I run 55-60 mpw and have broken 14:30. Can I break 30 soon?
You have a chance. But probably you cannot. You can likely run 30:20 though so you are not far off. If you have little speed you can probably break 30 now though.
I run 55-60 mpw and have broken 14:30. Can I break 30 soon?
You have a chance. But probably you cannot. You can likely run 30:20 though so you are not far off. If you have little speed you can probably break 30 now though.
To explain further, if your 400m ability is 56 or slower, you can probably break 30 now. But if your 400m ability is 53 or faster, then you probably cannot break 30 yet.
Start by putting in the 100+ mile weeks first, then observe your improvement. It is impossible to predict unless you try and see for yourself. Some people respond to high mileage very well and improve tremendously from high school, while others kind of plateau somewhere at a certain point.
Lenny Korir did run a 33 min 10k his first year at Iona and then came back a year later to run 27:29 and win NCAA's. Wejo also improved from a 30 min 10k guy in college to a 28 min 10k guy post college.
He’ll be observing his injuries. 100+ mile weeks is a terrible idea for someone at his level.
I'm 17 and I want to run a sub 30 minute 10k someday, but I'm just not talented. A lot of very hard work has gotten me down to an 18:15 5k, but I'm a senior and I get beaten by people with no mileage at all and lots of talent. I want to know if even without any talent, it is possible to achieve a sub 30 minute 10k. I am not afraid of 100+ mile weeks and working my butt off.
Right now, 18:15 for 5k by memory puts you at 36-37-ish for 10k, I think. If you can break it down into incremental goals you could get close, but it may take several years.
Get the 5k down to maybe sub-17 and then go from there. Race different distances and different speeds to get a feel for all the paces. Do lots of long runs as well to build your base.
In terms of marathoning that 18:15 will put you at 2:55-3:00 or so for the full and 1:24-1:25 for the half right now.
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I did the 100+ mile week thing for 4 years at college and left with a 31:01 pr. Sub 30 though? I dunno. I know a lot of really really good people that train extremely hard, and extremely smart, and can't get past the low 30's to save their lives.
It really is talent...and timing.
I ran 18:53 in HS, 11:30 in the 3200 (went out 75-75 the first 800; bad idea!) and 5:15 for the 1600 in '01-02. Got scared off from running in '04 when my ROTC instructor told me it would ruin my knees. I should have told him he was wrong but I didn't know about LRC. I didn't run at all from '04 to '17 (ages 20 to 33) and missed out on my peak athleticism, although I did run an 18:33 on short notice (2 mos. of training) in 2008.
Some guys run 18:20-19:00 but can kill a 1:24 half and 2:55 full. Some guys run 17:00-17:30 but struggle to hit 1:28 and 3:10...it really does depend on a lot of factors.
I'm 17 and I want to run a sub 30 minute 10k someday, but I'm just not talented. A lot of very hard work has gotten me down to an 18:15 5k, but I'm a senior and I get beaten by people with no mileage at all and lots of talent. I want to know if even without any talent, it is possible to achieve a sub 30 minute 10k. I am not afraid of 100+ mile weeks and working my butt off.
Right now, 18:15 for 5k by memory puts you at 36-37-ish for 10k, I think. If you can break it down into incremental goals you could get close, but it may take several years.
Get the 5k down to maybe sub-17 and then go from there. Race different distances and different speeds to get a feel for all the paces. Do lots of long runs as well to build your base.
In terms of marathoning that 18:15 will put you at 2:55-3:00 or so for the full and 1:24-1:25 for the half right now.
18:15 for 5k doubled equals 36:30 for 10k, so it is roughly equivalent to a 37:45-38:00. I do not think OP has enough talent to break 30:00, and it is some 11 years later, so I doubt he stayed with it. Plus, we don’t have enough information from the initial post to know what potential is really there. However, why not build up to run 100+ mi weeks anyway and see how fast you can get, at any level? Maybe sub-30 isn’t in the cards, but sub-33 likely is and who knows how fast you can be? Especially over longer distances.
Right now, 18:15 for 5k by memory puts you at 36-37-ish for 10k, I think. If you can break it down into incremental goals you could get close, but it may take several years.
Get the 5k down to maybe sub-17 and then go from there. Race different distances and different speeds to get a feel for all the paces. Do lots of long runs as well to build your base.
In terms of marathoning that 18:15 will put you at 2:55-3:00 or so for the full and 1:24-1:25 for the half right now.
18:15 for 5k doubled equals 36:30 for 10k, so it is roughly equivalent to a 37:45-38:00. I do not think OP has enough talent to break 30:00, and it is some 11 years later, so I doubt he stayed with it. Plus, we don’t have enough information from the initial post to know what potential is really there. However, why not build up to run 100+ mi weeks anyway and see how fast you can get, at any level? Maybe sub-30 isn’t in the cards, but sub-33 likely is and who knows how fast you can be? Especially over longer distances.
Good point--I know a guy in my neighborhood who cracked 40 last year at age 42. He was a 3:38 marathoner 3 years ago, then got down into the 3:22-3:28 bracket, bumped his mpw from 40 to 55-60, then ran a 3:13 in Baltimore last November--while racing the 39 10k, a 1:30 13.1 along the Blacklick Trail in Cbus, and also a 19:13 5k. Those times line up...he did those within a few weeks of each other (all last fall).
Point being--and you know this probably--it takes years and the path isn't linear!
Hell no. I'm not even sure that everyone is capable of a sub 40 minute 10K.
Not everyone can even run 400m.... 40mins might be up around 75% if people actually try. But almost no one wants to put in 12 hours of training for 5 years to run 40mins...
Too many posts to read them all, so hopefully this isn’t repetitive.
BYU won the national championship not too long ago. In other words, a top tier talented squad. Only 7 of the 10 who ran a 10k in 2022 outdoor track broke 30. One who didn’t is a guy who won NXN a few years ago.
It is a rare talent to break 30, regardless of effort.
Right now, 18:15 for 5k by memory puts you at 36-37-ish for 10k, I think. If you can break it down into incremental goals you could get close, but it may take several years.
Get the 5k down to maybe sub-17 and then go from there. Race different distances and different speeds to get a feel for all the paces. Do lots of long runs as well to build your base.
In terms of marathoning that 18:15 will put you at 2:55-3:00 or so for the full and 1:24-1:25 for the half right now.
18:15 for 5k doubled equals 36:30 for 10k, so it is roughly equivalent to a 37:45-38:00. I do not think OP has enough talent to break 30:00, and it is some 11 years later, so I doubt he stayed with it. Plus, we don’t have enough information from the initial post to know what potential is really there. However, why not build up to run 100+ mi weeks anyway and see how fast you can get, at any level? Maybe sub-30 isn’t in the cards, but sub-33 likely is and who knows how fast you can be? Especially over longer distances.
Because he’s almost guaranteed to break down with injuries or maybe just quit running completely. Someone at that level should train like an 18:00 runner and then increase volume as he improves.
Your advice is illogical anyway. 100+ mpw to run 33:00 would be a big waste of time.
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