This bear thoughtfully collected wall street forecasts for end of 2023 for us. He sneers at them and said we'd hit SPX2000. Truth is every single one of the forecasts was too pessimistic. Except maybe one.
That is interesting. As you know, I don't make predictions, but if I were forced to, I would NOT have predicted that 2023 would be as good of a market year as it has been. The main reason is that I typically expect an average market year, which over time is ALWAYS right.
Actually, I am hoping as well. As i said before, I am looking to buy back some shares I sold at an inopportune time. From past experience, though, the fact that I want it to happen probably means it won't.
Congrats on nailing your call. I hope not to be saying this next year at this time, though.
Thanks. I really try to give a valuation opinion rather then an exact timeline. My sense is that S&P 500 4k and NASDAQ 10k are levels that soon will not be revisited for years. The entire construct of this bubble was built on quicksand.
DGTD Prediction Resolution!
A year ago, 12/27/22, we were bantering after a terrible year.
Igy thought SPX at 4000 or NASD at 10,000 would likely not be seen for years.
@SethCL JP Morgan's Kolanovic: Gonna hurt⚠️ 🗣️Fed policy works w/lag, never seen sustained rally with Fed hiking let alone before stopped. 🗣️Continue to favor defensives 🗣️Tech can't continue to outperform 🗣️Recession by year-end but Fed not likely to cut
11:57 AM · Apr 18, 2023 ·
JP Morgan's Kolanovic: Gonna hurt⚠️
🗣️Fed policy works w/lag, never seen sustained rally with Fed hiking let alone before stopped. 🗣️Continue to favor defensives 🗣️Tech can't continue to outperform 🗣️Recession by year-end but Fed not likely to cut $SPX$SPY$QQQ$DIApic.twitter.com/pQYr8rUFKF
The often -weak sept happened....and the often -strong Oct-Dec also happened.
Barchart
@Barchart
October 12 marked the beginning of the best 10 weeks of the year for global stocks according to historical seasonality. On average, 67% of global equity returns occur during this period.
this one stunk up the place in a particularly vivid way. Sp500 rocked up around 16% from the day of this guy's advice to go with bonds over stocks. Oof.
CNBCOvertime @CNBCOvertime "To me bonds over stocks in Q4 is the best positioning," says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies @3F_Research @MorganLBrennan
I am operating under the assumption that Covid era EPS was inflated by Government stimulus, transfer payments, and Fed monetary policy. If S&P 500 EPS were to decline to pre-Covid high of $139.47 (12/31/2019) x 16 = $2,231.52 S&P 500 valuation. Under a more serious decline to 3/31/2020 previous year GAAP EPS of $99.23 x 16 = $1,597.65 fair value S&P 500.
I would think when and if S&P 500 hits 3,200, earning estimates will be marked down, and at that point we will see price targets in the two thousands. Omnibus bill may extend the time to a low along with keeping inflation higher. Timing other than a likely 2023 event is not something I am willing to pin.
Making money while this dipsht loses money makes me laugh. Never trust an advisor as you can see
Haven’t you been in enough trouble the last several months. I would say it is about time you clean up your substance abuse, as well as your personal abusive behavior. And to think at one time I looked up to you. Pitiful.
I am operating under the assumption that Covid era EPS was inflated by Government stimulus, transfer payments, and Fed monetary policy. If S&P 500 EPS were to decline to pre-Covid high of $139.47 (12/31/2019) x 16 = $2,231.52 S&P 500 valuation. Under a more serious decline to 3/31/2020 previous year GAAP EPS of $99.23 x 16 = $1,597.65 fair value S&P 500.
I would think when and if S&P 500 hits 3,200, earning estimates will be marked down, and at that point we will see price targets in the two thousands. Omnibus bill may extend the time to a low along with keeping inflation higher. Timing other than a likely 2023 event is not something I am willing to pin.
