From a user comment following one of the cash on the sideline is a myth articles:
"The point of cash on sidelines is to argue that stocks have force to grow once this cash gets redirected towards risky assets. You argue total amount of money doesnt change, which is true but if more money is chasing finite amount of stocks say then the price WILL go up, just because there is more demand without offsetting increase in supply. This article is pointless"
As we are talking outliers, maybe for the Hussmann Strategic, 2022 was the outlier and beginning in 2023 it will return to its paltry "earnings" each year as it has had since its inception 23 years ago?
OK, time for a bet Sally. NASDAQ or HSGFX in 2023?
DGTD Bet Resolution!
From 12/28/22, page 2993
Sally took the NASDAQ and Igy took HSGFX for calendar 2023.
People really want to think 'narrow' stock markets are worrisome...but as it turns out, they aren't. Just one more reason indexing works...the SP500 is very often led to new highs by just a few hugely successful stocks.
Seth Golden @SethCL Since 1990, spread between S&P 500 and its Equal Weight counterpart have only been 3.5ppt or greater 6 times through 205 trading days. Only once was market lower through year-end (2018). $SPX $PY $QQQ $IWM $DIA
Another in a long line of very bad calls from David Rosenberg. From 10/24/2022:
"But Rosenberg is leaning even further over the railing. Here’s what he says investors, homeowners and workers can expect in the year ahead: The S&P 500 tumbles to as low as 2,700 (the lowest since April 2020), U.S. home prices decline by 30%, and the unemployment rate rises. The U.S. economy sinks into a recession, for which the Fed — especially Powell — would be largely to blame."
But don't despair. 'Permabear' Rosenberg sees a new bull market for stocks, bonds and other risk assets in 2024 when, he says, he becomes a 'permabull.'
“As the stock market rips in this Santa rally, nobody seems to have noticed that since the end of September, Q4 EPS estimates have been trimmed more than -5% and 2024 by -1%. Then again, who needs fundamentals when you have seasonals, momentum and a dovish Fed as tailwinds?”
From a user comment following one of the cash on the sideline is a myth articles:
"The point of cash on sidelines is to argue that stocks have force to grow once this cash gets redirected towards risky assets. You argue total amount of money doesnt change, which is true but if more money is chasing finite amount of stocks say then the price WILL go up, just because there is more demand without offsetting increase in supply. This article is pointless"
-Daniel Buchal 9 November, 2023
A year ago the S&P 500 was 25% lower, with the same finite number of stocks, and the same hoard of “cash on the sidelines.” It would seem the myth of “cash on the sidelines” is at best misleading.
From a user comment following one of the cash on the sideline is a myth articles:
"The point of cash on sidelines is to argue that stocks have force to grow once this cash gets redirected towards risky assets. You argue total amount of money doesnt change, which is true but if more money is chasing finite amount of stocks say then the price WILL go up, just because there is more demand without offsetting increase in supply. This article is pointless"
-Daniel Buchal 9 November, 2023
A year ago the S&P 500 was 25% lower, with the same finite number of stocks, and the same hoard of “cash on the sidelines.” It would seem the myth of “cash on the sidelines” is at best misleading.
to be fair there is an additional trillion dollars in money market funds now compared to a year ago.
A year ago the S&P 500 was 25% lower, with the same finite number of stocks, and the same hoard of “cash on the sidelines.” It would seem the myth of “cash on the sidelines” is at best misleading.
to be fair there is an additional trillion dollars in money market funds now compared to a year ago.
To be fair as already pointed out, and shown graphically from the same Fred source you used, largely from checking.
Ghost of Igloi wrote (Page 2993): "Valuations reset will likely take us to the March 20, 2020 lows of S&P 500 2,300 and NASDAQ 7,000 in 2023. An inversion to the mean could reach 1,600 and 5,500."
believe me, www.federaljobsearch.com has been getting a lot of hits on my computer lately. at this point i'm just grateful that i found a job that got me out of debt quickly and that i'm young enough to still capture the best years of my running life if i so choose. certainly i can achieve my best while working a job, but climbing the ladder i'm on right now for 55 - 60 hours a week is not going to allow me to achieve my best. i know this and am wrestling with what to do. at least i'll know in february what i can run in the marathon while climbing this ladder.
Happy New Year Igy and all the other Down with the Dow posters. We have had a bad year but I think 2023 will rock (igy might disagree). Lets look for 20% returns on 2 of the major 3 indexes.
Went back one year from today since we are pulling up predictions from back then, and this one struck me as particularly good by Sally,
Congrats, on that SNP 500 did return over 20% and Nasdaq substantially more.
Happy New Year all - here’s to a profitable and entertaining 2023.
you guys make working from home much more fun.
Ditto that.
All I can say is regarding the markets, it's a long and winding road to penny lane. But I say don't look back to yesterday, because here comes the sun, and markets, 'don't let me down.'
Anyone suddenly feel an urge to que up a beatles song?
So, we're on the last day of the market for 2023. How'd you do on the year?
Not counting today's likely losses, I am up 23.72% on the year. Here's hoping you did as well or better.
Good going. With your approach to the market, you deserve and got your rewards.
As for me, I have a superstition to never check my returns before the close of markets for the day, so I can't see the actual numeric value at this point. But I do know from tracking it all year, I am a little above what the Nasdaq did for the year.
So, we're on the last day of the market for 2023. How'd you do on the year?
Not counting today's likely losses, I am up 23.72% on the year. Here's hoping you did as well or better.
Good going. With your approach to the market, you deserve and got your rewards.
As for me, I have a superstition to never check my returns before the close of markets for the day, so I can't see the actual numeric value at this point. But I do know from tracking it all year, I am a little above what the Nasdaq did for the year.
Ok. That's an insane year. Congrats! Oh, and thanks, Joe Biden!
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