Brent crude at $83 and climbing. China has about 100 days of oil reserves that it stocked up in anticipation of another war with Iran. The US is capable of meeting its own oil requirements with existing domestic production. So a 1970s style energy crisis is not imminent. But the Gulf states are big investors in the US AI stocks and shocks to their oil revenues may cause them to cash out which would then cause a huge market crash.
Trump has a week to either wrap this up or get the straits of Hormuz open. The latter is nearly impossible as Iran has missile batteries and drones hidden in the mountains. They would have to be taken out one by one and ground forces would really be needed to do that effectively.
If this continues past this week, next week oil will break $100 and the stock markets will be down at least 10%. A month of this means another Great Recession especially if oil infrastructure is heavily damaged around the Persian Gulf.
Whatever you think about geopolitics and this war is going to be irrelevant. Whatever you think about the combatants’ military strength and weaknesses is going to be irrelevant. The US and world economy is not going to be able to handle the shock in energy prices in combination with a burst in the AI stocks bubble.