Ice wrote:
bobby e. wrote:Furthermore, we have such depth of talent at 800m and 1500m right now.
Just the 1500, really. We have two guys who could potentially be a threat in the 800, unless Webb gets back into 1:43 shape; I wouldn't call that "depth".
On the world stage, as Rudisha runs away into the 1:40 sunset, the current American 800 guys haven't even caught up to Johnny Gray, Earl Jones, etc. The 800 is an incredibly weak event for US men right now, all things considered.
Wheating played soccer before he began "training," so it's not like he wasn't running. It probably gave him a good foundation, especially as a mid-distance guy, and strengthened different muscle groups/improved flexibility.
The key for Wheating now is to build a real base and stay injury free. If he can do that, he will PR. His focus should be solely on sub-3:30 and the WC. That's all he needs to worry about. Will he run 3:28.8? Will he get the AR? I think so, but we'll see. He should get a PR in any event. And sub-3:30 is on another level. The AR holder for the mile in Webb hasn't yet achieved that milestone, no?
woohoo wrote:
burnin wrote:Yes, more like Andrew "Weed"ing. Amirite? Amirite?
This is mentioned often. Why does he have the party boy image?
Because partying is way more fun than not partying.
Wheating should obviously just focus on the 1500 this year. He's not even on the same planet as Rudisha or Kaki (right now) but he's damn close to the top guys in the 1500.
There is a strong chance he can improve there if he makes it his primary focus.
long dong silver wrote:
robby andrews will represent the US in DAEGU and probably make the final. He's young and still used the qualifying rounds that come with running every week in HS and college, the older boys forget its not just one race but a series. oh and andrews does what it takes to win, not just run fast.
Cas Loxsom is of the same caliber. Elijah Greer, theoretically, also has everything needed to be world class at 800 but for some reason hasn't been progressing lately. He has the talent though (ran 1:47 as a hs junior) and the resources (U of O).
Anyway, Robby Andrews is going to be a freakin animal. He looked pretty good pacing Lagat the other day.[/quote]
It might be interesting to see Whating and Manzano try to double, but those "other guys" (Andrews Loxsom, and Greer) aren't nearly fast enough. When Kenyan guys are capable of running 1:41-1:43, they are putting out considerably less effort in qualifying at 1:45-1:48 than slower Americans are. The slower Americans can't recover and have anything left for the final. It really doesn't have that much to do with sprint versus endurance training; It has to do with being fast enough that you're not trying to run at 98+% of the PR just to get to the final.
jjjjjjj wrote:
asdgfh wrote:Lagat never had dual citizenship (Kenya doesn't allow it).
okay, but he was a citizen of both countries at the same time.
No he wasn't, he just didn't tell anyone. As soon as he became a US citizen, he ceased to be a citizen of Kenya. He competed in the 2004 Olympics as a Kenyan, when he was no longer a citizen of that country.
Heard through the grapevine wrote:How about comparing him statistically to runners who:
1. ran a PR in a secondary-for-them event after moving up in distance
2. did so the summer after graduating from college, and
3. did so having just signed a lucrative, multi-year professional contract with THE top T&F sponsor, ensuring that he'll have coaching and logistical support, and incentive to train and race at a high level until he's at least 28-29.
I doubt you can find many people in similar circumstances, and I've even left out the fact that Wheating started running so recently, and has been a pretty low mileage runner.
I'm not sure you really understand what "statistics" means. You're basically suggesting that we should only compare Wheating to people who are essentially perfect clones of Wheating from an alternate universe. That's not statistics anymore, that's science fiction.
Nobody's suggesting that Wheating "can't" ever PR again, or that he's over the hill. He's obviously an enormous talent, and there are many factors, including his relative youth and inexperience, that should make us optimistic that he'll continue to improve.
On the other hand, he has now reached a level of performance that is so rarefied that, historically, most people who have reached it never reach or exceed it again. That doesn't say anything about whether Wheating, as an individual, will PR this year. It just says that, if you were a betting man and liked to play the odds based on past patterns (which you obviously don't), you'd be smart to bet against him PRing this year, with odds of about 60% against.
I understand odds and statistics perfectly well. My main point was that the statistical implication that most high-level PR performances will never be matched becomes almost completely irrelevant when you talk about a guy who set the PR right after a college season when he was just getting his legs under him as a new pro.
The reason is simple: most people who set super-high-level PR performances do so at or near the peak (that is, mid-late stage) in a career of normal length, not at the very beginning.
I just hope Wheating read the SoCalCush thread about morning runs six days a week and a 16-mile tempo. Think what he could do with that.
Heard through the grapevine wrote: The reason is simple: most people who set super-high-level PR performances do so at or near the peak (that is, mid-late stage) in a career of normal length, not at the very beginning.
