Why couldn't bekele break 7:20 ?

Daniel Komen is the greatest distance runner of all time. Period. Reason people don't give credit to this statemt is because he didn't compete long enough to medal. This man would have crushed bekele.

Bostonfan94 wrote:

Daniel Komen is the greatest distance runner of all time. Period. Reason people don't give credit to this statemt is because he didn't compete long enough to medal. This man would have crushed bekele.

I have a hard time believing that since he didn't crush Geb (and Bekele is better than Geb)

over 3000m he would destroy KB. Over 5000m he would not.

and 10000m he would be way behind.

read the stats

- komen - 4'53 split - 7'20

- kennster - 5'02 on freezing, rainy day - 7'26

kennster was in ~ 7'20 shape that day with a decent pacer who coud get him thru in 4'54/4'55 on a warm day

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_gNfJHDg0g

so ?

geb finished in 56.77 in his 12'39 meaning he had run hugely inefficient race, from 3k onwards to 4th k in this case

to run 56.77 finish in 12'39 showed he had huge energy in reserve to the bell

in contrast, komen in his 12'39 ran a more even paced race ( but slightly slow 4th km ) & coud only muster ~ 60s for his last lap

komen was near his limit at the bell in his 12'39, whereas geb was far from it - he couda probably gone 12'35/12'36 if he'd risked running the 4th km hard & finishing with only a ~ 60 or 61

komen in contrast may have only been good for 12'37 that day in a perfect race

yes it is

see above

see the races & no the splits before you take about them

clueless

komen was ~ 60s in his 12'39 & ~ 59 in his 7'20

he ran very close to evenly in both races

geb didn't

eh ?

who said moorcroft ran his perfect race ??

he had little/no pacing & it's difficult to run evenly on your own for 12.5 laps

he couda probably gone 12'56/12'57 given that race again running it more evenly with experience gained from pain he experienced & still with little/no pacing

drivel

he knew he was long way behind the wr at 4k & upped the pace inexorably - hermens was legendary for being trackside shouting splits & telling him his relative position v clock

i watched that race live on satellite & i thought he had no chance of komen's wr at 4k point & was shocked he dragged it back

he's the best 5k guy i've ever seen & that includes kennster & to only finish his career with a 12'39pb significantly underestimates him

there is no chance kemboi was in 1'46 shape at his 10k peak, although it shows he was one of the most incredibly talented distance runners to find this speed 3y after his 10k best

in fact, he was worth much better than 26'30 that day

i watched the race on tv & didn't note the splits other than that they were on ~ wr shape upto 8k+ ( it was such an epic race with geb leading kemboi who was stalking him like a giant on shoulder of runt )

however, geb got terrified he had company & eased off to little more than an amble, saving himself for the big kick

it was completely kemboi's fault he didn't run past him ( geb obviously wouda followed ), but obviously he was in awe of him

they still went 26'29/26'30 !

canova his coach was obviously there & said kemboi went 1'23 for last 600 !!!

he said & obvious from finish kemboi was in well below 26'25 shape that day, probably a 26'22.5 - 26'25 if they'd kept on hammering the last coupla ks & screw the tactics

i always thought kemboi was typical elite kenyan 10k guy with ~ 53 speed but canova said he had 51.5 speed ( i presume he meant around that time but we'll have to ask next time he's here ) !

the prelim line of fit i have for kemboi that day is ~

51.5 / 1'48.1 ->

3'31.4 !

4'47.1 !

7'21.9 !

12'39.9 !

26'23.6

pity he got injured

obviously at just 20y at the time he wouda expected to improve on those estimates in the following years ( which couda meant wrs ) but injury finished his endurance but he found 1'46 !!!

