Socon thread?

well the last three times app has won, they have not come anywhere close to shutting out the top 5!!!!

2005

mayne UTC

van nort app

johnson FU

taylor UTC

puett WC

2006

mitchell app

morgan FU

harden DAV

clark UTC

wyatt UNCG

2007

deal APP

morgan FU

mentz UTC

berry UTC

desta APP

i think it is prety obvious that the other teams NO.1 guy is better than app;s 2/3/4/5 guys. that beuing said its app's 3/4/5 guys that win it for them.

anyone who thinks that morgan will not be 1st or 2nd is stupid, morgan is tough as nails and is the only distance guy to qualify for NCAA regions last year. Not deal or mentz, but pat, so he is the man.

also if berry were to run, would he not also get better or can only app guys improve?

Morgan is a great runner; there is no doubt about that. I do feel there are a difference between the 1500 and the 8k. Morgan is capable of winning but the fact that he hit a regional qualifying mark in the 1500 does not make him my first choice for the individual title. And I know "in the genes" did not claim victory but it did seem to be implied.

I am not sure how great Chat is this year. I agree that this is a deep year, and with that said, if Berry does not run, then it will be a wrap for them because they dont seem to have #5 runner with Berry so with out him that means....???? Their might be something I don’t know about them that others do but the results from Great American were not that impressive (even with Berry).

Excluding App, I think Elon has the top spot for the remaining teams. They are the deepest team in the conference (remember App is being excluded in this paragraph) and they have shown up to every race thus far. Teams like Davidson, Furman, UNCG, and Chat all have too many what ifs right now. No one knows if Tom or Thad are running from Davidson, Alex from Furman is not running like he did in outdoor (plus the freshman thing), UNCG... well just read the wall posts... a ton of potential but they have not been showing many signs of life this season, and no one knows who is even on Chat's roster.

Elon deserves more credit. They don’t seem to have a standout runner but they might put one in the top ten. Until the screw up I think they are the team to beat...

All of the teams mentioned earlier are VERY capable of taking 2nd or giving App a good run, but they just have not shown that level of competition at this point in the season.

I know I have said this in previous posts, but the meet at App should be a great preview for what to expect. Some teams may not run all out because of its proximity to conference but it will bring together most of the teams that have questionable statuses. It will be good to see Elon run against App and the other NC teams to see how much their depth will actually help them. I personally want to see if Davidson finally runs there A-team. This is also a chance for UNCG to live up to the hype. Rutz + Josh + Aj + two sub 26 freshman could be a serious team, but lets see what happens. This might just be me, but I also want to see how Hammond races against the guys from App. I have been on here saying he is the real thing all season but until he races some more guys from the Socon (was the first Socon finisher at Louisville)it is all just speculation. Comparing times is fun but no two xc courses are equal, so this will give a real peak at what times these teams are really capable of.

Sorry I just keep babbling on. I have a desk job and I don’t have enough work to fill the day. I know its pretty lame. As always, good luck to everyone in the next few weeks.

Dylan, I appreciate your comments. At least it keeps the conversation going. I agree that Elon has been the most consistent team other than App, but they will suffer at SoCon due to their lack of a low stick. UTC, Furman, Davidson, Samford, and Western all should have someone in the top 10, if not multiple guys for UTC and Davidson.

Rest assured, Berry will race for UTC at conference, and Davidson will race Divinnie, Sieracki, Harden, and Hoyt, even if some of them don't show up at App. UTC's "what if" is how much their 5th man can improve.

I think Hammond is for real this year. I don't expect him to win, but he could be top 5 and should be disappointed if he's not top 10. I predict Pat Morgan finishes 2nd to complete his trifecta of 2nd place SoCon XC finishes. He is tough as nails, but it always seems like someone is able to get him in XC.

I'm just excited to be mentioned on the forum for once. Makes me feel rather special.

yeah I just don't see greensboro's "immense talent" showing itself anytime soon....their 2 freshmen are pretty good for freshmen and will put up a fight for freshman of the year, but they are also UNCG's top guys. why is that?

until further notice, all mention of uncg's talent and ability should just stop.

We all know that UTC are a bunch of choke-heads. Look at the past 3 conference races. This year will be no different.

Well thanks. I am glad that I am appreciated. You know they say if you can reach just one person.... hahaha. I agree with the UNCG comment... to an extent. I hope you dont think I was bragging about there "immense talent" because my statement was more along the lines of... ok you have a team with 4 former all conference athletes (not all on grass of course), if you cant run well this week then something is seriously wrong. And I still dont think Josh would redshirt the year after his breakout season, just to come back two years later and run like this. But your comment is fair in that, I may be playing favorites right now but by the way they are currently running, I think WCU could beat them.

