early NCAA D1 XC predictions

Agree, four straight years of podium finishes (4th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd). If you don't have Iona in your top 4 predictions then you are just plan retarded.

young gunz wrote:

Northeast bias, but Iona every year seems to come out of nowhere to run extremely well, not saying they will win, but with sheridan, weller(346), joe parks(14:11 5k indoor), and with some more foreign talent from germany and ireland along with chris stogs, they will be right back up there, always have found a way...

Nobody is talking down Iona but the reality is theyve lost their big three guns and their 7th man Viscaino transferred. If we are all retarded, please enlighten us with who they have coming in and maybe I will agree with you they should be a top 5 team.

Gonzaga will be a top ten factor. Andrew is on fire right now!

Abdi liiifs!

iona returns: Ryan sheridan

Jason Weller

Alexander Soderberg

Joe Parks

They also reportedly have one of their best recruiting classes ever. They bring in stogsdill from NY, plus a horde of foriegn kids who apparently can make an impact right away. I would definitely keep them on my list of top 10 teams with an end of the season top 5 not surprising me.

i do know they have a few very good ppl from over seas ( Irish and German) and stogs just won non and was pretty good in cross...its a cross school, not a track school, so they do put much more focus on cross than track...and syracuse just flat out flops every regionals...columbia will have a shot coming out of the northeast regional with a good day and a bad iona/providence day....and no one seems to be mentioning chumbawumba from portland as a top 10 kid...he ran really well in cross last year.

I think a realistic, but slightly conservative look at Oregons finish could be as follows:

(After individual placers are removed)

6) Puskedra

19) McNamara

21) Centro

34) Mercado 1

37) Klotz

-------------------

40) Mercado 2

45) Wheating

Mercados and Klotz have already finished about this before so this is not expecting them to do anything special. Puskedra is slipping back 2 (since Rupp is out) and I say Fernandez and Derrick finish in front of him. McNamara is a big unknown. If he can train even relatively healthy for the summer and fall he could finish top 15 overall, but I'm counting on some set backs and finishing just out of 20 over all. Centro, I think he could show up to be a top 15 guy overall as well, but being conservative I put him at more like 25th overall. It comes down to him wanting to be a cross country runner and wanting to emerge at the top of the team. Wheating should have a long summer so he may just show up at the end as a "just in caser" to run mid pack and mowe people down and if 2 guys who should beat him have an off day he can save from disaster.

This doesn't take into account the new freshman, a healthy acosta or perhaps a transfer. Acosta should be able to finish in the top 40 overall, but he needs to learn how to race college cross country, where you get your @ss kicked by a lot of people but that doesn't mean you're running bad and should give up.

Ducks could certainly edge up a few places from my picks or fall back but something tells me when all the dust has settled the score will show up something like this 117 points. Question is, can others beat that?

Curious as to why people are so high on Mcnamara. Not hating I just haven't really seen anything that would suggest a top 20 prediction, or him being Oregon's second man. I realize he has frequently been injured but as far as I can tell his best performance is making the final of the 1500, something he would not have done if Centro had been healthy. Obviously that is still impressive but for a bigger guy with injury problems who was 12th in the 1500, is really reasonable to expect him to be only 8 places worse in 10k cross country?

Iona definitely will be good. However their names aren't thrown around as in years past because it took a huge hit with graduation. Parks has been injured for some time as well. They lost three All Americans and Viscaino was 11th at regionals. Hard to replace. Sheridan and Weller are great starts though. When it is confirmed that the overseas guys will show, then they will move up. Bagley seems like a sleeper. Like most frosh I don't see Stogsdill have an immediate impact. Sheridan and McCarthy of Prov. will battle for the regional win.

Syracuse is definitely not the joke amongst Division 1 coaches as mentioned above. Last year seemed tough, after two consec. thirds, but results had them run 3 frosh. No need for a coaching change at all and they have shown signs of a great American program (in a region of historically foreign dominated region) but now that it is year four for Fox, they will be judged accordingly.

Columbia certainly will be solid as usual. Third last year. Do their pack running. It is a shame that they just missed last year. Bottom line though is that they are killed (along with other Ivys) with no 5th year. Harnett is much improved.

