Sinatra wrote:
prediction: 2:08:55
Same year as Meb's 2:12 NY (and overall) marathon debut:
-13:21 5K
-27:20 track 10K
-42:49 road 15K
-14th at IAAF 12K XC
-Few months from 11th IAAF 12K XC.
Meb's 3 NY marathons: 2:12:39, 2:09:53, 2:09:56.
All that said, 2:12 seems weak next to the above, and a mark Ritz could get. But my point is, sub-2:10 by Ritz in NY for his debut, would be pretty darned huge.