I know Chat likes to play games with their roster and then surprise everyone come conference but does anyone know that Berry is actually running? Clark did something similar last season but my understanding is that there was much more to his situation then most people know about. Chat is also know for sending a full team to a cross country meet and not having them all cross the finish line or not updating their online xc roster each year to hide new talent. Even with all that said, I honestly think Berry would be racing in a UTC shirt by now if he was going to compete at conference. I could be wrong... chances are that I am, but I am just throwing that out there.

Socon will be here soon and on that day none of the predictions or previous races and times will mean anything. Once again, good luck to everyone racing this weekend. I look forward to see everyone’s results so we can have another intriguing conversation. Keep it gangster, (or whatever the kids are saying these days)

Dylan

its not that chat purposely does not update the roster, our media people suck ass

Alex Plasencia is hot. That is all.

According to the UTC website, they are expecting Berry to be available for the conference on Nov. 1. If Berry is able to run, then UTC will have 2 of the top 5 runners at the race as well as a solid 3-5. If we look at this from an unbiased perspective UTC has the best chance for an upset.

After this past weekend, App still looks very good, Elon should contend for at least 2nd, and Davidson had an off week I guess. Still no word on Divinnie, but they might be saving him for conference.

Women's race is going to be between Samford, Furman, and UTC. Anyone of those teams could win. Gaffney is very good, but they're is not enough behind her to contend. Davidson has been very disappointing except for Sanker. I can't imagine them not running better at conference.

Men's Indiv. Contenders

Mitchell, Beam, Berry, Kirwa, Morgan

Women's Indiv. Contenders

Sanker, Gaffney, Lordi, Tomory, Neal, Gietema

Who will finish last in the conference? Will Wofford finish last again? Will the Citadel hit a new low?

pre season the mocs looked pretty weak, but this weekends results show that they should be a solid 2nd again. berry ran 15:30 last year and got 4th at conference, so i believe both kirwa and berry will be up there for a win.

it is gonna be a great race, with the app guys bean and morgan for sure.

So, So, the App meet was not as exciting as I had hoped it would be. Not much really happened that was big news but it did give me a small idea of what to expect come Socon.

App looked good for Socon but I had hoped they would put up more of a fight against UNC and Duke, but they still ran fine. They put six under 26 min and one at 26:06. Meyer from App did not seem to have a very good day at all.

The rest of the Socon look sub-par but the one standout, for the 5th week in a row was Elon. Myers ran 25:50 on what seemed to tuff course. Elon’s times were not great but who’s were? They have shown up week in and week out and have still not faltered once.

Davidson did not run Divinnie again but Sieracki ran 26:13 and could be a big help to them in two weeks. Hoyt ran well and should be a contender for all conference accolades. He has been very consistent throughout the season and I don’t expect him to falter in the last week.

UNCG almost beat Davidson but with a healthy Divinie Davidson would have likely cut their score in almost half. UNCG's 5th man was within 26 seconds of their first, which is a good sign for the last race before conference. I did not see the race but their team seemed to be very packed up and I def would not count them out.

Western..... well they beat Wofford. Weaver ran a good race. He was the second or third freshman from the Socon to finish.

Chat ran well this weekend but I don’t know what to expect at Socon. This is a good year for the Socon and although they ran good times on their home course they finished 3rd. The two teams that beat them are good teams but they are not exactly national powerhouses. I am also still skeptical about Berry. Gautier claimed he would race on Nov 1st, but why has he not worn a Chatt shirt all year? Clarke was signed up to run the 5k at outdoor this past season and did not even show up to the meet. The same thing happened with Moore.

Just based on the Socon rankings this is how the meet would turn out... I now this is not how it will actually turn out:

1) APP- 26

2) Samford- 57

3) Davidson- 92

4) Elon- 107

5) UNCG- 135

6) WCU- 158

7) Chatt- 185

8) Furman- 186

The rankings do not include Berry and they do include Divinnie. Of course as everyone knows, no two XC courses are the same. Every team’s website that attended Auburn said that the men’s course was extremely short and they were not counting the performance towards any school records. This leads me to believe Samford will not be second but I will still give Bean credit towards an all conference performance.

If everyone one runs (including Berry and Divinnie) I think the actual results will be more like this:

1) App- For obvious reasons

2) Elon- Big performance from Myers may have been their missing link to claim second. They have not ran on a fast course like Paul Short, Auburn or Louisville and they have beat Davidson every time they have raced this year. IT would be huge for their program if they can pull this off.

3) Davidson- If their top three run all run to their ability, I think they have as good of a top three as App. But App has a 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.... you get the idea. I have not seen them run their A-team yet but I would believe they are quite capable of beating Elon.

4) Chatt?- I am not sold on Berry's return but If her does I would assume he would be top 3. They do not have enough depth to be top three but there 1-2-3 runners should space them out from the the teams ranked under them.

