MIAC Cross-Country 2009

The thing with SJU is that they don't have a front runner, which is really going to hurt them. This is especially true if their top 5 run as badly as they did last week, and is something that really helps teams like Augsburg with a low number at the front. Obviously it really hurt Olaf to have Ruon have a mediocre race this past week.

None of the teams are deep enough to compensate for one of their top 5 having a bad race. The team that wins conference will have their entire top 5 do more than just show up October 31st. May the best team win.

If the tommies win I am going to poop on their track.

SJU may not have that front runner like Olaf, Bethel, Augsburg, Macalester, etc. But the Conference race is much smaller than most of the races that teams run in during the season, so when St Johns puts 5 runners in the top 20 to 25 of the race, like I think they will, that will help them a lot more than having one in the top 5, then not having a second runner in for a while. Having that small spread helps a lot.

SJU does stand to do much better at conference than at regions... but Augsburg's 1 beat SJU's one, Augsburg's 2 & 3 beat SJU's 2, Augsburg's 5 beat SJU's 5. Augsburg beat them at all but the 4th runner.

Olaf beat SJU at the 1,2,4 and 5 runners, and that's with Doboul having an awful race.

I still think they probably have the best chance of finishing second or third because they can absorb a bad race or two. But one of the other top four should be able to beat them. My order:

Olaf

Augsburg

SJU

STU... (STU has a talent for tanking the big races, I'm guessing they peaked last week will drop off at conference and be worse at regions and the rest of the conference/region will rejoice.)

St. John's and St. Olaf were clearly off their game at LAX. They will race much better next time. Augsburg is another story. They might slide a bit at conference, and bounce back at regions.

Greeno will win this year.

1. Greeno

2. Eckstrom

3. Ruon

4. Haglund

5. Bauer

6. Sathre

7. Gamble

8. Marotz

9. Sames

10. Someone from SJU

1. St Thomas

2. St Olaf

3. Augsburg

4. St Johns

Men:

1. Greeno

2. Eckstrom

3. Haglund

4. Ruon

5. Sathre

6. Bauer

7. Sames

8. Marotz

9. Franta

10. Gamble

Teams:

1. Olaf

2. St. Thomas

3. St. John's

4. Augsburg

Women:

1. Borner

2. Childs-Walker

3. Roach

4. Potter

5. Sieve

6. Branigan

7. Russ

8. Jelen

9. Lee

10. Mork

Teams:

1. Bethel

2. Carleton

3. St. Thomas

*I put Branigan in 6th but I think by regions and nats she'll be the 3rd or 4th miac runner. Also not really sure about St. Thomas because they've only run 2 6ks.

Yes, it's 9 days out so this will probably change, but right now the weather shows a high of 43 with rain and snow next saturday.

I wouldn't declare Greeno the individual champion quite yet...over the past couple years there he should have won multiple conference titles and hasn't gotten one yet. Not saying he won't win, I agree he's the favorite, but don't count out Eckstrom, Haglund, or one of the Oles.

A couple of titles? Really? Last year, he had a legit shot, but definitely not in 2006 or 2007.

the american dream wrote:

A couple of titles? Really? Last year, he had a legit shot, but definitely not in 2006 or 2007.

He led the 10K in track for the first 5+ miles. He had to be the favorite going to the indoor season last year as well before Gamble schooled everyone. I may be mistaken, but I don't think he's been higher than 3rd in any conference race yet. CC/Indoor or Outdoor. Suprising considering how well he has done and how long he's hovered near the top.

I'm not declaring anyone the winner. Greeno is my prediction. He and everyone else still have to race. I just feel his time has come to win.

Watch out for Sathre for the top 3. I wouldn't rank Ruon so high--he's good, but he can't be very confident after LaX and even GRIAC. It's not likely that individuals or even teams that have done poorly in the last few meets can just "turn it on" come conference. SJU might be an exception--they're notorious for racing their best in the big races.

Looks like it will be cold and rainy Saturday. Got to love the sloppy conference meets.

MIAC Monday wrote:

Watch out for Sathre for the top 3. I wouldn't rank Ruon so high--he's good, but he can't be very confident after LaX and even GRIAC.

ummm... ruon was fifth at griak, 8 seconds behind greeno and

the 2nd miac runner overall. i think he'll be plenty confident.

It's not likely that individuals or even teams that have done poorly in the last few meets can just "turn it on" come conference. SJU might be an exception--they're notorious for racing their best in the big races.

2008 miac championships

1 St Olaf 75

2 Hamline 87

3 St Thomas 93

4 Bethel 96

5 St John's 116

Predictions:

1. Dan Greeno

2. Dobuol Ruon

3. Wade Ekstrom

4. Brent Haglund

5. Jake Marotz

6. Ian Bauer

7. Ben Sathre

8. Charlie Gamble

9. Dustin Franta

10. Mike Connell

Team:

1. St. Olaf

2. St. Thomas

3. St. John's

The returning champ has to be the favorite in my opinion. People who run fast early on in the season rarely back it up.

I would agree except it is obvious the Ruon crashes when it is cold. The high is predicted at 43 degrees with rain or snow. I know it can change but it's likely it will still be cold. I say Greeno. He still hasn't been conference champ and it looks like he isn't slowing down at the end of the season like he has before. I would throw Wade and haglund up there too. Possibly Bauer because he has been looking pretty good to and the hamdogs usually don't peak early in cross. I have to say UST is going to win and it will be a toss up for 2-4.

1. Dan Greeno

2. Brent Haglund

3. Wade Eckstrom

4. Jake Marotz

5. Ian Bauer

6. Ben Sathre

7. Charlie Gamble

8. Dobuol Ruon

9. Dustin Franta

10. John Davis

11. Mike Connell

12. Ryan Noack

13. Brian Sames

14. Victor Sanchez

15. Mark Hartman