Quick recap from what we have so far: Lakeville North boys team is absolutely for real. If their top 5 are healthy, They will have the capability to beat anyone at state and this region.
At the beginning of the season I thought Washburn was somewhere around 10th maybe. But they have really shown that they could compete for a state title and an NXN berth (which they just missed in 2015) if their 5th gets closer to their 4th.
MPLS Southwest still has the new pieces plugged in after losing Lindseth, Margolis, and Wyatt. But with Washburn really stepped up, it will be hard for them to make state. All of their top 3 are back next year. Their #4 is good too. But I would love to see them get a number 5 from somewhere next year. Maybe a 7th runner will be able to close the gap on their #6 like Doshi from Newbury Park did at Running Lane last year. Now he’s one of the top juniors in the country.
Breker/Scott/Gilles could all go to NXN if they are healthy. Maybe Aidan Jones too if he can keep up with them. No one is beating Birnbaum though. Iowa got some seniors that they need to watch out for.
Owen Bosley from WI had a brother go to NXN twice and one of the best individuals that Heartland has ever had. Maybe Owen himself will have a shot
Provenzano’s move to Indiana really hindered Hopkins the ability to go to state the next 2 years. But they do seem to always get some young talent to work with to help them maybe qualify for state in 2 years.
Blaine looked very impressive first race. Nice junior class too, including River Santiago. Looking to end state drought.
Wayzata girls team are clearly hard to beat by any other mn girls team because of their depth.
Absence of Maya Mor and the transferring of Abby Downin hurt Tonka a little, but they didn’t do too bad considering that. But this reduces their chances to go to NXN.
Farmington girls team got a nice 1-4 but they should work on finding a #5 for the next 2 years.
Let’s recap the Irish invitational. Rosemount got a very good freshman class that almost perfect scored at the freshman race. Their #5 is coach’s son. Winner of that race has siblings that (Brennen, and Lauren). This class might become the best freshman class in the state. This team could win state in 2025 if it doesn’t win it this year. This team also has an outside shot of winning state this year if McNeil gets back to where he should be based on track results. If they don’t win it this year, maybe both Lakeville North and Rosemount could go to NXN this year if healthy. Also worth saying that Rosemount and Lakeville North are in the same conference. For the first time, this is better than any conference in MN. It’s better than the lake conference this year. But not as much depth. Fun fact, before 2010, both teams were in the lake conference. But still, that conference did not have Edina, ep, Wayzata or Tonka in it.
Highland Park girls team is much better than prior lake, even though they lost Molly Moening. New top girl is filling in that leadership role. Nice to see Delia Johnson bounce back to the #2 position. She was #2 behind Moening back in 2018.
Highland Park boys team had a couple of guys finish farther back than expected. But if their results tell me something is that they got a good top 4 but need a number 5 if they wanna win state.
Mounds View boys team was missing JC Otto, and Kalmes did not score like he should have. Charlie Power Theisen was right on Elliott McArthur’s tail.
Hage is #3 junior in the heartland region probably. His team won state 2 years ago but this year they ran as an incomplete team. Interesting. There were some 8th and 9th graders who were varsity last year but this time they were in the 9th/10th grade race. This team was also missing individual qualifier Simmonds.
White Bear Lake was missing their top guy.
So I think we can say this: If everyone is healthy at Wayzata, Lakeville North, Rosemount, and Mounds View, all these teams have a shot at a state title and an NXN berth. Washburn will have a shot as well if they find a #5.
stillwater is racing at marshfield, so we will see how well they reloaded after losing a senior class. Track results have shown that they reloaded. But they always seem to be better at track
Amanda Overgaauw just opened her season with a 17:36 at the Mountain Lake Paul Metcalf Invitation, proving once again that she's one of the best girl's runners in MN, even though she often gets overlooked running in Class A (the smallest schools).
Notes on the JV race… EP Sophomore Doolittle went from going to state as an individual to running JV. Don’t know how this could have possibly happened but based on his time in that race he should start running varsity again. He also had another sophomore teammate right behind him. Varsity had a great 1-6 today so with him back in the lineup this is a magnificent 7. So one takeaway is that Minnetonka, Edina, and EP have the best sophomore classes in the state. So in 2 years they could be the top 3 teams in the state. They are all in the same section so 1 of these teams will be left out unfortunately. Wayzata always seems to have a good top 5. They have 3 really good sophs (Weber, Salatino, and Haag). They also have Adams who ran a 4:46 last spring and sub-18 last fall but he’s not on the mshsl roster for XC so idk if he runs anymore. Or transferred somewhere. Another wayzata guy missing from the mshsl roster is senior Zak Hussein who ran a sub-16 at RunningLane last year. Don’t think he runs anymore but if not that’s fine. They are still 7-deep this year which makes it for an even better set up next year with only Hamza leaving. Could be one of the best teams in the nation next year (maybe even going for a national championship. This prediction would be bold, I know lol). But people that ranked them at 11 nationally ranked them too high.