5) UNCG- They have been pack running all season. If you don’t believe me look at the results. Not once has there 1-5 been anywhere near a minute apart. They tend to run their best race of the season at Socon. I think they can be higher if they are training to peak at Socon like I believe they are. If they are running their best right now and I am assuming too much, then they could drop a spot or two.

6) Furman- Morgan top 5 fo sho, maybe even 1st. My only problem is there 2nd man is ranked 41 in the Socon. They ran well at their home meet which everyone knows is a very tuff course. They always seem to pull it off at the end of the season but I am not sure if it will happen this year.

7) Samford- I just don’t know if they have it. Bean I will count as a contender but he finished 1:09 in front of their 2nd runner at Auburn and they got beat by Furman two weeks ago. I just don’t see to much coming from them.

8) Western- Ran like booboo this weekend. Hammond looked like shyte, weaver looked good but the rest of the team looked ruff as well. There distance team has the habit of falling apart at the end of the season and it looks like it might happen again. I expect Hammond to be all Socon though and I don’t see any other teams beating them.

9) Wofford!!!!!!- They looked like crap at App but so did everyone. They have a few decent runners and the good news is C of C and the Citadel don’t have a front runner to throw them off. I dont know if they will get 9th but I dont think they will get 11th.

10) Citadel- They will probably be 9th but they have sure fallen along way from 2 years ago.

11) C of C- Have they ran this year? All of their guys seem to be ranked right next to wofford guys... this is the year!

All Socon Picks in order (assuming everyone runs)

1) Mitchell APP- He has ran under 25 min 3 races in a row now and has not been beat by anyone i the Socon all season

2) Desta APP- Has the fastest time in the Socon (real time) and I am still thinking about his 5k 10k performance from outdoor

3/4) Berry UTC/ Morgan FUR- I don’t know if Berry is running and Morgan always runs well at Socon. These guys can both be top two but I don’t think Mitchell will be touched.

5) Bean SAM- Fastest time on paper. He beat Morgan at Furman but I dont know enough about the guy and Morgan and Berry are both show stoppers.

6) Divinie DAV- I dont know if he will run but he beat out most the app guys and Win and he ran neck and neck with Morgan in SC.

7) Houser APP- Always runs tuff. He was freshman of the year two years ago and 11th place last year but 8th on Apps squad. Solid runner with great foot speed if he is near the top 10 he should move up in the last 800m.

8) Meyer APP- Has the 3rd fastest time in the Socon but he fell apart at home. I am not sure if he is healthy or just a bad race. Either way top 10.

9) Kirwa UTC- Has not ran against other guys from App but he has ran decent times. He ran 15:12 this weekend but App has about 10 guys that can do that.

10) Hammond WCU/ Hoyt DAV- Hammond beat Hoyt at Louisville, Hoyt stomped Hammond at App. Both guys are solid favs for top 10.

Honorable mention:

O'Keefe APP

Richardson ELON

Harden DAV

Myers ELON

Soderman APP

Freshman of the year race:

Soderman APP

Thompson UNCG

Schefer ELON

Coore UNCG

Weaver WCU

Once again these are all just predictions. You are all welcome to refute my arguments. I am just trying to state the obvious and stir up some conversation. Does anyone know if there is a way to watch the meet online? I am currently living in the United Kingdom and I would like to watch the race if it is possible. So if anyone is not running and wants to record it I would be a supporter of posting it online. Have a great two weeks fellas. As always Good Luck!

holy shyt! sorry, i did not know i was writing so much back there... my bad

CofC was at app this weekend and averaged about 1:25 faster than wofford, placing all 7 before wofford's #2 man. not quite sure how wofford is going to pull out anything other than DFL at conference

C of C has also beat the Citadel earlier this year. The Socon rankings are scewed from Auburn and Louisville. If you take out all the non-socon runners from the App St. meet, it would be App, Elon, Dav, UNCG, WCU, C of C, Woff.

did Furman run this weekend?

App will win, Wofford will be DFL and everything else is up for grabs.

Furman ran the 6K at Winthrop and won without much competition. Alex P. was finally close to his old form, running #2 for them.

UTC and Elon look good. Furman and Davidson haven't had the consistency of Elon, but Furman has a history of peaking well and Davidson's top 4 have all been all-conference before. With App, those should be your top 5 teams. I think UNCG and Samford are duking it out for 6-7, and then Western should grab 8th. C of C in 9th, then Citadel, and of course Wofford last but more respectable than ever.

I totally disagree with the person who left Davidson out of the women's contenders list. They laid an egg at App (as did their men), but I think they will rebound well. Jen always pulls the most ridiculous stuff out of her $#% at SoCons.