MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

Ouch, Defor ran 16:14 on this course in September and they would have made state with him running 10 seconds slower than that today. Edina's Kevin Nybeck and Zachary Danielson qualify for state after not racing all year? Interesting storyline out of Edina this season..

Hoping 4 guys break 15, with Breker winning in 14:49 and Abbey goes for a PR so 16:46. Gilles is going to feel good about his 15:14 for about 24 hours, although it did look like he coasted in pretty easily..

http://tullyrunners.com/XC2022/Ratings_Oct22.htm#2AAA
187 speed rating for Gilles.
How close Edina was to beating EP without Defor and everyone that graduated from Edina …... was incredible. But the absence of Defor was nice to EP. Edina boys team should be able to qualify for state next year and the year after. Their 1/2/3/6/7 are sophomores and below.
EP loses their 1,3 and 5.
Danielson and Nybeck ran pretty much every race this year. This was their first year on varsity though. Last year their varsity consisted of Haerter, Defor, and a bunch of 2022 grads. So really, only 1 person from varsity returned this year.

6aaa race - results will be here -

results.wayzatatiming.com

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Open link

https://fastfinishtiming.com/22CrossCountry/196Champs/196combinepdf.pdf
This is showing how bright the future of Rosemount is. They also have another 8th grader in the top 10 for the high school team.

I also remember last year 3 EP guys who never made varsity until last year qualified for the state meet. Well, in 2020 all of their top 7 were seniors.
And in 2019 Shuayb Hussein from Wayzata qualified for not only state as an individual, but NXN too. He was on JV in 2018.
Josh Jarpey from Centennial made state in 2017 as an individual even as a first-year varsity runner.
Also, PL has Thomas Simmonds who qualified last year as a first-year varsity runner. He is a junior now but I have seen nothing from him at all. Don’t know what the deal is.

Was anyone else surprised about how close the Edina boys team was to Eden Prairie without Defor? Haerter was the only returner.

Okay I see them now in results at Alexandria, Griak, CP 2 mile, heartland classic, wow those two peaked really well for yesterday. Nybeck was Edina's 6th or 7th runner, until yesterday, ran the race of his life at the right time, well done.

Haerter and Defor were levels above everyone else on the team but their 3-11 or so were almost the same. So their 11th guy could have been their 2nd guy.

But I’m sure that the state berth has given confidence for Danielson and Nybeck’s future years. Hopefully they don’t burn out too quickly.

But Kirkpatrick is a great coach and knows how to have his teams reload.

In 2024 it will be an epic battle for Tonka and Edina at the state meet.

Any source on Lefty Wright being long? Part of the course was torn up from prairie restoration, making it a bit slower than previous years. I'm not sure about it being long though.

yeah a bunch of people were getting 3.14-5 on mileage for the race

On GPS watches? That's pretty normal.

No if you run the tangents usually it’s 3.09 in that ballpark - Lloyd laninga got 3.15 and was running perfect tangents the whole time, and his watch gave him a 5k split of 1635.

Work has been slow so I geeked a section 6AAA preview. All these times are on Gale Woods this season. I don't have milesplit pro, so I'm sure this is really similar to their section preview. Bold are individual qualifiers

