Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

I specifically added the term 'in densely populated areas.' In NYC something like 50% of tests are coming back positive. While in upstate NY it's far lower.

I don't believe we don't have evidence yet to absolutely rule out some herd immunity starting to help the situation in NYC. Not necessarily the dominant factor but one of the factors, along with social distancing.

I'm sorta making that up, which is a mistake. But certainly we will know more soon as many studies are underway trying to determine how many of us have already had the disease.

From what I've read, the possibility of any herd immunity at this point is almost zero. The medical community would have to be incredibly wrong about the spread of the virus and the incidence of asymptomatic carriers.

It seems pretty impossible that enough people have contracted the virus right now to make any difference at all.

A few things that folks on here may wish to understand.

1) SIP actions precede reductions in case numbers by 7 - 10 days. This has been demonstrated in nation after nation.

2) Reductions in case growth rates precede reductions in death growth rates by 7 - 10 days. Again, demonstrated over and over again.

3) Reductions in death growth rates precede reductions in actual numbers of deaths by about 10 days. Again, demonstrated over and over again - but this one could be deduced using simple math.

The result of this is that if you are looking at absolute numbers of deaths to gauge where we are in this thing then you are somewhere around 24 - 30 days behind the real story. Think about that, you are a month behind what is actually happening with COVID-19.

And for those of you who don't like models - this is not modeling telling me or anyone else the above. It is simply demonstrated fact.

If you want to have some understanding of what is going on without being absurdly behind then focus on daily growth rates in number of cases as a percentage of cumulative case numbers. This tells the story. And you will be only a week behind the real story instead of a month behind.

Fat hurts wrote:

agip wrote:

I'm sorta making that up, which is a mistake. But certainly we will know more soon as many studies are underway trying to determine how many of us have already had the disease.

From what I've read, the possibility of any herd immunity at this point is almost zero. The medical community would have to be incredibly wrong about the spread of the virus and the incidence of asymptomatic carriers.

It seems pretty impossible that enough people have contracted the virus right now to make any difference at all.

CORRECT! (as seems to be usual for you)

And now for some different numbers.

People tend to focus on the number of recorded deaths when trying to understand how much we should invest in trying to get this thing under control. But that is looking through the wrong end of the binoculars. As Rhacket pointed out earlier, what you invest for (incurring painful economic costs) has nothing to do with the people who die. It has everything to do with the people who do NOT die but would have if not for the sacrifices we make as a society.

Here are the numbers for that. These show the impact of SIP. They necessarily rely on a bit of modeling, but really very little since they only look a few weeks out.

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For each nation (or group of nations) the following information is presented:

1) Average daily growth in deaths (as % of cumulative deaths) prior to SIP

2) Average daily growth in deaths (as % of cumulative deaths) currently (with SIP)

3) Number of deaths avoided by SIP to date

4) Likely total number of deaths avoided by SIP projecting out to the end of April (end of "numbers are already baked in" period)

///

Italy

Average daily growth in deaths, pre-SIP (%): 32

Current daily growth in deaths (%): 3.5

Number of deaths avoided by SIP to date: 480,000

Number of deaths avoided by SIP projected through April 30: 1.4 million

Spain

Average daily growth in deaths, pre-SIP (%): 35

Current daily growth in deaths (%): 5.0

Number of deaths avoided by SIP to date: 120,000

Number of deaths avoided by SIP projected through April 30: 830,000

US

Average daily growth in deaths, pre-SIP (%): 30

Current daily growth in deaths (%): 14

Number of deaths avoided by SIP to date: 50,000

Number of deaths avoided by SIP projected through April 30: 1.5 million

World, (excluding China)

Average daily growth in deaths, pre-SIP (%): 23

Current daily growth in deaths (%): 8.3

Number of deaths avoided by SIP to date: 2.2 million

Number of deaths avoided by SIP projected through April 30: 30 million

///

Is the economic pain worth it? That is a matter of opinion. But the numbers above are the numbers to consider (+/-) when contemplating this question - NOT the number of deaths that we have actually experienced.

Drain the Swamp. wrote:

agip wrote:

There is no doubt in my mind that scholars in the future will regard Trump as the very worst president we've ever had to this point. At least since WW2 anyway.

Before that the game was different.

You mean, the very best president in history?

All the "experts" had been predicting that more than 100,00 Americans would die under the best possible scenario.

But now the projection is about 60,000, thanks to President Trump's superb leadership.

No one could have handled this crisis better.

If there is a better outcome it will be because of State governors and mayors and not because of the malign incompetent in the WH.

President Trump: 46% approve, 51% disapprove

Andrew Cuomo: 59% approve, 17% disapprove

Dr. Anthony Fauci: 78% approve, 7% disapprove

State's governor": 74% approve, 24% disapprove

On the Economy: 60% getting worse, 19% staying about the same; 16% getting better.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3658

P wrote:

agip wrote:

I specifically added the term 'in densely populated areas.' In NYC something like 50% of tests are coming back positive. While in upstate NY it's far lower.

I don't believe we don't have evidence yet to absolutely rule out some herd immunity starting to help the situation in NYC. Not necessarily the dominant factor but one of the factors, along with social distancing.

And you are STILL wrong. 50% of tests coming back positive means that 50% of those tested (genereally with COVID-19 symptoms) do indeed have COVID-19. It does NOT mean that 50% of the population has been infected with COVID-19.

