Nick Symmonds is listed in a 400m race overseas!!! predictions please

ttc wrote:

ANON wrote:

45.9

Agreed on this- although I'll take it to 45.7.

I cannot believe people predicting 47-48. That's what excellent milers do. Nick often splits :50 in his 800M's.

You are crazy. Do you really think Symmonds has Rudisha's speed when Symmonds is over 2.5 seconds slower over 800m? Rudisha has run 45.50 and 1:41.01. At the absolute fastest, Symmonds will run about 46.8, but I think he'll run around 47.0 (assuming good conditions and a decent start).

DNS

I predict he'll run 46.80 without blocks.

I predict he will blow a hamstring in the acceleration phase

Interesting Studd wrote:

defeintly fast that 47... I'm saying 46.7

Really? My 5 year old speaks better than you. Really! Fhuking retard.

I can't see how we're predicting a world 800M finalist, to run the same 400M of 47, that some milers would. Michael Granville was faster than 47. You can call him a speed 800'er- except that he was never even a pro. Not really. Symmonds can beat Ashlon in a 400. If he runs 47, then I bet he states it as a controlled effort to guard from injury, or it's pouring buckets. Not a disclaimer, but just the only way he hits 47.

800/1500 types can generally take their 400 speed and add 4-5 seconds to come up with their 800 potential. Working backwards Symmonds has run 1:43.8..average of 51.9. minus 4-5 seconds =46.9-47.9...so probably 47 low on a good day...

47.64 based off his 1:43.78/3:36.4 pr's

...3:36.04 (missed the 0)

400mGuy wrote:

Do you really think Symmonds has Rudisha's speed when Symmonds is over 2.5 seconds slower over 800m? Rudisha has run 45.50 and 1:41.01. At the absolute fastest, Symmonds will run about 46.8, but I think he'll run around 47.0 (assuming good conditions and a decent start).

Correct.

1. Rudisha is ~2.8 seconds faster than Symmonds over 800. That's 1.4 seconds per 400.

2. Rudisha is a 400/800 guy. Symmonds is a strength guy. Listen, guys: The difference between them in an open 400 is UNDOUBTEDLY greater than the per-lap difference in their 800 pace. He is clearly >= 1.5 seconds slower than Rudisha in the 400.

3. Rudisha's 400 PR is 45.5. Note that he used blocks in that race (and knows how to use them).

I'm going to say 45.5 + ~1.8 --> Symmonds 47.lo

This one is not bad logic and I agree with you up until we are saying Rudisha is in 45.5 shape. Yes, I realize that is his pr, but he ran that in February.

Looking at the 2010 performance lists, he ran 45.50 on February 27, then his 800 debut was a few days later on March 4 when he ran 1:43.15. While 1:43.15 is really freaking fast, eventually he dropped another 2.14 seconds by the end of August when he was peaked.

So 1:43.15 = 45.50 for him. What does 1:41.01 equal? Some might argue that dropping 2.14 seconds in the 800 equals 1.07 seconds in the 400. I won't go that far. Instead let's be conservative and cut that 1.07 in half, 0.53. Well, suddenly Rudisha is a sub-45 guy.

Is that reasonable? Of course. A 400 runner could easily drop 0.53 seconds between February and August. Easily.

So while this is all speculation, now we're saying it's reasonable that Rudisha might be a sub-45 guy. Now add the ~1.8 seconds to Symmonds and we're looking at 46-high, which Symmonds himself says is 90% likely.

I believe that 46 high is probably the correct answer as to his capabilities but would not be surprised to see him run 47.0-47.30...

Especially in his first opportunity to run the distance competitively in some years against a good field.

Fun discussion to read.

When is the race?

Running on Empathy wrote:

ANON wrote:

45.9

I'll go with this.

Rubbish.

48

You joggers think 45 anything is easy?

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Fun discussion to read.

When is the race?

July 25th according to his Facebook page.

see IAAF rule 161- mandatory

39.9

He's been training wearing a weight vest.

47 mid. Can we now put to rest the old Bekele argument as well please?

maldinaro wrote:

Running on Empathy wrote:

I'll go with this.

Rubbish.

48

You joggers think 45 anything is easy?

A: Yes, they do, because they have absolutely no understanding of the 400m, the 200m, the 100m, or the 60m.