good call wrote:
The last two posters make some good points, bowdoin is banged up, but I still see them making a solid run this year. Perhaps getting a start later in their training will help them, that way they will not peek for open new englands like in the past. I had heard the rumors the Morrisey really wasnt feeling it anymore, and more or less stopped training, and quit the track team, but i dont know if he has decided not to run XC. If he is in decent form (not \'05) form but not \'06 form, somewhere in the middle, they should have a solid 1-2, and they had success on the track this spring, and have one solid recruit coming in that can help, they should improve definatly upon their finish last year at NE\'s which I really do not think was representative of their running throughout the season. They were probably anywhere from the 4-7 best team in the region on any given day, and that might be about the same this year, but more toward the 4 end.
Either way I would expect about 7 teams from NE to be ranked in the top 35 poll at the same time come mid season, (yes this is on the Men\'s side). The men might not have as many national top 10 or 5 teams as the women, but I do think that they will have a similar amount of poll teams. When the preseason national poll comes out, I would expect Williams, Bowdoin, Trinity, Brandeis, Amherst and maybe one other Tufts or Keene to be in that top 35. That is in no particular order, and I am not saying that is what it should be by any means, I am simply saying looking at rankings from last year etc. that is who is likely to be on there from the get go.
Bowdoin didn\'t even run Open NEs 2 and 3 years ago, and I wouldn\'t say that they peaked there last year. They were the first D3 team, but this was more a product of Williams not being in end-of-season form than Bowdoin blowing their load early. Bowdoin always runs a very weak schedule in cross which probably helps them stay fresh later in the season. One might argue against this citing the fact that they have the most fragile team, but I would say this due to the individuals that make up the team. Abrams and Lonsdale had injury issues coming out of HS plus Bowdoin doesn\'t have a deep team to begin with. Like last year, Bowdoin will be a team that will have a good year if things break their way.
I would be surprised if Morrissey is even on the Amherst team in the month of November. If he is, he won\'t be fast. This kid is more done than a burnt steak. Amherst always has trouble keeping it together late in the season, and this is probably because they race hard and often early and mid season. Yeah things worked out for Shauneen in track this year, but even she went to shit at the end of most seasons. Still, they are returning more talent on the track than anyone. This team has a core of solid runners and should do well barring a disaster like last year. Look for them to make top 3.
I hate to say this, but it looks like Williams will cake walk this year. Their freshman class was stellar last year and they\'ll probably get another stellar class this year. If one of their top 7 falls, 4 guys will be ready to step up and take his place. Williams is the hydra. But guys, all their talent is homegrown. For real. And they are supposed to lose on paper. If I may, here are two quotes from a recent \"Williams Record\" article (link:
http://www.williamsrecord.com/wr/?sawContrib=yes&view=article§ion=news&id=8919)
\"In 2004, [Ralph White, Williams\' head T&F coach] hired a man from Benin to be an assistant coach to help recruit athletes from Africa. Although the individual had no knowledge of track and field, the administration still approved his hire for recruiting purposes.\"
“He has made Williams into a powerhouse with limited resources,” said Chris Beeler ’08, a member of the track team. “We have bad facilities and only a few recruits, but he makes the best of the athletes that are here.”
I suppose only having enough money to hire ONE guy whose sole purpose is to recruit Africans as opposed to two or three guys is a limitation of some sorts, but c\'mon. Do I even need to say anything else? Damn Beeler, that must be some good Kool Aid.
Middlebury, hahahahahahahahahaha.
I am hesitant to hype Trinity, but I think they\'ll be in the thick of it next year. If they made it to nationals last year, they can certainly make it again this year. They lose one guy, but I hear they are getting a pretty hot freshman from the midwest to bolster their ranks. Unfortunately for them, Trinity has the least depth in the region. They couldn\'t even field 7 guys at some races last year, so if any of their guys gets hurt their team is in huge trouble. They have no room for error, so they will need many things to break their way for them to have a good year. And really, that is now they got to nats last year. Gravel had a breakout race after running poorly all season, and Moorhead ran well after being injured for so long. I will, however, guarantee this: glorious victory at UMass-Dartmouth.
MIT and Brandeis will probably be the top two non-NESCAC teams at regionals. They had strong finishes last year and both graduate almost no one. At this point, I think both these teams will make the top 5 and one will take 2nd or third at regionals. Keene had one or two standouts in track, but Kelleher hasn\'t shown an affinity for XC and their performance last year at regionals was atrocious. I don\'t know much about the non-NESCAC teams because I never raced them much, but I know that the NESCAC seems weaker this year so look for some mixing up at the top.
So, we have:
1)Williams
2)Amherst
3-6)Trinity, Bowdoin, MIT, Brandeis.
7-10)Tufts, Wesleyan, Keene, and Conn or Coast Guard should round out the field. If only Conn and Coast Guard could join forces, they could make a half way decent team.
As for individuals:
Can\'t really pick against Norte for a repeat crown. He stomped on everyone at every race last year save nationals. Abrams could challenge, but this would require him to be healthy. And there is maybe a 30% chance of that. Butcher will end up in second (or third if Abrams runs), destined to play second fiddle. Behind these three will be the \"chase pack\", which I think will have a lot of non-NESCACers. Kelleher, Ruzevick, both Wheelers, and Brian McDonald should all be up there. Murtagh, Moorhead, Generic_Williams_Runners 1, 2, and 3, Lakehomer, and Murner should round out the top 15. So I guess we have:
1)Norte
1.5)Abrams
2)Butcher
3)Wheeler
4)Murtagh
5)Christian
6)Kelleher
7)Moorhead
8)Ellis-Ferrara
9)Ruzevick
10)McDonald
11)Lakehomer
12)Wheeler
13)Kosgei
14)Murner
And inevitably, 70% of the will go right out the window along with everyone else\'s preseason musings come September.