Down goes the Dow

Sally, true enough.

And you mention Buffet buying Apple in 2016. I know someone who bought it back in the early 2000s with an avg. share price of the holding under $7 per share. And get this - it's in a Roth (read: no capital gains) and they still have it .

This one is amusing...end of October, stocks had been falling for many weeks. Oppenheimer had a end of year price target of 4900. But the market had fallen. So Oppenheimer drops its price target to 4400. This was basically on the day of the bottom. Only to see the market rip right back up to Oppenheimer's previous target. Classic.

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
OPPIE: "We are revising our year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4400 from 4900 to reflect the S&P 500’s three-month sell off .. We view the three-month corrective occurrence experienced by stocks since August as likely near an end." [Stoltzfus] $SPX
10:00 AM · Oct 30, 2023
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29.7K
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DGTD Prediction Resolution!

This was on 12/7/23

I think it is a fail, but close...looks to me that the Dow hit an all-time high but not the SP500 or NASD. I could be wrong and it might depend on 'all time high' or 'all time closing high'

Yeah, Agip - it was close. I believe all time closing high is 4,796 and it hit 4,788 on 12/29/23.

“One of the most obvious features of divergent market action during 2023 was the concentration of speculation in a handful of glamour tech stocks (the “Magnificent Seven,” comprised of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and NVIDIA). Strikingly, the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 Index outpaced the equal-weighted S&P 500 by more than 12.4% in 2023. Same stocks, just different weighting. This has easily been the primary headwind for hedged equity strategies in the past year.

This sort of divergence is also a regular feature of extreme market peaks. It’s easy to forget that bubbles typically end with frenzies in “blue chips” or “performance stocks.” At moments like the present, it’s important that investors remember. As Forbes observed after the “Nifty Fifty” collapsed in 1973-74, “The delusion was that these companies were so good that it didn’t matter what you paid for them; their inexorable growth would bail you out.”

—John Hussman, January 2024 Market Commentary

Igy - Hussman Strategic is down 12% when the NASDAQ is up 44% for the year. Do you really think anyone here is waiting on pins and needles for whatever nonsense John Hussman spews? Come on dude!

It was so close, I give him credit for a correct call. It's basically there, and that was a big call and a big move. Nicely done.

One year ago today. S&P up about 24% in 2023.

For a much more balanced and unbiased explanation of the differences between cap. weighted and equal weighted S&P 500, I found the following article. It is very good at explaining when each does well and why. Hussman is just whoring his goods with no thought to context.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/when-does-equal-weight-outperform

Gente wrote:

Anyone play TAG these last 2 years?
TUR; ARGT; GREK

heh maybe 10 years ago I fell under the sway of an analyst who backtested beat up countries, ranked them by CAPE PE ratios and said 'buy the cheapest countries.' I did. I promptly lost something like 30% in a bunch of garbage markets like Greece and Argentina.

Even now, Greece is down 4% per year for 10 years. Although Argentina is up 11%/year for 10 years.

But I swore off the dumpster diving. I'm not enough of a contrarian to hang with them through the bad times.

Ticker GVAL follows that kind of super-cheap international buying strategy. Hasn't done very well.

I think we should have learned by now not to let valuations catch our eyes too much.

And today: US Debt Hits A Record $34.001 Trillion.

US Interest expense ~$1.1 trillion as of today. That's $250BN more than the Defense Budget; $250BN more than spending on Medicare, $200BN more than spending on health, and will surpass the $1.35 trillion spending on Social Security this year, becoming the single biggest outlay.

$34.001 TRILLION
3 months after we hit $33 trillion
2 years after we hit $30 trillion
4 years after we hit $24 trillion

Yes, living in debt is awful.

Did you know that a recent poll shows that 62% of Americans report they are living pay check to pay check?

That's why Biden's Build Back Better agenda is so important to creating good paying jobs, helping small businesses, and boosting the economy especially for those in need.

I'm sure you can understand how we must make this a priority, Igy.

No word from Flagpole in a while. I wonder if he’s trying to find a credible assortment of diversified funds that could have beat SP500 like he’s claimed. That will be very, very hard to do, at least without being overweight technology, which he has repeatedly denied. Tech pulled the market along upward this year. Other than tech, only communications and consumer discretionary beat the index in 2023, and all other market sectors underperformed relative to the broader index. It would have to be a pretty magical (imaginary) portfolio that beat SP500 last year as well as having beat the DOW 35 out of the past 32 years as he brags. I’m reiterating my BS call.

Flagpole, put up or shut up.

Very bad call from Doug Kass.

Seabreeze Partners
@SeabreezeLP
Our 2023 outlook continues to reflect a 3700-4100 range on the S&P. However, we hold a more negative outlook in the long term, foreseeing prolonged sluggish economic growth and elevated inflation. Read additional commentary on Market View tab of https://seabreezepartnerslp.com

5:21 PM · May 15, 2023
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7,314
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Morgan Stanley's chief equity analyst's 2023 prediction for the SP500 was 3000-3300. We ended at 4769.

"the price declines for equities will be much worse than what most investors are expecting
MS' forecast is drop into the 3000 to 3300-point range, favouring the low end of that range given its earnings outlook."

Monday, 19/12/2022 | 20:50 GMT-5

forexlive.com

Morgan Stanley warn that 2023 stockmarket earnings recession could be similar to 2008-09 | Forexlive

Via a Morgan Stanley note on US stocks. In a nutshell, analysts at MS are warning that US corporate profits could be set for their largest fall since the global financial crisis.

Open link

I remember the Greenpeace hippies of another era trying to “save the whales.” These idiots are killing wales with one of the stupidest ideas of building offshore windmills. We’ll see how long they last under the corrosive sea breeze. That and the marxist ideas of imposing production controls, and production quotas. Not market driven. Commie stuff.

Irrelevant.