RE: Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market...

Gold (currently at about $1,000) and the Dow (7500) will be even soon. Short the Dow and buy gold. The end is near.

Fat Boy wrote:

My retirement account is up over 100% since July, about 50% this year. What is all this buy and hold crap? Make money now! I was short the N100 from about 1800 down to 1200. I've been in and out, long and short since. I'm now long the N100. I though 1200 would hold but it didn't so I am becoming a little concerned. The techs have been leading the way up as I predicted but the last couple days and today's afterhours are worrisome. Oh well, if I'm wrong, I'll get out and ride the next short wave down. That money in the fall was the easiest money I ever made. Go short and just ignore every rally-it was beautiful.

You are correct about the tech stocks. They have done decently well in 2009 so far and look to continue that trend. I'm not big into gold or any single commodity, but man it is tough to not just go buy some oil with it as low as it is. Oil and gold usually go in lock step, and for some reason they parted ways back in November -- even if they meet again with a fall in gold and a rise in oil, oil still rises. It just should NOT be $35 dollars a barrel.

At some point, they probably achieve equilibrium, but oil is reflecting (and signaling) the powerful force of deflation, while gold is measuring increasing RISK. Gold has unhinged from oil and the dollar, and, yet, it is in lockstep with credit default swap insurance on soverign debt, the price of which keeps rising. And nobody seems to notice, certainly not our legislators.

sagarin wrote:

At some point, they probably achieve equilibrium, but oil is reflecting (and signaling) the powerful force of deflation, while gold is measuring increasing RISK. Gold has unhinged from oil and the dollar, and, yet, it is in lockstep with credit default swap insurance on soverign debt, the price of which keeps rising. And nobody seems to notice, certainly not our legislators.

It is a weird time right now for sure. With oil so low you would think (as many experts predicted) that the Producer Price Index would have stayed flat or gone up slightly, so the 0.8% increase in January is a bit of a surprise to me. With oil so low and while in a recession, if we start to see inflation now, then that's a really really bad sign (not that there aren't others out there already).

In general I'm still a supporter of Obama, but I think guaranteeing 4% mortgages for buyers and owners would have been a lot more productive than what's been done for homeowners. Also, if we're spending money, tax credits to companies hiring people ($20,000 per headcount hired and retained for a year) would have stimulated job growth better than what's going to happen. I agree that we need to work on the infrastructure, but we could have gone after that separately.

Yeah, they were talking about that on CNBC last night. I suppose you could set up some kind of spread like buy them both and have yourself covered assuming they will join again. Setting the proportion of each to buy would be the hard part.

The techs don't look good today. I'm long and thinking of bailing. The whole market has been pretty sick the last couple weeks. I'm having a hard time positioning just to pick up a percent or two.

Beware of confusing performance with inflation.

When groceries went up 50% that doesn't mean you made 50%, it means you are paid 50% more, and paid 50% more taxes.

Take out inflation, and small gains are not gains, they are loses.

Flag is carrying a flask with a hole in it through the desert, saying he hasn't lost any water till he drinks it.

J.R. wrote:

Beware of confusing performance with inflation.

When groceries went up 50% that doesn't mean you made 50%, it means you are paid 50% more, and paid 50% more taxes.

Take out inflation, and small gains are not gains, they are loses.

Flag is carrying a flask with a hole in it through the desert, saying he hasn't lost any water till he drinks it.

1) Regarding everything but the last sentence, go away...big people are talking.

2) Regarding the last sentence, you're just flat wrong brother. I have no need for those depleted shares now. I will likely in the future. Even if I were to cash out today, I STILL would have made money based on what I've put in the market and what it is worth today. It's just been the last 14 months or so that it's been bad -- big deal. Not to me anyway -- I've been in way too long for it to be a big deal.

SKF up to 187.27 today, up from 119 a week ago.

Flagpole wrote: If the DOW does a slow climb and ends in 18 years at its high of 14,100, then I will be more than fine. It should do much better than that though.

4) When looking at my spreadsheet of returns from 1989 until the beginning of 2008 (that INCLUDES some down time from the end of 2007 to Jan. 2008 and also the down time in 2002), my rate of return is 11.6% annually.

Dow annualized rates of return:

Jan 1989 - Jan 2008: 9.3%

Jan 1989 - Today: 6.0%

Jan 1989 to 14100 on 2/19/27: 4.8%

Flagpole, what would you expect for the annualized rate of return for the Dow in the period 2/19/09 to 2/19/27?

a) less than 6%

b) between 6% and 9%

c) greater then 9%

yep, it's going right on up

Where the bottom Flagpole?

Listen to me guys, listen to me good...you aint seen nothin' yet.

This market is going to the 5,000's in the next 2 months. From there who the f*** knows.

Revived Creedence Clearwater wrote:

Where the bottom Flagpole?

Listen to me guys, listen to me good...you aint seen nothin' yet.

This market is going to the 5,000's in the next 2 months. From there who the f*** knows.

THAT would be COOL! You may be right even. Do note that I'm not predicting a bottom. A 5,000 DOW, A 4,000 DOW, a 3,000 DOW -- very awesome! Awesome for me anyway. For people who are retired or close to it with lots still in stocks, then that's not good for them. No matter how low it gets it will NOT be there forever, and the lower it goes, the less high it has to get for me to break even during this recession, and that's just great for me, because once I break even with this bad time, I'm doing more than fine.