Sorry, but we are a LONG way from "herd immunity" everywhere. That's just a fact. An unfortunate one but still a fact.

No idea why I am arguing with you because you just get angry and start lashing out, but I think you are arguing the wrong side of that evidence.

is this not true? I dont' know the science.

If 50% of the people who test come up positive...that allows for up to 50% of the tests (in other words every test that wasn't positive) to mean that person *had* the virus in her body but no longer does.

Is this not possible in theory?:

100 tests:

50% have the virus

50% had the virus but no longer have the virus.

If many people who test negative only test negatvie because they had the virus and beat it...then there would be a ton of immunity out there.

I'm not claiming this to be true.

P wrote:

agip wrote:

I specifically added the term 'in densely populated areas.' In NYC something like 50% of tests are coming back positive. While in upstate NY it's far lower.

I don't believe we don't have evidence yet to absolutely rule out some herd immunity starting to help the situation in NYC. Not necessarily the dominant factor but one of the factors, along with social distancing.

And you are STILL wrong. 50% of tests coming back positive means that 50% of those tested (genereally with COVID-19 symptoms) do indeed have COVID-19. It does NOT mean that 50% of the population has been infected with COVID-19.

Sorry, but we are a LONG way from "herd immunity" everywhere. That's just a fact. An unfortunate one but still a fact.

The city came to a screeching halt 2 weeks ago. We are almost done seeing the damage from a tiny portion of the population having been exposed. I cannot imagine herd immunity is even relevant at the moment, as we would need a material proportion of the population to have gotten and recovered from the virus. And at this rate given the measures it is going to take a long time to get there, for a good reason. The big question is what will happen when there is the slightest loosening of restrictions.

How many have been tested so far, disregarding whether the result was positive or negative?

Sorry, but you just don't understand numbers. Great guy, but definitely mathematically challenged. Not really worth it to try to explain the math to you (for the nth time). You just don't get math and that OK (sort of).

The evidence is becoming clear from a multitude of directions that the Agip Coefficient is less than 20, probably less than 10, and possibly as low as 4 or 5. No chance that it is high enough for herd immunity to kick in yet.

Another fellow who gets it ^

jesseriley wrote:

Adjusted for inflation, that’s an all-time low.

Or as sally would say, It’s not an all-time low! We’ve only had gasoline for 150 years!

Well played.

But all of that is only as informative as the policies put into place. Once the stay home orders came in I already knew the curve was going to flatten in a couple of weeks, as the life threatening infections played out and the spread of new infections was mostly neutralized. So the models are just confirming the results expected from the various measures. What will we see now in terms of different governments attempting to relax? Will some of them be forced to shut down again, or several times?

In NYC the rest of the school year is pretty much over, nobody is going back until the fall. That removes a lot of potential carriers from the equation. Does that mean we are simply delaying and expecting to manage the inevitable? if so then I expect restrictions will be needed for well over a year to achieve a high enough level of immunity across the population.

It will be a whole year of trump’s America, special edition:

agip wrote:

There is no doubt in my mind that scholars in the future will regard Trump as the very worst president we've ever had to this point. At least since WW2 anyway.

Before that the game was different.

He had already won that label one year in. Yeah, let’s just call him special.

Looks like hydroxychloroquine is working! Great news

Armstronglivs wrote:

Drain the Swamp. wrote:

You mean, the very best president in history?

All the "experts" had been predicting that more than 100,00 Americans would die under the best possible scenario.

But now the projection is about 60,000, thanks to President Trump's superb leadership.

No one could have handled this crisis better.

If there is a better outcome it will be because of State governors and mayors and not because of the malign incompetent in the WH.

Andrew Cuomo was told years ago by someone (like an inspector general or health person) in his administration that up t0 15,000 ventilators might be needed if a pandemic such as this struck NY. He did NOTHING. NOTHING. When the sh*t did hit the fan in NY guess how many ventilators requested? Oh yeah - 15,000.

The state governors have done splendidly. Well, at least the Republican governors. The worst 7 states suffering from this virus have at their helm, Democratic governors. So yeah - state governors have done well - but it seems the ones who HAVE done well have "R-" behind their name.

semsurrrrrr wrote:

Looks like hydroxychloroquine is working! Great news

The media and all the Dems in Congress are praying that it is not effective. Especially the media. They are praying that what Trump said about the efficacy of the drug transitioning over to the treatment will never come to fruition. If Trump was indeed prescient about this drug and how effective it might be in treating this pandemic, Biden is done in November.

semsurrrrrr wrote:

Looks like hydroxychloroquine is working! Great news

The U.S. is starting to ramp up on the recovery phase, same as other countries did. That is not due to hydroxychloroquine. Don't buy the snake oil.

Snow Cat wrote:

semsurrrrrr wrote:

Looks like hydroxychloroquine is working! Great news

The U.S. is starting to ramp up on the recovery phase, same as other countries did. That is not due to hydroxychloroquine. Don't buy the snake oil.

Texas has 5 of the 13 most populous cities in the country. Its number of deaths is but a fraction of NY and NJ. Republican governor, Greg Abbott. We are getting to open up much of the state in the not-too-distant future. YOu are damn right that state governors are doing great. At least this Republican one is. Next time vote republican. You will be better served. Cuomo dropped the ball on this big-time as did the other 6 Dem governors at the top of the heep.