Providence I feel has the best coach and team. McCarthy is a great number one and McLaren, Channon and Carey follow up. They are a good 5th man short, as of today, for a regularly discussed top 8-10 finish.

Only if Cornell could translate the good track work to XC. Hasn't really happened. Will definitely have a few good guys up front.

Dartmouth. Took big hits with losses of True and Randall. Not sure what is left.

Results from Regionals -

http://www.plattsys.com/results/res2008/nc108.htm

Women? Providence wins easy and big.

mrunn wrote:

is neuman running for colorado this fall?

Yes, as are Harkrader and Seth DeMoor, both of whom received a 6th year. Maybe it's Wetmore's Last Stand with a line-up of scary talent that has largely been written off due to inconsistency and injury:

CU 2009:

Jordan Kyle

Kenyon Neuman

Richard Medina

Seth DeMoor

Bradley Harkrader

Matt Tebo

Christian Thompson

----------------------

Joe DeMoor (10th FL F)

Andy Wacker

Stevens, Bosshard, Van Halen, M.Medina, et al.

1. Wisconsin

2. Oklahoma State

3. Oregon

4. Colorado

5. Iona

Check that:

1. Wisconsin

2. Stanford

3. Ok State

4. Oregon

5. Colorado

Iona is losing some big guns for sure, and I keep hearing all this stuff about some kids they are bringing in. Anyone know anything specific, or are we just assuming that they will find someone?

Providence is going to be good for sure, they lose like one kid and they had Webb and Channon run fast during track this year who will be big additions.

Columbia returns and should have a pack again.

Syracuse has a good combination of old and young talent, and will be competitive.

Cornell has a few really good track distance guys returning but idk if they have the 4 or 5.

We would have seen 4 come from the NE last year if Syracuse came in 4th, instead we saw 2. This year should be different.

Also, word is Oregon gets Michael Maag for his 5th year. He is without a doubt All-American material and has run in the low 1340's.

Maag only has indoors for Oregon

Maag has outdoors left

i dont know why people always write off Iona every single year and then they finish in the top 3 and people accuse them of buying their podium finish. This year they can have 3 of their top 5 scorers from the US. sheridan can finish in the top 10-15, parks can be anywhere from 30-50 on a good day.. he redshirted the spring season im assuming because i havent seen any results and weller wont be too far back behind him at all. throw in a 14:06 soderburg? in that pack too along with some international help that their inevitably going to get, and your looking at a repeat of last year.

Hey in case you weren't watching, McNamara is now in the USATF World Trials finals with a 3:41.15. He has been getting faster and faster since his first race just two months ago. Also, wasn't McNamara a national JC XC champion a couple years ago?

wanted to bump this with camps starting and worlds almost over.

The UofL Cards will be a top-10 team (barring injury).

Also, Providence is going to be a wicked tough team....the Big East is stacked again. Also top 10 caliber.

Is that English guy, David Forrester deffinatly going over to the US. If he is than he could be top 3. He was 24th at the Worlds in '08 when German was 25th. Also, Ciaran O'Lionaird has transferred to FSU and spent the summer in Flagstaff, so he will place very high. David McCarthy will be top 6-8 and Iona have recruited a new Irish guy, Craig Murphy, beat Ryan Sheridan at the Worlds in '08. Tough as a nut and the next 'Andrew Ledwith'. Another English guy, Ross Murray is going to Oklahoma State. Very good 1500m track runner and+the+fast+courses+over+in+the+US+will+suit+him.+Lee+Carey,+another+Brit+is+at+Providence+with+McCarthy.+Very+good+aswell.

The+Irish+and+British+are+comin'+folks+and+soon+the+rest+of+Europe+(and+Africa+and+Australia+and+NZ)+will+too.+Watch+out++Yanks!

Predictions,

1+Chelanga+

2+McNeill+

3+Puskedra+

4+Forrester+

5+Derrick+

6+Fernandez

7+McCarthy

8+Mead

9+O'Lionaird

10+Bumbalough

1+Oregon

2+FSU

3+Okla.+State

4+Stanford

5+Iona

6+Providence

Is that James Brewer guy that Cal is getting doing xc? If so, I imagine he'd be pretty decent, being a 3:54 miler and all.

what about bethke? no one has even mentioned him in all of this.