Monty Fuller wrote:

Flagpole, what would you expect for the annualized rate of return for the Dow in the period 2/19/09 to 2/19/27?

a) less than 6%

b) between 6% and 9%

c) greater then 9%

Probably b). My spreadsheet used to just track 8% and 9% annual gains going forward, and then I added 7% and then just to get the whole gamut, I added columns all the way to 1%. Warren Buffett has said to expect 6-7% over the next 20 years -- that could be right -- sounds feasible to me. Jeremy Grantham of GMO has said that the next 5-7 years should produce market gains that are greater than the average. I think that's a very good possibility. If the next 7 years produce 12% gains annually, I'll probably put a whole lot more than I ever thought I would into bonds -- maybe even all of it, because at that point I will be set for retirement. Also, in 7 years I plan to have the house paid off, so it will finally be time for me to dabble in individual stocks. I will follow the Jim Cramer advice of no less than 5 stocks at any one time and each from a different sector of the market.

Flagpole wrote:

the lower it goes, the less high it has to get for me to break even during this recession, and that's just great for me, because once I break even with this bad time, I'm doing more than fine.

I could see a person doing well if they were taking the opposite of your previous advice, but you were all in at the top, betting the market would keep going higher forever.

In the meantime it's kept going down, down, down, and your investments are zilch. Now you hope they keep going down farther? I have to agree with the previous poster, that is the funniest shit that I've ever seen.

You've got to be putting us on, as no one could really be that stupid. But no, you are serious. The sad thing is that probably most Americans watch the same tv programs that you do, think the same way, and that's why the country's in shambles.

SKF up to 207.88

Dude, I didn't BUY all my shares when the DOW was at 14,100 -- in fact I bought NOTHING on that very day. The VAST majority of the stock I own was purchased between a 2,700 and 7,000 DOW. I also have NEVER said the DOW would keep going higher forever. Ups and downs -- that's how it's always been, and I've seen stock market drops before -- this one is the biggest that I've seen of course, but it will make the rebound all that much sweeter. How do you get that my investments are worth zilch? That's CRAZY talk. I've been investing for 20 years -- since the DOW was at 2,700. From 1989-1996 I put in 50% of our household income into mutual funds, and I've NEVER sold those shares off (once or twice a year adjustments only -- never taking the profit). Also, the previous poster you refer to didn't think my hoping the market would go down was funny. He thought my comment that I've not lost anything until I've sold was funny. He (and you if you agree with that) then finds humor in the truth. I am in WAY better position financially than the vast majority of Americans...I am debt free except for a small mortgage remaining on my house (and it has a very reasonable monthly rate I could still make even if my income were cut in half). The fact that the country is in shambles today is because people DON'T think like me. I didn't go into debt up to my eyeballs or buy a subprime loan. I'm one of the few responsible people out there who won't be helped by any of this stimulus. Also, the average 45 year old American has $25,000 invested for retirement. I invest almost that much each year, and I'm not 45 yet. If everyone thought like me they wouldn't be in debt, would have a decent start to their retirement, would be able to make it even if their income or purchasing power were cut in half (or more). Why shouldn't I enjoy an even lower DOW for a while? Just allows me to buy at a very good price.

Regardless, nobody has missed the bottom yet.

Flagpole wrote:

Do note that I'm not predicting a bottom. A 5,000 DOW, A 4,000 DOW, a 3,000 DOW -- very awesome! Awesome for me anyway.

Good, don't predict a bottom. Especially after naming this thread "Here's hoping you didn't miss the bottom of the market..."

We know how you work flagpole ... If you're pissed off with someone who's exposed your ignorance you call them brother, and when the market bombs you get excited - zero credibility. Stop giving people bad advice - oh and of course if you're not here to give advice - stop trying to tell everyone how great you think you are doing then. Keep it to yourself. I get the impression that you are encouraging people to invest in the share-market just to boost your own shares.

Russell Crowe wrote:

We know how you work flagpole ... If you're pissed off with someone who's exposed your ignorance you call them brother, and when the market bombs you get excited - zero credibility. Stop giving people bad advice - oh and of course if you're not here to give advice - stop trying to tell everyone how great you think you are doing then. Keep it to yourself. I get the impression that you are encouraging people to invest in the share-market just to boost your own shares.

Ha! Have you even read this thread? No where did I call a bottom to the market. I didn't even insinuate we had hit it, and in fact I said we'd likely drop further.

I'm not encouraging anyone to do anything. Putting money in the market when it is low (and even though it could and likely will go lower, this is still a low market by just about anyone's measurement) is a good idea. Do it or not. You can't really think I'm trying to boost my shares --- really? Most of the people who read here are too young and too penniless to invest in the market. Those who can manage 10% or so every pay check -- it's hardly enough to boost any of my holdings -- even if every Letsrun poster here did it.

Regarding how great I'm doing, I've never said I'm doing great -- only that I've continued to make money and that I'll be fine at retirement time, and I only mention that when someone tells me my holdings are "zilch" -- it's complete BS.

Finally, I don't get pissed off with what others say -- fire away. I couldn't care less. I just debate the wrong. Matters not if you agree with me or not. Injuring children or helpless people pisses me off -- short of that, not really -- certainly not someone's comment to me on a message board.