Abdi or Hall

Assuming everyone is fit, heatlhy, and ready to go. I would think the US would send our African born contingent with

1. Abdi

2. Meb

3. Khalid Khannouchi

Others in the running will be Hall, Ritz, Sell (only if everyone dies), Culpepper and that is about it. Genetics are hard to battle (sorry white americans). Africans are just better. However, I think weather may play a huge role. My predictions above assume reasonable weather. If it is unusually cold I think Abdi especially will struggle (I remember him dropping out of the US XC nationals in NY when it was snowing). If its warm, I have to go with the African born-US citizen contingent.

123456 wrote:

Assuming everyone is fit, heatlhy, and ready to go. I would think the US would send our African born contingent with

1. Abdi

2. Meb

3. Khalid Khannouchi

Others in the running will be Hall, Ritz, Sell (only if everyone dies), Culpepper and that is about it. Genetics are hard to battle (sorry white americans). Africans are just better. However, I think weather may play a huge role. My predictions above assume reasonable weather. If it is unusually cold I think Abdi especially will struggle (I remember him dropping out of the US XC nationals in NY when it was snowing). If its warm, I have to go with the African born-US citizen contingent.

Assuming everyone is fit, Khannouchi would roll Meb and Abdi.

KK is done. Whatever you believe his success WAS attributed to, time has passed him by.

he ran 2:07 about 15 months ago. When was the last time another American ran that fast? oh wait...

hahaha lsadkfj sadlkfj s wrote:

he ran 2:07 about 15 months ago. When was the last time another American ran that fast? oh wait...

Great Point.

Let us compare. In April of 2007 Runner #1 and Runner #2 both DNF. In Fall 2006 Runner #1 DNS and Runner #2 2:22.

In April of 2006 Runner #1 runs 2:07:04 in London and runner #2 runs 2:09:56 in Boston.

KK certainly has had a far more productive last 2 years than Meb. As much as everyone loves Meb, he is a huge question mark.

C'mom guys, what' about me? I almost broke the world record for the marathon on a treadmill!

I am really fit right now, and I'll qualify with an easy 2:21 at Chicago and just use that as a training run to run 10 minutes faster in New York.

JimG wrote:

[quote]newrunnr wrote:

Brian has run as much as 167 miles in a week, and probably has run more miles in the past 4 yrs. than any of the other top contenders.

Miguel Nucci would probably have something to say about that. I don't know if you all consider him to be a contender, but I can attest to the fact that he runs many many miles in training. Last summer, he topped 200 miles during the height of a heat wave here in central cal that killed over 100 people and had a number of other weeks above 180.

He has been injured, but was just up at my team's camp at 7000 feet. Despite just getting back into the swing of things, he logged 130 miles in 6 days including a 7 mile tempo in 35 minutes and 8x800 on a hilly loop in 2:24. On a seperate day he also ran 10 x 150 hill sprints. I believe it was his first "hard" week since returning from injury.

Despite living here in the flatlands, he seems to excel on hilly courses.

I would not be surprised to see him finish top 10 with a big PR.

sj quik wrote:

jerry mizner wrote:

abdi is a chronic dnf-er.

when has he DNF'd? in his debut he stuck it out in NYC and ran 2:17. i don't think he's ever DNF'd a marathon, and i can't remember any other races he's not finished, and i've been watching him race since U of A.

well, he DNF'd US cross in 2006, for one.

Regarding Abdi's 2:17:09 marathon debut in New York in 2004, it's worth noting that he blew his Achilles tendon at the 20 mile mark, and probably should have stopped. He limped to the finish. He was right with the leaders at half-way (64:18), and only 28 seconds behind the leaders at 20 miles.

He came back the next year to New York to finish fifth in 2:11:24, then went to Chicago the following year to get fourth in 2:08:56.

David Monti, Race Results Weekly

CoachB wrote:

JimG wrote:

[quote]newrunnr wrote:

Brian has run as much as 167 miles in a week, and probably has run more miles in the past 4 yrs. than any of the other top contenders.

Miguel Nucci would probably have something to say about that.

I'm sure there are several other guys who may be running more miles than Sell. I meant "top contenders" such as Meb, Abdi, Culpepper, etc.

It is too bad that you don't consider Miguel a top contender. I know that he will stick his nose in there.

In a marathon, anything can happen. Just ask Paula and Tergat.

stipe wrote:

Don't count him out, as he shows up when it counts.

Not in the marathon he doesn't, you fools. He's toast, stick a fork in him.

And dork of the century. This comes off like Dan Patrick every time he tries to act 'hip', he only looks like the stiffest white guy ever.

This really will be an extremely exciting Marathon Olympic Trials. You have Hall - arguably the best DISTANCE runner in the country right now - who has had a huge coming out party over the past year, from his 20K to the AR in Houston to the 2:08:20 debut. You have Abdi, a 2:08 marathoner who would have that AR now if it were not for Hall, and who has experience on his side. You have KK of course, who held the world record at one time and has run friggin' 2:05:38. You have Meb, who took home the silver medal in Athens and has been best from 10K to the marathon. You have the training monster and fan-favorite Brian Sell, who has been training like crazy doing monster miles and saving himself for the fall. You have the veteran Alan Culpepper, arguably the best at peaking his performances perfectly and who cannot be denied after taking XC Nats last winter and running 27:50 in the spring.

That being said, can KK use his top-knotch talent and actually run well when it counts? Will Sell's miles pay off? Will Abdi and Hall have a much desired battle? Will Meb prove he is the top American once again?

Running - gotta love it!

neither abdi nor hall will toe the line in beijing. the us oly trials are a waste of legs.

1. Meb - rises to the occassion

2. Culpepper - trials monster (track, xc, marathon et. al)

3. Pelletier - you heard it here

Shaloub wrote:

1. Meb - rises to the occassion

2. Culpepper - trials monster (track, xc, marathon et. al)

3. Pelletier - you heard it here

He Pelletier, get your head out of your ass...its good to dream though..

Hall- If he continues to roll and he could stop all of the talks of inconsistency if he wins it.

Abdi- It should be his race to lose, but the way Hall and Abdi are running it is hard to really decide on a clear cut winner especially now. A lot can happen from now to then.

Culpepper- Tough to rule out Meb, but I think Culpepper will run really smart and sneak up around mile 15-20. It is hard to say he will out smart silver medalist Meb...... but hey it is just a prediction.

4th- Meb

5th- Sell, his ridiculous facial hair holds him back... I am sorry but he just looks like a jackass with the mutton chops. Even a mohawk is better than that.

Culpepper

Goucher

Gilmore