On Dec. 26, Nasdaq total volume was over 2x that of NYSE, part of an ongoing trend. This chart shows a 10MA of the daily NQ/NY TVOL ratio. High readings like this pretty reliably mark price tops, with one notable exception back in April 2023. pic.twitter.com/WP0Bm5FGGB
I have a lot of respect for what financial advisors do for retirement strategies but, outside of Warren Buffet, pretty much no financial/investor advisors are beating a diversified portfolio of index funds. They just aren't. If they do one year, it is just happenstance and they will lose in the upcoming years. When the expense ratio is 0.02% versus 1.1%, they can never beat an index fund over the long haul.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
I have a lot of respect for what financial advisors do for retirement strategies but, outside of Warren Buffet, pretty much no financial/investor advisors are beating a diversified portfolio of index funds. They just aren't. If they do one year, it is just happenstance and they will lose in the upcoming years. When the expense ratio is 0.02% versus 1.1%, they can never beat an index fund over the long haul.
the goal is to beat an appropriate benchmark, not just the SP500.
For most of my retiree accounts I use a global 60/40 fund as a benchmark and I've been able to beat that over the years...for ex in 2022 I had only short term bonds, which was enough to edge me past the benchmark, which had to own intermediate and long term bonds, which got crushed.
But the better answer is a good advisor can get a client to his or her financial goal. Might not quite match the benchmark, but most people are more likely to reach their goals alongside an advisor than on their own.
I have a lot of respect for what financial advisors do for retirement strategies but, outside of Warren Buffet, pretty much no financial/investor advisors are beating a diversified portfolio of index funds. They just aren't. If they do one year, it is just happenstance and they will lose in the upcoming years. When the expense ratio is 0.02% versus 1.1%, they can never beat an index fund over the long haul.
the goal is to beat an appropriate benchmark, not just the SP500.
For most of my retiree accounts I use a global 60/40 fund as a benchmark and I've been able to beat that over the years...for ex in 2022 I had only short term bonds, which was enough to edge me past the benchmark, which had to own intermediate and long term bonds, which got crushed.
But the better answer is a good advisor can get a client to his or her financial goal. Might not quite match the benchmark, but most people are more likely to reach their goals alongside an advisor than on their own.
Sally, some investors can exceed the SNP500 index benchmark over the long term. Trust me, they can. Maybe not most, maybe not during some short-term periods, etc., but some can exceed that benchmark overall.
Perhaps a more fruitful discussion would be to understand what distinct advantages has over an index portfolio and over large fund managers, in the goal of using those things to the individual investor's advantage.
If you are talking about financial advisors specifically, that is a different discussion, and Agip has started to delve into the broader scope of services and benefits of using one besides beating the SNP.
Similar good call from GS, calling for a big 4Q rally even as stocks were tanking.
@carlquintanilla “.. There are 47 trading days left in 2023. I think that [the] ‘year-end’ rally has been delayed, but not fully canceled. The conditions are in place for both equities and bonds to rally into year-end. .. the set up for November is a lot cleaner.” - GS desk / Rubner $SPX
the goal is to beat an appropriate benchmark, not just the SP500.
For most of my retiree accounts I use a global 60/40 fund as a benchmark and I've been able to beat that over the years...for ex in 2022 I had only short term bonds, which was enough to edge me past the benchmark, which had to own intermediate and long term bonds, which got crushed.
But the better answer is a good advisor can get a client to his or her financial goal. Might not quite match the benchmark, but most people are more likely to reach their goals alongside an advisor than on their own.
Sally, some investors can exceed the SNP500 index benchmark over the long term. Trust me, they can. Maybe not most, maybe not during some short-term periods, etc., but some can exceed that benchmark overall.
Perhaps a more fruitful discussion would be to understand what distinct advantages has over an index portfolio and over large fund managers, in the goal of using those things to the individual investor's advantage.
If you are talking about financial advisors specifically, that is a different discussion, and Agip has started to delve into the broader scope of services and benefits of using one besides beating the SNP.
one of the fascinating problems advisors have is long periods like the current, when one sector - tech in this case - has wildly outperformed.
Advisors are going to diversify clients, because that's what you are supposed to do. Small caps, emerging, bonds of all kinds, value, etc.
Diversification is supposed to be the one free lunch. But in this case, of course, every share of anything other than tech stocks has contributed to underperformance. And this has gone on since what - 2010ish?
So advisors have hurt clients in an absolute return sense by doing the 'right' thing. Clients would have been better off for 10+ years to just own the sp500 and not have diversified portfolios. Book learning has done some real harm here.
I'm hoping this changes over the next 10 years and higher interest rates make investing more about cash flows and less about speculation.
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.