He wasn't good enough over 3000m

Komen was the best there has ever been at that distance and backed it up with his 2 miles WR

for the record, kemboi must be absolutely considered a sub-26'25 talent rather than 26'30

his coach said he finished with 1'23 in his 26'30.03

this coud be 1'23.00 - 1'23.99

from incontestable conservation of energy principles

energy expended = distance * speed^3

1) assuming 1'23.99 finish, splits were

1506.04/83.99 ->

9400 * (9400/1506.04)^3

+

600 * (600/83.99)^3

= 2504346u

at even pace

2504346 = 10000 * ( 10000/V)^3 ->

26'26.48

2) assuming 1'23.00 finish, splits were

1507.03/83.00 ->

9400 * (9400/1507.03)^3

+

600 * (600/83.00)^3

= 2507766u

at even pace

2507766 = 10000 * ( 10000/V)^3 ->

26'25.76

therefore, just flattening out his initial 9400/last 600 gives him 26'25/26'26 at even pace

this doesn't include any uneveness in the initial 9400m

he was worth well below 26'25 that day ( probably lot closer to 26'20 )

It was timing.

2004 ran 12:37 @ 5k

2005 ran 26:17 @ 10k

2007 ran 7:25 @ 3k

Almost any good prediction calculator will show that 12:37 > 26:17 is pretty spot on. Both those times predict 7:17 for 3k. His 7:25, while fast, is still slow for his 5k/10k. His 1500, while only 3:32, is unreliable because he's never raced that distance enough to consider 3:32 his absolute best. If you plug the 7:25 it yields a 3:26 prediction. So...

If KB had run a perfectly set up 3k in that '04-'05 window I think he would have run 7:20 or come close to dipping under.

i woudn't be too sure about that

even though we haven't seen either approached last few years ( apart from paris 12'46 race last year ), the 10k record is weaker than the 5k

i can see 1/2 dozen guys going under 26'30 currently if they ever got their perfect race, but i don't see anyone going under 12'40

( sammy shouda gone 26'30 - 26'35 as an 18y ole if he'd not suicidally chased kennster in '06 - he was at 26'16 pace thru 6k !!! )

ole rule was

10k = double 5k + 1'00

that doesn't work at these levels anymore with most of talent on roads

probably shoud be more like 7'19

yes

he ran 7'26 off an utter crap 5'02 on a cold, rainy day

he was in ~ 7'20 shape that day on warm, dry day with wabbit who coud take him thru in 4'54

yes

~ 54.5 start was too fast

~ 57.7 for next helped some recouping but damage already done

~ 44.3 for next 300 was far, far too slow ( 59+ pace )

~ high-55 finish was pretty good considering previous

that was more like a high-3'30/low-3'31 at even pace

never ever plug in a 7'25 for him...

correct

but i have no idea how you arrived at that from your previous ...??!!

fredricksburgh wrote:

Even more impressive in Komen's 7:20 was the totally sporatic splits where he ran a totally uneven pace. he went out in like 57

7:20.67 is an average of 58.8 per lap. Komen's fastest lap was the first, 57.5. The slowest was 59.9. That's incredibly even if you ask me.

What's "sporatic" or "uneven" about going out in 57.5s?

you are overestimating the effects of the weather (probably ideal for distance - not sprint) and underestimating

a full 6 sec. At that level, such a differential is huge.

'Daniel Komen is the greatest distance runner of all time. Period. Reason people don't give credit to this statemt is because he didn't compete long enough to medal. '

One or two good years is not long enough to deserve tha accolade. You could have said on his day he could beat anybody

He won 5,000gold in 97 WC's. Whats your knowledge like on other runners if he is your favourite!

yyy wrote:you are overestimating the effects of the weather (probably ideal for distance - not sprint) and underestimating

a full 6 sec. At that level, such a differential is huge.

no

weather was crap, certainly worth handful of secs

it likely impacted also on derisory pacing which went 5'02 !!!

in those days kennster was looking for 7'25 pace at worst or 4'56 split

the effect of weather can be seen on how slow the 2k split was

Komen ran 12:39, which is only 2 seconds of KB's 12:37 world record. I think DK could have easily taken the 5000 world record in a better race when he was in top form.