cmon wrote:
It's a bit absurd to put Sigl above the rest of the competition when he lost in a close battle to Kaul in the indoor 5k. Sigl and Kosgei were dominant at nationals in XC, and Sigl and Kaul put a fair gap on the competition at indoors, but things can change a fair amount between seasons. Sub-30 in the 10k by Abdallah and Ramsey-North shows they are very fit, and could be ready to take on Sigl or Kaul (or Kosgei if he runs it) in the 10k. Kaul's 30:30 at a more competitive Stanford race is pretty mediocre on the other hand, showing some vulnerability there, but also just showing how things can change between seasons (or people can just have bad races).
In a few weeks, we'll probably have a better sense of where guys are at, as people are just starting to lay down some fast times. Then we'll be able to tell better whether Sigl or Kosgei or anyone else is really above the competition (which I doubt they are).
Once again, I disagree. It is not absurd to say that Sigl and Kosgei, who are multiple time national champions, are a step ahead of Hany, Ramsey-North, and the rest. If Vegas handicapped outdoor nationals, there would be a huge drop-off after Sigl and Kosgei (and perhaps Kaul). Until Hany, Ian, or someone else wins a national title, it is definitely not "absurd" to put the ones who have won multiple titles a step above the field. Saying someone is a "step above" doesn't rule out the possibility they can be beaten. That is why we run the races.