Obviously we'll have to agree to disagree -- which is fine, since we're talking about probabilities here, not certainties. You think Wheating is so dramatically different from most first-time sub-3:31 runners that past patterns don't apply. I recognize that every runner is unique, but nonetheless think that the data set of past 3:31 runners is big enough that it still conveys useful information about relative probabilities for Wheating's progression.
For what it's worth, here's some data for the 40 (excluding Wheating) sub-3:31.00 performers in history:
Average PR age of runners who ran sub-3:31.00 and never subsequently improved: 24.9 years.
Average PR age of runners who ran sub-3:31.00 and subsequently improved their time at least once: 24.1 years.
Wheating turns 24 in November.
Nothing wrong with disagreeing!
And I'll grant that every time someone runs a fast time, that runner's fans all say "Wow, if he did THAT, just imagine how fast he'll run this year or next." In such cases, many runners never run that fast again.
hold the phone wrote:
Heard through the grapevine wrote: The reason is simple: most people who set super-high-level PR performances do so at or near the peak (that is, mid-late stage) in a career of normal length, not at the very beginning.Obviously we'll have to agree to disagree -- which is fine, since we're talking about probabilities here, not certainties. You think Wheating is so dramatically different from most first-time sub-3:31 runners that past patterns don't apply. I recognize that every runner is unique, but nonetheless think that the data set of past 3:31 runners is big enough that it still conveys useful information about relative probabilities for Wheating's progression.
For what it's worth, here's some data for the 40 (excluding Wheating) sub-3:31.00 performers in history:
Average PR age of runners who ran sub-3:31.00 and never subsequently improved: 24.9 years.
Average PR age of runners who ran sub-3:31.00 and subsequently improved their time at least once: 24.1 years.
Wheating turns 24 in November.
Which guys decided to focus on the 800 or 5k since then?
SomeActualData wrote:
Heard through the grapevine wrote:I say predicting a runner has peaked at age 22, or whatever Wheating is, makes zero sense.
I know what the law of averages means. I'm just saying statistics maybe predict future performances of a group, but it's a silly way to try to predict what a young rising star will do in the future.
I didn't say Wheating had peaked - I was only speculating about how he would do in 2011.
I am very aware that statistics describe general patterns, whereas in this case we are talking about n=1 (Wheating). Nobody said that he was doomed because of statistics. But ignoring general patterns, and the strong tendency for outliers to drift back toward the mean, isn't smart either.
So if "statistics" is a "silly way" to make predictions about how Wheating will do in 2011, what is your method? Looking at duck entrails??
I made my prediction, which is definitely just speculation, and said why. Your turn. Then we can see who looks sillier at the end of the year.
P.S. Thanks "hold the phone" for providing a good thorough explanation of what I indeed meant.
Thanks "Hold the phone" and "SomeActualData" and Renato Canova, for actually providing some meaningful and insightful knowledge to these boards, instead of the common trash talk and sarcasm. I know not everyone falls into that last category, but you have to admit there are quite a few that just ruin it. Every once in a while someone comes along and posts the above, and makes my trip to this board worth while. Thanks again
I think this "PR peaking" concept is mildly interesting, but, IMHO, people at that level only worry about PR's and world records etc once they start to win or contend in a world stage.
Lets face it: sure, maybe Wheating never PR's again. Who cares.
Here is the facts: there are, in my opinion, 3 guys who could win a championship @ 1500m if their finishing speed is there: Wheating, Webb, and Leo M. Wheating is the guy, I think, most likely to be able to hold a 600m kick and step it up the last 200m closing in 25 or something in the WC or Olympics.
When I watch(ed) Webb and Wheating run, I think to myself, these guys if at the right place and the right time and fit, could win something. I don't worry about their PR's. No matter their ups and downs, or lack of races, I will watch their races everytime and root for the win.
renato canova never posted on this thread
Didn't he, though? Didn't he?
No, he did not.
Ham sandwich wrote:
Wheating should obviously just focus on the 1500 this year. He's not even on the same planet as Rudisha or Kaki (right now) but he's damn close to the top guys in the 1500.
You obviously didn't see his final race against Kaki. 15 more meters and Kaki was Kaka.
All the idiots on this thread with their stats are forgetting the definitive aspect of Wheating as an athlete:
Outlier.
Wheating yesterday - 800, 400, 400 x 2
I watched the entire workout at the Nike Campus. He ran very, very fast.
Nature Red In Tooth And Claw wrote:
[quote]Ham sandwich wrote:
All the idiots on this thread with their stats are forgetting the definitive aspect of Wheating as an athlete:
Outlier.
El Guerrouj set the present 1500 WR when he was 23.
Morceli, who held the previous record, set it at 25.
Alan Webb set the AR in the mile at 24.
El Guerrouj set the WR in the mile at 24.
No amount of Oregon bullshitting is going to change that.
It's probably true that this year and next will be his best opportunities to medal at a WC and/or Olympics.