Ritz and the US 10K record

Tale of the Tables wrote:

I'm sure that all of this is just merely coincidence.

Yes it is.

Tables don't predict (or in this case backtest) anything.

Anyone who's been around the sport knows what 8:11 is worth. Ritzenhein's 2 mile is by far his best effort yet. The IAAF tables are right on the mark.

Do that with Abdi now (use his 10K).

Abdi can run a sub-3:50 mile, huh?

OK, now Todd Williams.

Also a sub-3:50?

Alright, how about Bekele?

His 12:37 equals a 3:38 mile. Possible? Answer: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO F-ing way!!!

Why are you guys doubting the IAAF tables?

we are estimating up with ritz, not down like your examples. if ritz can run 8:11, i guarantee he'll be in the 27:10, 13:10 range.

What is Meb Keflezighi's (Current AR in the 10,000M) personal best over 2 Miles? Ritz definitely has a chance.

The point of my post was to show how stupid the McMillan calculator is.

I agree with your predictions (maybe faster in the 5K though - low 13:00s is not out of the question).

The IAAF tables are based on past performances and guess what? There aren't that many past 2-mile performances compared to the 3k, 5k or 10k. The tables are skewed in favor for slower 2-mile times.

8:11.7 is 7:39.3 pace for 3,000m give him maybe 3 seconds (and that's a lot for only ~218 meters) to step down to the 3k and you have a 7:36 3k. Maybe he can run 13:01 but you can't base that absolutely off this performance alone. As of now 8:11/7:36 = 13:10ish at best.

Are you retarded? Use the damn tables with sense, would you take a sprinter and measure his 5k time? Hell no. Middle distances have different physiological needs. No comparison.

3k to 5k on the other hand are sensible. The IAAF tables are for scoring ONLY. Period.

I'm happy to be on the side of malmo and MillerLite in this debate. Forget about McMillian, and forget about Jack's VDOT tables (which, by the way, suggest that K. Bekele should be running under 7:15 for 3K, and suggest that there are a bunch of guys who should be running 2:02 marathons). This was an outstanding result for Ritz. If he can avoid injury, this year is looking very promising for him.

666 wrote:

8:11.7 is 7:39.3 pace for 3,000m

It's 7:38.3 pace for 3000, and Ritzenhein died miserably over the last half lap. I'd guess he was under 7:37 at 3000.

malmo wrote:

666 wrote:

8:11.7 is 7:39.3 pace for 3,000m

It's 7:38.3 pace for 3000, and Ritzenhein died miserably over the last half lap. I'd guess he was under 7:37 at 3000.

666 sucks at math.

Come on... Can we just forget about the tables for a second and realize this is well below Ritz's range. You have got to believe he can run at least under 27:20 this summer. 5k? He should be below 13:10. Get him in the right race for either distance and he will better those marks.

I'd hate to answer for malmo here, a former US record-holder, but.....

Have you no concept of an individual athlete's strengths and how they relate to any tables? Look, an 'equivalent performance' is an equivalent performance. THAT'S ALL. It doesn't mean that any given athlete can run all the equivalent performances across the board. In fact, as I said in my initial post about the IAAF tables (please read it, for your own sake), an athlete usually lacks in one end or the other (speed or endurance). Ritz is a strength guy - not speed - so he's gonna perform better than the performances on the endurance side and worse on the speed side. BEFORE YOUR SPEW SOME GARBAGE ABOUT HIS PRs: Ritz hasn't really performed to his max at 5K and above in the last couple years.

Please lord, just let him stay healthy.....

Yeah, you're right; I mistook the 8 for a 9. Anyway, if he was capable of faster he wouldn't have died.

Right, and you suck at seeing the obvious. I also had the tenth at .3, it was a typo. Grow up. F*** this, I hate track. Haha.

Honestly, I see what you're saying. Ritz does better at longer distances. I get it. What made no sense to me was how people were drawing conclusions off of a chart that was meant for scoring.

Back to the original subject, I have to say that I believe Ritz can get the 10000 AR. He might even be in shape to do it right now.

His last 2 races indicate that he is fitter than ever, which is quite amazing considering he had a stress reaction scare not too long ago, but then again, Ritz always seems to come back stronger than ever when he gets hurt.

Go back two years ago when Webb broke 2 mile AR and Ritz was a solid 11 seconds back. I would've never guessed that he'd run almost the same time as Webb one day. This is really an amazing breakthrough for him.

Alright cool.

If any table were to be used for estimating though, the IAAF table is the one that should get the nod over any other. The IAAF table, along with knowledge of the athlete's strengths and weaknesses, should yield an accurate prediction.

Webber Grill wrote:

Back to the original subject, I have to say that I believe Ritz can get the 10000 AR. He might even be in shape to do it right now.

His last 2 races indicate that he is fitter than ever, which is quite amazing considering he had a stress reaction scare not too long ago, but then again, Ritz always seems to come back stronger than ever when he gets hurt.

Go back two years ago when Webb broke 2 mile AR and Ritz was a solid 11 seconds back. I would've never guessed that he'd run almost the same time as Webb one day. This is really an amazing breakthrough for him.

Although Ryan Hall and Matt Tegenkamp will probably break it first.