The top 2 Armstrong guys who were running at the JV race at the Irish invite were on varsity last year so this makes me confused why they weren’t with the rest of their guys yesterday. Their #3 guy that ran on JV also ran at sections either freshman or sophomore year.
Amanda Overgaauw just opened her season with a 17:36 at the Mountain Lake Paul Metcalf Invitation, proving once again that she's one of the best girl's runners in MN, even though she often gets overlooked running in Class A (the smallest schools).
her team has a solid 1-4 but they could really use a better #5.
Another note on the Irish invite…. Only boy from White Bear ran JV? And only one in the c race? Wow this is super odd! Didn’t expect that at all! Program must be falling apart or something.
I am looking forward to see how Worthington boys team opens up
definitely a team looking to contend for the podium in AA it seems like they got really good 1-4 (3 seniors I think) but we’re not sold on their number 5 yet.
we do know that these teams also still need a number 5:
Washburn boys
bemidji boys (I think they could still make state without one. They’re not in that strong of a section. But a #5 will help them do well at state)
Highland Park boys.
big lake boys (their candidates for a #5 have injuries or something)
White Bear boys but their number 5 seems to be getting there. But they are up against Stillwater and woodbury. Stillwater pretty much reloaded during track, and another section foe woodbury is racing tonight and will look to make state for the first time in forever
Hopkins boys (I think their 4-5 gap will close come sections but it probably doesn’t matter cause it’s hard to go to state without provenzano now)
farmington girls. That can wait until next year but if they find one they might even win state and go to NXN
Appreciate your analysis and passion for the sport.
One thing to consider. It can be difficult to win the championship when you only have 5 good counters. Injury, sickness, an off day all heavily favour the teams that go 6 or 7 deep. You can surely win with only 5, but the margin for error is very thin. It will be interesting how this plays out over the season for teams that have no depth after runner number 5.
Appreciate your analysis and passion for the sport.
One thing to consider. It can be difficult to win the championship when you only have 5 good counters. Injury, sickness, an off day all heavily favour the teams that go 6 or 7 deep. You can surely win with only 5, but the margin for error is very thin. It will be interesting how this plays out over the season for teams that have no depth after runner number 5.
Twilight: Woodbury has strong top 5. They are Looking to go to state for the first time in forever. They were also missing one of their top 5 guys who was their number 2 or 3 on the team last year. He is a freshman.
Woodbury’s #6 in this race was a freshman so we can expect him to move up and maybe close the gap on the guy in front of him by the end of the season. If he closes the gap and the other freshman returns, Woodbury will have a very good top 7 this year. So in case one of their top 5 gets hurt, there will be a 6th and 7th guy to help
Marshfield: Stillwater reloaded nicely. They lost so many people but returned so many people. And sophomore Riniker stepped up. Should win section again because this section isn’t that strong anyways but Woodbury is looking to take second and seems very good this year. I thought stillwater’s 6th and 7th would be closer to their 5th based on track results and their history of reloading. But anyways I am putting this team in my top 10 rankings for sure. But they always seem to be up there anyways. http://results.performancetiming.com/results.aspx?CId=16541&RId=634&EId=3
Now that all meets are done (for top teams at least), here are my rankings for this week.
My current rankings for boys AAA: 1. Lakeville North. 5 under 17 in the first race is great. 2. Wayzata. Missing their #1 guy from the time trial who would have made a big difference. 3. Rosemount. Definitely a podium team this year with mostly seniors. I’m not ready to say that they will beat full-strength Wayzata until McNeil gets back on top of the team. He has great track results, maybe he’s much better at that sport than XC. 4. Minneapolis Washburn. If their 5th closes the gap they could go for a state championship. Until then, I will keep them at number 4. 5. Minnetonka. Has a guy that could go to NXN and great top 5. Great freshman/sophomore class that will help them win state in 2 years. 6. Mounds View. Lelinga is doing a nice job filling in for Skelly. For now I like them at 6th until JC and Kalmes return and score again. They also barely beat a team that failed to make state last year. 7. Eden Prairie. They really stepped up from not making state last year and not losing many guys. Pretty sure they found 7 guys. 8. Stillwater. Graduating a lot of people always hurts and we can all agree on that. But Scott is a great coach and he was able to find 5 guys at Marshfield. Great pack but lacks a low stick. Their top guy went 16:42 but it’s hard to push with no competition. His brother finished as the #2 runner at state in 2020. Maybe Ryan will make a big jump like that this year. Top 10 will be tough but top 25 is a realistic goal for a guy like him. Degonda who didn’t race last year (but was varsity in 2020) is back so that didn’t hurt. Top 5 were between 16:42 and 17:06. I like this spread. 9. Minneapolis Southwest. Got 6th at NXR last year. Got a strong 1-2-3 but their 4-5 are a little too far back. 10. Hopkins. Losing their top 2 (Provenzano and Gausmann) put a blow on them but still, they have 4 guys back and some others who got better. Very strong top 3 in Hering, Suhayb, and little Drevlow. But their 4/5 are too far back.
