Flagpole wrote:
"The women's world record is 14:11 - do people really not think most 16 year old guys could come within 6 minutes of that?"
Yes. I think most MEN under age 40 (well over age 40 too, but I'm going for the most able group of men) could NOT run 5,000 meters within about 6 minutes of that time (not under 20:00).
Simply by the numbers....
The average active person's VO2max is in the low-mid 40's, and while there are a few studies around showing improvement up to 50% for a few individuals, the average is in the 10-15% range. Plug this into Dr. Daniels Oxygen Power equations and you get around 20-21 for the average person. That's POTENTIAL if they trained hard for it, and that's the average person, not the average runner. Now this is average, or mean. not median, but in large distributions, the mean and median are usually fairly close. What this means is half of all normal, healthy people could run faster than that, and half could not.
Once again, this is POTENTIAL, not what they can just saunter out to their local road race and run. Many people (joggers world readers) don't even know HOW to train. Many people who run are just doing it to control their weight, and they don't even care how fast they go. Others are just going for the post-race party (social runners). Many people don't want to run 60mpw plus 2-3 workouts (don't want to hurt that much), and others simply can't do it without getting injured.
Put that all together and it's not hard to see why there are so few people running sub-20, 18, or 15.