You want find a single one. Not one. The only tech companies in the Dow are AAPL, Cisco, IBM, MSFT and Intel. The rest of the stocks are fairly conservative. Joe Blow's portfolio is likely to have more tech than the Dow.
Look at how the Nasdaq did in 2022 and 2023 and the Dow in 2022 and 2023.
Dow
2022 - Down 8.8%
2023 - Up 13%
Nasdaq
2022 - Down 33%
2023 - Up 43%
Look at how much more volatile the Nasdaq than the Dow. A mutual fund with more tech stocks can't be expected to beat the Dow on bad years when it will have much bigger losses though it will clobber the Dow on good years. A mutual fund just can't do both.
If you want to add in the S & P,
It lost 19% in 2022
and was up 24% in 2023.
Again, the losses for the S & P in 2022 are more severe than the Dow and the gain in 2023 was much greater than the Dow.
One more thing, the Nasdaq was up 85% in 1999. 85%!!
someone should go find 5-10 core mutual funds with great consistent records and see if any of them beat the Dow 32 of 35 years.
I expect with very high confidence that nobody will find a single one that did as well as Flagpole has claimed. I await the search results with much curiosity and anticipation.
I’d suggest the onus be on FP to conduct the search since he is the only one who believes his fantastic claim.
Reread his last post. His new story is that his out performance was due in large part to an individual stock that he "had to own".
This post was edited 16 seconds after it was posted.
I expect with very high confidence that nobody will find a single one that did as well as Flagpole has claimed. I await the search results with much curiosity and anticipation.
I’d suggest the onus be on FP to conduct the search since he is the only one who believes his fantastic claim.
Reread his last post. His new story is that his out performance was due in large part to an individual stock that he "had to own".
Yes, this is the crux of it. I got that. And I got it at soon as he said it, so I went and plugged in a bunch of stocks that I knew were the high fliers from that era, about the late 70's, 1980s, etc., and those were stocks like IBM, ATT, GE, KO, HD, Intel, etc.
Guess what (?)
They all have quite a few years when they underperformed the DJIA. Sure, they were ahead overall, but that is not what he said - he is ahead of the DJIA however slightly almost every single year, and I just couldn't find a stock that did that among the high fliers of that age.
That is why I asked him what the company was.
This post was edited 10 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
checked more high flier companies
If anyone else on this thread believes flagpole’s malarkey maybe they can help him find the unicorn mutual funds that beat the DOW as often as he imagines he has
I have effectively explained how that was...high percentage of a very good performing individual stock that I had to own (that I didn't buy) for several years and then some very lucky moves early on. My stuff is so solidly diverse now that that large winning percentage likely won't occur. It's really NOT as rare as you think though. It's just a line that you are either above or below against an arbitrary index. It's really how well you do over time that matters.
How is Flagpole doing against the Dow so far in 2024?:
Dow: UP 1.95%
Flagpole: UP 1.66%
Would you care to share what that individual stock was?
No. It was a single stock at a time but from two different companies I worked for that matched 401k contributions only in company stock. Not really interested in mentioning companies I've worked for. Fortunately I didn't have that situation again, but also fortunately, the stock from both of those companies did really well. Neither of those two companies exist anymore as they were acquired by other larger companies.
Would you care to share what that individual stock was?
No. It was a single stock at a time but from two different companies I worked for that matched 401k contributions only in company stock. Not really interested in mentioning companies I've worked for. Fortunately I didn't have that situation again, but also fortunately, the stock from both of those companies did really well. Neither of those two companies exist anymore as they were acquired by other larger companies.
Ok, and I understand how you might not want to disclose that, so I respect your decision.
But do understand that even though the companies don't exist anymore, I believe it is capable of tracking their market performance from those years.
And also understand that I used the high fliers as an example, and I found that even well performing stocks have quite a few years when they return less than the DJIA.
I have effectively explained how that [beating the DOW 35 out of 32 years] was...high percentage of a very good performing individual stock that I had to own (that I didn't buy) for several years and then some very lucky moves early on. My stuff is so solidly diverse now that that large winning percentage likely won't occur. It's really NOT as rare as you think though.
In fact it's much, much more rare than you seem to think.
someone should go find 5-10 core mutual funds with great consistent records and see if any of them beat the Dow 32 of 35 years.
I expect with very high confidence that nobody will find a single one that did as well as Flagpole has claimed. I await the search results with much curiosity and anticipation.
I’d suggest the onus be on FP to conduct the search since he is the only one who believes his fantastic claim.
Well, that wouldn't matter since I have never owned just a single mutual fund. Silly.
You want find a single one. Not one. The only tech companies in the Dow are AAPL, Cisco, IBM, MSFT and Intel. The rest of the stocks are fairly conservative. Joe Blow's portfolio is likely to have more tech than the Dow.
Look at how the Nasdaq did in 2022 and 2023 and the Dow in 2022 and 2023.
Dow
2022 - Down 8.8%
2023 - Up 13%
Nasdaq
2022 - Down 33%
2023 - Up 43%
Look at how much more volatile the Nasdaq than the Dow. A mutual fund with more tech stocks can't be expected to beat the Dow on bad years when it will have much bigger losses though it will clobber the Dow on good years. A mutual fund just can't do both.
If you want to add in the S & P,
It lost 19% in 2022
and was up 24% in 2023.
Again, the losses for the S & P in 2022 are more severe than the Dow and the gain in 2023 was much greater than the Dow.
Well, I lost to the Dow in 2022 and beat the Dow in 2023. And, so far in 2024, I am losing to the Dow. Meh. You must have a boring life.
No. It was a single stock at a time but from two different companies I worked for that matched 401k contributions only in company stock. Not really interested in mentioning companies I've worked for. Fortunately I didn't have that situation again, but also fortunately, the stock from both of those companies did really well. Neither of those two companies exist anymore as they were acquired by other larger companies.
Ok, and I understand how you might not want to disclose that, so I respect your decision.
But do understand that even though the companies don't exist anymore, I believe it is capable of tracking their market performance from those years.
And also understand that I used the high fliers as an example, and I found that even well performing stocks have quite a few years when they return less than the DJIA.
I'm aware their performance could be looked up and tracked. Not why I refuse to tell you what they are.
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After reading this earlier, I can see why NVDA's 2/23 weekly options have an implied volatility of 100% (NVDA reports 2/22). Historic volatility is 31.25%
There is no credible combination of mutual funds, with or without individual stocks, that would have performed as well as you've claimed.
Face it FP, nobody in this thread believes your fantastic story.
That's my take away as well.
It's reasonable to see how a portfolio might beat an index like the DJIA by a very large amount over a long period of time (say 50 years), but it becomes statistically very rare that it would have done so every single year over that timeframe. That is the critical difference here in a nutshell.
Many investors might assume that since they have so resoundingly outperformed the DJIA over the duration of their investing career, it must have done it most every single year along the way. But in fact, the chance that it had is extremely unlikely.
Perhaps FP did such a back-of-the- envelope approximation, but if so, it would be helpful to know, since this is a common occurrence.
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