change of direction.... wrote:
kibitzer wrote:
1) FYI it now appears that there were COVID-19 deaths in *California* at least as early as 6 Feb.
2) NYC has a much greater population density than most other American cities. Apparently this is a very contagious virus and people who live in close proximity to each other are at extra risk.
Those two facts point in opposite directions on this issue... plus the population is pretty dense in LA... less so than NYC though...
The issue seems so odd... so many more deaths in NY percentage wise... again, I thought it was due to timeline issues but that doesn't appear to be the case unless NY got the virus much earlier than west coast... which I suppose is possible.
I think some of it is luck.
Epidemiologists have been talking about "super spreader" events. One was in a remote part of southwest Georgia where a single day at a funeral home infected lots of people. Now southwest Georgia, despite being very rural and sparsely populated, is one of the worst hit areas of the US. Why that funeral home and not others around the US? Luck.
A lot of press recently has gone to a super spreading event at a meat processing plant in South Dakota. Why was that plant hit but not most of the others? Luck.
Of course, it's not all luck. California probably shut down harder and faster than any other state. So California, despite its population density, was able to lower the probability of super-spreading events. Thus, it appears to have dodged a bullet.
Sometimes, you make your own luck.