Section 6AAA
1 Noah Breker Armstrong 14:57 1
2 Aidan Jones Minneapolis Washburn High School 15:16.26 1
3 Sam Scott 11 Minneapolis Southwest High School 15:17 1
4 Hamza Mohamed 12 Wayzata High School 15:25.20 1
5 Daniel Mccollor 11 Wayzata High School 15:34.17 2
6 Will Weber 10 Wayzata High School 15:40.78 3
7 Suhayb Ali 12 Hopkins High School 15:42.19 1
8 Caleb Dickel 10 Minneapolis Washburn High School 15:42.29 2
9 Tyler Kissell Wayzata High School 15:49.96 4
10 Hayes McMillan Wayzata High School 15:50.20 5
11 Landon Hering 11 Hopkins High School 15:51.84 2
12 Alex Omodt Robbinsdale Armstrong High School 15:54 2
13 Dominic Haugland Minneapolis Washburn High School 16:02 3
14 Benjamin Batalden 11 Minneapolis Southwest High School 16:11 2
15 Nate Meyer Minneapolis Southwest High School 16:17 3
16 Parker Dietrick Wayzata High School 16:20.37 6
17 Logan Drevlow 8 Hopkins High School 16:23 3
18 Gabriel Wiegert Robbinsdale Armstrong High School16:36.50 3
19 Wesley Sumner Minneapolis Southwest High School 16:44 4
20 Max Ehalt Minneapolis Southwest High School 16:50.35 5
21 Daniel Salatino Wayzata High School 16:50.40 7
22 Gus Ueland 10 Minneapolis Southwest High School 16:55 6
23 Tristan Schmanski 11 Hopkins High School 17:12 4
24 Oscar Olson Gross 9 Minneapolis Washburn High School 17:13 4
25 Evan Tromiczak 12 Minneapolis Washburn High School 17:26 5
26 William Just Minneapolis Washburn High School 17:32.20 12
27 Silas Falbo Minneapolis Washburn High School 17:42.92 7
28 Adam Marable Robbinsdale Armstrong High School 17:46.40 4
29 Liam Lamb 12 Minneapolis South High School 17:48.86
30 Paxon Myers 10 Saint Louis Park High School 17:49.91
31 Grant Redelsheimer Robbinsdale Armstrong High School 17:52.30 5
32 Denly Lindeman Saint Louis Park High School 17:54
33 Finn Bleakmore Minneapolis South High School 17:59.40 15
34 Ismael Youssuf 9 Minneapolis South High School 17:59
35 Gabe Duenes 11 Minneapolis South High School 18:06
36 Ethan Collis 12 Minneapolis Washburn High School 18:08
37 Nathan Majewski Robbinsdale Armstrong High School 18:11.50 6
38 Samuel Majewski 10 Robbinsdale Armstrong High School 18:11.70 7
39 Miles Harris 12 Hopkins High School 18:12 5
40 Hans Greenwood 11 Hopkins High School 18:13 6
41 Avery Batala Hopkins High School 18:14 7
42 Casey Howard 10 Saint Louis Park High School 18:23.34
43 Olyn Raleigh Minneapolis Southwest High School 18:25 7
44 Dylan West 9 Minneapolis South High School 18:44.10 20
45 Espen Hopper-Williams 11 Minneapolis South High School 18:45
46 Will Carpenter 10 Saint Louis Park High School 18:55.34
47 Jacob Skelly 9 Saint Louis Park High School 19:15
48 Grant Haggerty Saint Louis Park High School 19:21
49 Cole Athias Finn 9 Robbinsdale Cooper High School 19:21.71
50 Johnny Erdman Saint Louis Park High School 19:25.51
51 Malik Williams 10 Robbinsdale Cooper High School 19:38
52 Emray Sundeen-Aal Minneapolis South High School 19:39

1.Wayzata 4,5,6,9,10,(16),(21) = 34
2.Southwest 3,14,15,19,20,(22),(43) = 71
3.Washburn 2,8,13,24,25,(26),(27) = 72
4.Armstrong 1,12,18,28,31,(37),(38) = 90
5.Hopkins 7,11,17,23,39,(40),(41) = 97

Southwest's 6th beats Washburn's #4 giving them the victory in this situation even with Jones beating Scott. I give Southwest the upper hand, if Scott runs more smart he should beat Jones.

William just was able to stick with Haugland at Griak and the St Olaf invite. If he does that again here (an important race), Washburn will make state.

Looks like his best race was at Olaf this season, 24 seconds back of Haglund at Griak and 90 seconds back at Conference after beating him at Olaf. He's trending in the wrong direction... if he runs anywhere near his Olaf effort, they win, if runs his Griak effort they probably win, if he continues this trend then I gotta give the nod to southwest. Should make for an interesting day.

Win against Wayzata? No way.
They are levels above everyone else in the state now.

Also have to note that this is Just’s first year of XC. He was doing 800s in track. He had a couple of bad races but that’s ok. Those are more lowkey. That can be a good thing since there is no need to peak early. If he peaks in this race they should qualify if their 5th keeps doing what he’s doing. But only 1 team can win this section.

I think he meant wins against washburn, not wayzata.

Edina will be really good in the next 2 years. They'll be legitimate shots to win state when these sophomores are seniors. They just have to stay healthy. Keep an eye out for them in these next years.

Like I said, it will be a battle between them and Minnetonka in 2 years. Tonka has a sub-16 freshman and a very deep sophomore class including some guys that could have made varsity but didn’t (and some started their season in the top 7 but got knocked out).

I think Bloomington Jefferson has the right to enter the chat on this too. This varsity team has only 1 senior and 1 junior.

Wayzata is always good but they will take a hit losing 4 class of 2024 guys