer ads.

The biggest question is not if Trump is going to lose, it's whether Trump will end up serving time in jail after the election.

All good points. Trump had more working in his favor than he and a lot of people expected. That people thought HRC had it in the bag did not mean that she was liked or respected. Mother Russia helped to amplify the bad a lot, and along with the leak and the email investigation with Comey laying it up for Trump gave him an edge at the very last moment.

The main unknowns with Biden are what will Putin throw at social media and what last second conniving will Trump engage in? I have no doubts he will try something much more extreme, as he understands what the consequences of losing might be. From the primary contest, it sure seems Biden's camp executed a good ground game unlike HRC, and the bigger thing trump cannot take away no matter what he does is that Biden has been very well liked by most politicians his whole career... a NY conman can't erase that.

Everyday trump goes on TV he gives the Biden camp more ammo. He's really starting to look like a lunatic out there with his suggestions and gut feelings. Remember that he had Rudy turning Ukraine upside down trying to find anything on Biden, and they got nada... now settling for dementia... no wonder rigged is trigged.