USATF 10,000 top five predictions

1) Rupp (best as an underdog)

2) Ritz (finish less than a second behind Rupp)

3) Torres (drops leading group with 3k to go, but comes back with a strong last lap, passing Hall and Abdi)

4) Hall (lost some of his leg speed during the spring)

5) Abdi

I think this list is 100% wrong, reverse the order and it's 100% right.

Then it isn't 100% wrong, is it???? 3rd place is the same either way. So it is only 83.33% wrong.surprise you didn't know that.

boredman wrote:

1) Rupp (best as an underdog)

2) Ritz (finish less than a second behind Rupp)

3) Torres (drops leading group with 3k to go, but comes back with a strong last lap, passing Hall and Abdi)

4) Hall (lost some of his leg speed during the spring)

5) Abdi

I think this list is 100% wrong, reverse the order and it's 100% right.

no way! wrote:Then it isn't 100% wrong, is it???? 3rd place is the same either way. So it is only 83.33% wrong.

Heat shouldn't be TOO bad at 8:20 PM. i don't think it will play a major factor.

IMO, this is Ryan Hall's race to lose. His recent 2:08 indicates he is in phenomonal shape. What has Abdi done RECENTLY that is comparable? Same goes for Jorge, although I just don't think he's in the same league as some of these guys.

Ritz, Hall, and Rupp are American distance running, should be a great battle.

I predict

1. Hall in around 27:40.

2. Ritz

3. Rupp

4. Abdi

5. Sean Quigley, as a darkhorse (most underrated collegiate runner ever)

1. Hall: He's on a streak. 27:59

2. Abdi: Best time coming in. 28:05

3. Jorge: Cuz he won last year. 28:10

4. Culpepper: Still got wheels, he was a 1500m runner in college. 28:11

5. Rupp: Still young. 28:12

...

Somewhere in the top ten: Ritz. 2 miles is not 10k.

ah you are right 4 out of 5 not 5 out of 6.so 75% wrong......just kidding

webby wrote:

no way! wrote:Then it isn't 100% wrong, is it???? 3rd place is the same either way. So it is only 83.33% wrong.

Good spatial skills, bad math.

webby wrote:

no way! wrote:Then it isn't 100% wrong, is it???? 3rd place is the same either way. So it is only 83.33% wrong.

Good spatial skills, bad math.

Har har.

Ritz

Abdi

Hall

Culpepper

Torres

Are Moran and Carney running? If so, they're in the hunt.

Hall has got to be the only guy who ran a 1:50 800m in HS to subsequently be known to have "no kick".

Go Ryan!

28:08 for 10,000 on a very hard course, decisively beating Mottram, then a few weeks later running 8:11 and beating some extremely good guys--yet, only "somewhere in the top ten" but not the top five. I don't see it.

Runningart2004 wrote:

1. Hall: He's on a streak. 27:59

2. Abdi: Best time coming in. 28:05

3. Jorge: Cuz he won last year. 28:10

4. Culpepper: Still got wheels, he was a 1500m runner in college. 28:11

5. Rupp: Still young. 28:12

...

Somewhere in the top ten: Ritz. 2 miles is not 10k.

on a limb

Culp

Ritz

Abdi

GEORGE!!!!!

SCRUB

rupp DNF.. gets trashed by knobs on this forum.

I agree, winner will run 28:15...

I think both Hall and Ritz are in sub 27:30 shape, and I can see a big 10K in Europe... Rupp's run was really good, can he do it again though?

i really liked your post about quigley, good call. i also have another dark horse prediction to add onto yours. i feel rupp is very up and down, and that he can fall apart. though he does tend to run well with professional comp. I think it will go as such.

1.Culpepper

2.Abdi

3.Hall (marathons training is killing his speed, could do better)

4. Quigley

5. Cabada

6. Ritz, falls apart last 1k.

but this is the strongest 10k race at nationals i have ever seen in the short years of my life, so any given saturday, anyone in the top 5 could win. torres will suprise i think toooo!

Torres also put in a stellar performance to finish in 14 and change at the Reebok meet. No doubt he is en fuego.

people need to stop riding the results from the cardinal invite. it was a freak event for most.

Ritz

Hall

Torres

Rupp

Gonzales

latter day taint wrote:

Hall has got to be the only guy who ran a 1:50 800m in HS to subsequently be known to have "no kick".

It's the weakest part of his race. At the elite level, I'm not sure what a 1:50 800M shows. It's not like he'd pop a 1:45 now.

What Hall has though, is he mans-up in a race and tries to win. He doesn't bawl like a little girl if he *gasp* has to lead a little bit. Yea, you don't want to be dumb leading on a super windy day. But at the same time, NO ONE ever says anything about the guy over the shoulder in lane 2 taking the wind. But somehow leading a race means the endurance meter dwindles a lot faster. I'm glad Hall doesn't think this way. His biggest successes are due to NOT thinking this way.

Anyone seen the new Cabada videos in preparation for the 10k?

ttc wrote:

What Hall has though, is he mans-up in a race and tries to win. He doesn't bawl like a little girl if he *gasp* has to lead a little bit. Yea, you don't want to be dumb leading on a super windy day. But at the same time, NO ONE ever says anything about the guy over the shoulder in lane 2 taking the wind. But somehow leading a race means the endurance meter dwindles a lot faster. I'm glad Hall doesn't think this way. His biggest successes are due to NOT thinking this way.

I don't know about Hall; last year he led the 5k (way too fast early) and he totally "bombed". Not impressive at all. The year before at Carson he looked very good!!! Just going out and "hammering" from the first does not usually work (after all, the goal at Nationals is to win or at least finish top 3)

Humidity is only 30%, fairly low. It's 83 now, probably be about 78 for the race. Wind, 0 mph. This looks like pretty great conditions to me. I'd like to see them go under 27:30. However, without a rabbit, unlikely I suppose. Hall has had a couple months to recover and sharpen, but I think Ritz is on a hot streak.

Ritz 27:39

Hall 27:42

Abdi 27:43

Torres 27:45

Rupp 27:55