Lance Armstrong and the Marathon

I am a 5'9" guy who weighs around 150-155 and I have run 2:29 so I dont think he is too big to hit his goal of 2:30. I did it so its not impossible.

uh if lance does run the marathon his goal wont be to make the us olympic team. so the bekele biking analogy is serioulsy flawed. I love you like a fat kid loves cake,

Alright, people can think what they want. Do I rule out 2:30? No, I think he has a good shot. Do I rule out 2:15? Hell yes. If El G were to retire tommorow(and he very well could) and just casually mentioned he would like to take up pro cycling and compete and finish in the top 1/2 at the tour de france in his spare time, everyone on this board would ridicule him and rightfully so. Amazingly though, Lance Armstrong retires from competitive sport and states he would like to MAYBE try for a 2:15 marathon, and you people start salivating over his "aerobic engine"(I'm getting really sick of hearing that). Yes Lance is likely to be more sucessful as a runner than El G as a cyclist, but still, come on people. Abdi ran what for his debut? I want to say 2:13? And now, Lance Armstrong, retired from competitive sport, aged, and with nothing to prove, without doing much running in years, is going to come out and run a debut in nearly the same time as a US national champ and Olympian and 13:13 5K guy, all because of his "aerobic engine". Think before you post people.

college lad wrote:

Doesnt matter wrote:

Hey Retard it was trail running with major climbing. It wasnt a flat course on the pavement!

I just decided to do a little follow-up on the article. I found this describing the course:

The Dirty Duathlon course was completely off-road and very technical. The two runs had several hills and there were lots of rocks. The bike portion was 80 percent single track with some jeep trails mixed in.

Also, from the article, one of the guys Armstrong who was "eating Armstrong's dust" is a 16:15/33:48 guy.

Another observation is the fellow who ran the quickest run splits:

1 Adam Reiser 17:17.90 18:43.20

I did some digging and found that he's run at least 8:23/30:43, so if a mid-14's guy is averaging 18+ for 5k, maybe we should give Lance some credit for his 18:57/20:xx.

Dude thanks for this research. I am happy that someone else around here knows how to use google before pretending they have something intellegent to add.

I think we all have to rememeber that his times are off of intermittent run training at best. Lance has mentioned a few times that when he is on the road and can't get a bike ride in he will go for a run instead, but I doubt this amounts to more than a few times a month in the fall and down to almost nil in the spring and summer. I think you would see big improvement in any sort of real regime.

If anyone has any real times from his youth I think it would be really interesting. I searched a while back and couldn't find any.

There was a biker from Buffalo that quit biking in his early 30's, took up running, and went on to run a 2:16 or 2:17 masters marathon. First name is Ralph. This was about 25 years ago. Anyone know who I am talking about?

Lance talking about running:

http://www.runtex.com/flyer03.htm#Armstrong%20On%20Running

"I'd like to run 2:15" Just one more example of Lance Armstrong's arrogance. He has been spending too much time in France....becoming more like them every day.

I certainly agree that many people give far too much weight to VO2 max.

I'd predict a time just under 2:30 if he trains fairly seriously. I don't see him under 2:20.

I do think that it would be interesting to see what he could do in some of the uphill mountain races, like the Pikes Peak Ascent. I would expect him to be much more competitive in those races than he would be in a flat marathon.

5'10 - 150 isnt so muscular, i'm 6'0 - 150 and ran sub 2:20, If lance ran 6 days a week with a long run of 2hrs, he would do 2:45 in a walk, thats barely faster than 4min per km, thats retarded slow for someone with his physiological talent and i dont care how awkward he looks running, i'm sure you all know guys who look terrible but run fast. The fact of the matter is, Lance is not going to train hard for a 'thon but i would be willing to bet money that he could step on the road tomorrow do along run of 2 hours, then come back next week and grind out a 2:45. 2:30 would take a reasonable amount of running, but only a small fraction of the training he does on easy weeks. Now whether his body will be able to handle the pounding, who knows, his knees might be in bad shape from cycling for so long, but maybe the rest of his body is young because of the low/no impact of his sport.

As a final note, i'm glad he is taking up running, it will only make more people enter our sport and live the benefits of a healthy lifestyle.

Ryan

Just one more example of the press blowing things up. During a live interview on OLN Sunday he was asked about running a marathon and said he would not rule out the idea. He was then asked about breaking 2:30. Lances replied with a laugh and said what about 3:00 hours.

