D3 XC Individual Contenders

the course is faily simple for the first 1-2 miles with some very slight rolling hills. It is a very good spectator friendly course where people can be lined up on each side of you for a good portion of the race. There are two pretty good size hills you have to run up in towards the back of the course which is near the 3 quarter mark, then the last one is right before the finish and when you get to the top of that you have about 200 meters to kick. So its kind of exciting to see if that last hill takes anything out of the legs of the runners. Should be an interesting finish. If its cold out the course should be fairly hard and the surface should be fairly fast, i would say your looking at 24:50 or so for the win.

with the way the weather is now up here, expect snow on the course and a cold day in november around i'd say temperatures might be around 29 or so that day. Sorry kosegi, im calling sigl for the win.

I think Abdallah is a question mark. He might very well not finish #1 on his own team...though I could also see him as a potential champion!

Not doubting his talent and ability, but Ramadan has to have an effect.

A look at the calendar would show Ramadan starting this week and ending much earlier in the season than the last few years, which would help Abdallah and any other practicers of the faith.

These are my picks for National Contenders: This means, they have a legitimate shot to win. There are a number of runners who will finish in the top ten, even the top 5, who are not mentioned in this list. And, in the same way, one - if not more - of these five may fail to even finish at an All-American status. I would be shocked if anyone, outside of these five, were to win the XC title.

1. Tyler Sigl – UW Plateville: Top 15 in XC for the past 3 years. Runs for the win every time. Won the 10k and runner up to Leer in the 5k. Used to Cold Weather.

2. Peter Kosgei -Hamilton : He’s Kenyan. He’s 24. He rocked a strong field at Nat’s with an 8:55. And he’s looking good in XC so far.

3. Hany Abdallah – NYU: He ran a 14:10. Broken 14:15 Twice.

4. Julian Boggs – Colorado College: Top returner from Cross.

5. Chris Erichsen – St. John’s: 9:01 Steeple. Indoor 5k Champ. Front pack of the Outdoor 5k. Familiar Course.

I have no affiliation to any of these runners or their teams. This is just the way I see it. Fire away...

There seems to be a potential trend brewing in D3 Running over the past few years. And it is this -

Whoever is the top freshman in his first season, ends up winning the National Title his Senior Year.

in 2002 Holtschulte was the top Freshman at Nats. In 2005, his Senior Year, he won.

in 2003 Yuot was the top Freshman at Nats. In 2006, his Senior Year, he won.

in 2004 Sigl was the top Freshman at Nats. In 2007, his senior year, he is (in my opinon) the favorite to win.

in 2005 Christiansen was the top freshman at Nats. In 2008, his senior year, he may pull out an XC victory.

Just a thought. Would be cool to see that trend going.

i strongly agree with these predictions...nice thinking

unless erichsen has become a different runner he has not performed all that well in the past two national meets. It could be the fact that both courses were sloppy (obviously last years was worse) but maybe he's just a lot better on the track than on an xc course. i guess it'll be interesting to see what he can pull off this season

I wouldnt go with erichsen as a lock. There are a lot of people who can perform well in track and just arent as good in cross country. He hasnt really proven that he is as good in xc as an track. You cant limit it to 5 because there are more than 5 that can win it

Jed Christiansen- Finished 5th last year (how is he not on your list)

Jon Phillips- 12th last year ahead of abdallah

Shamus Nally- 9th last year

What makes you so sure that Kosgei cannot run in the cold. Hamilton is located in the snow belt of New York. They average close to 100 inches of snow each Winter and the temps are as cold as they get in Minn. The majority of his base work for outdoors took place in the cold of Central NY.

most east africans tend to crumble in the cold, maybe kosgei will be different. bairu is of east african decent but handled the cold pretty well..most likely from living in Canada and training in Wisconsin

Since NYU is going to win the whole thing, you've got to consider their top runner right now, Calvin Lee.

I wouldnt go with erichsen as a lock. There are a lot of people who can perform well in track and just arent as good in cross country. He hasnt really proven that he is as good in xc as an track. You cant limit it to 5 because there are more than 5 that can win it

Jed Christiansen- Finished 5th last year (how is he not on your list)

Jon Phillips- 12th last year ahead of abdallah

Shamus Nally- 9th last year[/quote]

I considered putting each of the three runners who you mentioned on my list of legitimate champions, but there are a few reasons why I left each of them out. It was not as if I failed to notice these guys.

Christiansen is a remarkable talent. But he is young. He has bombed twice on the track at Nationals. A tad too inconsistent. I think he'll repeat in the top ten. But I do not see this guy pulling away from the National Field to beat everyone. Alot of people, yes. But not everyone. His 5th place finish was awesome, but I think, due to the fact that he is a gutsy, rather than fluid runner, the conditions assisted his style quite a bit.

Nally is solid, but also young. And he too is inconsistent. Again. Top ten, but not a winner.

Phillips was a tough one to leave out. He very well may be NYU's front guy. Even ahead of Abdallah. And he ran a great indoor 5k. This was the hardest selection. The DNF in the 5k leaves me hesitant.

Erichson, by no means, is a lock. But I do think he has national caliber talent. If I were to bet, I would say it more likely for Christiansen, Nally, and Phillips to finish ahead of Erichsen. However, I think Erichsen, on a great day, could win the whole thing - while the other three can not.

Dozzi is at a d1 grad school in Buffalo...he has no eligibility in xc...but he does have one year of indoor left.

Gets as cold as MN? Haha. I don't think so. Good try though. And D3 Nats, thanks for recognizing Erichsen as a legit contender, but he finished 4th in the indoor 5k, he wasn't the champion.

How cold is an average Minnesotan February day would you say? No trying to be a smartass, just curious.

scacer wrote:

in last years national results dozzi was listed as a senior. Is he back this year?

god, I wish. no, for some reason my ex-teammates have an odd fascination with putting my name in places it doesn't belong (I guess the Irish variant is kind of hard to resist).

P.S. - to "family friend" (?): because of some D1 bullshit I'm apparently not allowed to use my indoor eligibility...that being said, I'm now a volunteer assistant coach and will be competing unattached at (hopefully) many of the meets UB goes to(starting this weekend).

P.P.S. - my ultra-biased vote for this thread obviously goes to place.

Obviously it depends on what part of Minnesota you're talking about. Northfield is in the south/southeast part of Minnesota, about a half hour south of the Twin Cities. Its average November high is 41 degrees; its average low is 23. The average high for Northfield in January, its coldest month, is 22; the average low is 1. Go to a place like Bemidji, MN, which is north central part of the state, the average high there in January, its coldest month, is 16; the average low is -3. Then you go to way northern Minnesota, such as Roseau, which is about 5 miles from the border with Canada, and the average high in January there is 9; the average low is -11.

Whoever Lasch tripped last year will surely win this year. I love pop tarts.