I would be kind of surprised if Solinsky ran a 5000m before worlds. I'd expect to Schumacher's clan to be doing more 1500's and 3000's. One athlete can enter worlds having the B qualifier, so they can let Tegenkamp get in with his B qualifier, especially since it's faster than Jager's, and make Jager go for the A qualifier. They've got some time though.
irun wrote:
I would be kind of surprised if Solinsky ran a 5000m before worlds. I'd expect to Schumacher's clan to be doing more 1500's and 3000's. One athlete can enter worlds having the B qualifier, so they can let Tegenkamp get in with his B qualifier, especially since it's faster than Jager's, and make Jager go for the A qualifier. They've got some time though.
I don't know what the schedule looks like but they really do have some time left and if there is a 5K in the next 2-3 weeks it might not be bad to get in it and put out a fast effort. After all it is very possible that the 5K at worlds can go fast and they have to be ready for that as well as a race that may doddle and finish fast over the last 700 meters.
jussa thought wrote:
doddle
?
That's why I think 3k's are good enough. 3k's are long enough to simulate having to compete when a 5k race is fast(many people run their 5k's at teg's and solinsky's 3k pace). being use to making all out competitive efforts racing at 60's and 61's makes filing into line for 62's and 63's seem much more do-able. 63's per 400m is 13:08ish, 62's is 12:55. 61's is 12:42.5.
Is it unreasonable to mention Alan Webb in this conversation? This year is probably out of the question, but if AW bounces back next year and focuses on the 5k, 13:00 might not be out of reach. That, however, is a big "if".
hart crane wrote:
Is it unreasonable to mention Alan Webb in this conversation? This year is probably out of the question, but if AW bounces back next year and focuses on the 5k, 13:00 might not be out of reach. That, however, is a big "if".
Webb could set the AR at 5000m next year or he could struggle to break 13:45. He is unpredictable to an extreme degree. On a talent basis, he is probably the "closest." What's his 5k PR? USATF says it's 13:46 from 2004! Is that right?
No, 13:10 I believe, maybe 13:11?
Alan Webb is capable of 12:55, maybe even 12:50. He just needs to get his head in the game, dump Raczko, and move to Portland where he can feed off of his compatriots. It is clear that Webb is too psychologically frail to train on his own; he needs other people to push him. Since 90% of America's distance running community has moved to Portland/Eugene, it is time for Webb to make the trek.
what americans will be running in rome on friday july 10th?
I love Lagat, but he's at the end of his career, and time-trialing is not his speciality. Bolota Asmeron is a tough runner and I have a lot of respect for him, but he won't be challenging 13 minutes. Familigetti is a fool (not because he has suddenly taken a liking for showy, Hayward Field front running - there are many more reasons) and I won't include him in serious dicussion.
I think if you look at the rest of the American 5k corps right now, you've got two basic categories:
Guys who are "there"
Tegenkamp
Solinsky
Rupp
Guys who are getting "there" and will be "there"
Jager
Fernandez
Derrick
In my opinion, all six of these guys have the genetic potential to break 13 minutes. Jager, Derrick, and Fernandez (who are 20, 19, and 18 if I am correct) have put up outstanding times for runners their age and if they stay healthy, I don't see why they shouldn't threaten 13 minutes.
Yet things always happen. It's a long shot, but does anyone really see six Americans going under 13 in the next few years?
If they got in a fast race either this summer or next, Solinsky, Rupp, and Tegenkamp could all come mighty close to 13:00. I hate to say it (only cause I'm a huge Solinsky fan), but Rupp is probably the more likely to do this.
My predictions for PR's the next two summers:
Rupp 13:00
Solinsky 13:02
Tegenkamp 13:02
Jager 13:08
Fernandez 13:12
Derrick 13:12
It's so hard to predict the younger guys. I mean, Derrick and Fernandez could still grow (as in height/weight, etc).
what about chelenga. He'll he ran a 13:19 indoors. Oh I forgot this is about what "real americans" will break 13 min. And for this reason I hope none of those f*gs break 13 min you just posted up. And as far as peter pan I mean galen rupp will get his a** handed to him over and over again once he becomes pro. You can guarantee it. So all you rupp fanboys can go suck him off some more.
Walt Whitman wrote:
My predictions for PR's the next two summers:
Rupp 13:00
Solinsky 13:02
Tegenkamp 13:02
Jager 13:08
Fernandez 13:12
Derrick 13:12
You are an optimistic. I can´t see that Teg will improve anymore and Solinsky is too big guy to run that fast what you predict. Galen needs to get his 10k time closer to 27´ before 13.00 is even a possibility. He is a strength runner despite his great indoors 800´s.
no american men are on the start list of the mens 5k in rome on friday, if an american is going to break 13 for 5k avoiding races like oslo last week (which was only won in 13:04) and rome this week are not the way to do it, they have got to get in these POTENTIALLY sub 13 minute 5k's, to run a fast 5k.
when bob kennedy ran his 12:58 for 5k, he finished 6th in that race, so he was willing to run a race that he might not win, but would probably run fast.
correction kennedy was 5th place in his 12:58 american record.
In response to the guy that said Teg and Solinsky won't run a 5k before worlds... I recall in an interview somewhere with Tegenkamp he said he regretted not running a fast 5k before the Olympics. I would definitely expect both Teg and Jager to run a 5k in the next month. If Teg is going to run one he is going to want to get in the fastest race he can. If Jager and Teg are going to run you have to believe Solinsky will too so they are all on the same page. Teg and Solinsky are going to want to PR to get them poised for a medal at Worlds. I honestly expect Jager to run in the range of like 13:11-13:19. I could also see Riley running under 13:20 this season even though he's not going to Worlds. That group is REALLY good. They've proven that for the past few years.
Runningart2004 wrote:Not going to happen. BK will have the record for a long time. Alan
Is 10 weeks a long time?