I imagine there was a time when Lance could run a 2:15 but that time is past, not necessarily physically, but mentally it sounds like he wants a break from competition and serious training. You've gotta be pretty hungry to run 2:15 and I don't think he's got that drive now. 2:30 certainly seems doable though.

Come on, guys! Is 2:30 really that big a deal for him? We are talking about someone with a huge genetic advantage who knows how to train both smart and hard.

I cannot believe you guys feel so threatened. Some cyclist comes along and hits times you can't - it can't be! And so you have to make out that he'd be struggling to break 2:30! We're talking about Lance - one of the greatest endurance athletes ever running a time that is fast, but not THAT great.

He could smash 2:30 EASILY. I can't believe this is even a debate! Can he do 2:22? That's more of a debate, but still a no brainer. Whether he can run 2:15 is more of a question mark. I know he's not Tergat, but we aren't talking about 2:05 here.

Just cause 2:15 is so hard for us, don't feel threatened that he can do it in 2 or 3 years.

But the big question is this? Does he WANT to do it? To put in lotsa hours and miles? To put in hard work to be the best he can be? After all the tour years, I doubt it.

And so we'll never know...

come on wrote:

you really think ALMOST ANYONE can run under 2:30 if they train hard and smart enough? I've got to call bullshit.

Yes, I do.

Seb Coe spoke of 4min milers being born and sub 2:20 marathoners being trained. So saying that 2:30 is achievable for most is not way out there.

I am confident of running that fast this year and I probably be as heavy as Lance - too muscular, but also too fat and only 5'8". I have only been training for 2 years after being obese (245lb) for 7yrs. And I'm nothing special - I just put the miles in and train smart (most of the time).

the big question is whether in a few years Lance will look the way LeMond looks now?

I am sure Lance has the internal plumbing to make a run at 2:15, but I don't know if his physical conformation is as well suited to running as cycling - not sure if his running economy would be that great with his simple physical dimensions - this might limit somewhat the power of his engine to translate into the fastest time possible. Guys that get into cycling are often guys who know they have the engine, heart, and lungs, but have awkward and wasteful economy that keeps them from making full use of it. Not saying that is Lance's case, but it may well be why he sort of found his way into cycling more than running.

French Fan wrote:

I was well aware it was a hilly trail run. Still, even if thats the TOUGHEST 3 mile course in the world, runs of 19, and 20 minutes roughly, cannot be considered to be worth any better than runs of 15:30 and 16:30 on the flatest hardest pavement on earth(again for 3 miles, and thats being REALLY generous, in reality more like 16:30 and 17:30). If you think that this doesnt cast serious doubt on a retired, semi-serious, old Armstrong running a 2:15 marathon or even 2:30, you are the retard, not I.

I don't know what the TOUGHEST 3 mile course in the world is, but the last 3 miles of the Pikes Peak Ascent will take ANYONE longer than 19-20 minutes.

However, I doubt Armstrong's course was that difficult, and I seriously doubt Armstrong could run 2:15. It would take him forever just to get in top marathon shape and he's not getting any younger.

He has the aerobic conditioning, background as a runner from when he was younger, and has virtually unlimited resources at his disposal (not to mention Chris Carmichael as a coach). I wouldn't rule anything out for him if he REALLY wants to do it. I know someone who is a runner/cyclist that rode Apl D'Huez in a time much slower than Lance (and only one stage instead of a whole tour) who also happened to run a marathoner in the 2:30-2:40 range. Low 2:20's definitely in the cards if he wants it.

oye wrote:

Id give him a staning o if he ran a 2:45...

Look, I respect Lance a hell of a lot, he won 7 TdFs and that DOES deserve a standing ovation. But to give him a standing o for a 2:45! I can run a 2:45 easily, why don't you give me a standing o or what about the hundreds of guys already doing 2:30s, they would deserve it more than IF Lance ran a 2:45.

and that's my rant for the day.

Some of you have zero physiological knowledge. It would take him 2-5 years to get down to 2:30. He has the engine, but his muscles need time. Cycling is low impact. The eccentric stress would take time to adapt to. If he decided to jump into some Texas marathon and spits out a sub 2:30 then I'll be proven wrong, but I don't think I will be. Two difference sports people. This argument is pointless since I doubt he be putting the mental effort into training. Now, if this was Lance back in 1998 and he decided to come back as a runner instead of a cyclist and put in a couple years of training then he likely could have went 2:20-2:15, but right now he doesn't have the time nor the motivation. He'll run no faster than 2:35-40, and that's with 6 months to a year of training.

Alan