Also note that many of these teams are in the same section. Roseville’s Mechura and Harrison finished lower than expected so I will leave them and the team out for now. Maybe identities were mixed up in the results? Oh well, I don’t feel like their depth helps me put them in the top 10 just yet. Armstrong is also good but I will leave them out for now. They got a great 1/2 and a fine number 3 but the rest of the team needs to step up. I will leave Edina out for now because they are so young and only retained one person from their v-team. I would like to see them compete against a team like Hopkins. I do think they were able to reload quite nicely though.
I read somewhere that the course Woodbury ran on was track on the grass. but they had a great race and have a lot of potential ahead.
Rankings for Individuals: 1. Noah Breker 2. Nick Gilles 3. Sam Scott 4. Aidan Jones 5. Elliott McArthur 6. Hootie Hage 7. Andrew Casey 8. Adam Lueth 9. Landon Hering 10. Suhayb Ali
I will leave McCollor out for now until he returns.
Appreciate your analysis and passion for the sport.
One thing to consider. It can be difficult to win the championship when you only have 5 good counters. Injury, sickness, an off day all heavily favour the teams that go 6 or 7 deep. You can surely win with only 5, but the margin for error is very thin. It will be interesting how this plays out over the season for teams that have no depth after runner number 5.
Good point. In 2015 all season, Hopkins was able to get away with no depth after their number 5. They didn’t have any depth after Hoeft/Henschel/Eliason/Branson/Staack. I am sure it did put a lot of pressure on all those guys though. We can say the same about the 2015 Washburn team. They were only 5 deep and made state over deeper teams that they weren’t supposed to beat. Then they got 4th at NXR.
Top 2 teams in boys AAA so far - every section: 1- Lakeville North and South 2- Minnetonka and Eden Prairie 3- Rosemount and Bloomington Jefferson 4- Stillwater and Woodbury 5- Mounds View and Roseville 6- Wayzata and Washburn 7- Blaine and Duluth East 8- Buffalo and Bemidji
Amanda Overgaauw just opened her season with a 17:36 at the Mountain Lake Paul Metcalf Invitation, proving once again that she's one of the best girl's runners in MN, even though she often gets overlooked running in Class A (the smallest schools).
Oberhausen’s time/race here got speed-rated: 141 !
Rosemount’s 1-5 were very good during the Irish invite that they destroyed. Actually, they are more than 5 deep.
They were also missing some guys: Beaudette (who was their #5 at state last year and ran a 4:32 1600) Gilley (ran a 4:39 as a sophomore but appears to have declined since then. I expected him to have a much better cross season a year ago than he did). He also ran a 17:16 in 2020.
Amanda Overgaauw just opened her season with a 17:36 at the Mountain Lake Paul Metcalf Invitation, proving once again that she's one of the best girl's runners in MN, even though she often gets overlooked running in Class A (the smallest schools).
her team has a solid 1-4 but they could really use a better #5.
Another note on the Irish invite…. Only boy from White Bear ran JV? And only one in the c race? Wow this is super odd! Didn’t expect that at all! Program must be falling apart or something.
her team has a solid 1-4 but they could really use a better #5.
Another note on the Irish invite…. Only boy from White Bear ran JV? And only one in the c race? Wow this is super odd! Didn’t expect that at all! Program must be falling apart or something.
WBL - Covid.
Yeah I don’t see them going to state this year anyways. Not over Stillwater or Woodbury. If Williams from WBL raced and got, say 9th, they would have gotten 6th. They also need to close the 4-5 gap.
Stillwater found all the guys they needed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some other guys (particularly the youngsters) join their top 5 as the season goes on, so they should win the section they are in.
They always win their section unless a team in their section is exceptionally elite. I don’t see any in that section. Woodbury got 3rd last year and lost almost no one, and on Saturday’s meet they showed that they are very deep. They will make state this year.
Having Wayzata as a lock is laughable. It’s very clear RunningLane was short/fast course given that some of the these guys improved by OVER A MINUTE from State. Also they turned in a lot of subpar track times. Olaf just clearly proved this.
What held Wayzata back is that Mohamed (last year’s top guy) is not off to a good start. And McCollor (who was their top guy last year) wasn’t even racing.
The returner Hussein who went sub-16 last year isn’t even running this year.
You are right. I really don’t think anyone is a lock this year. Many teams can win it. It just comes down to whichever teams are healthy and put it together when it counts (state and NXR)
And McCollor (who was their top guy last year) wasn’t even racing.
top guy at the alumni meet*
I just had them as #1 preseason because they won state and NXR and returned almost all their scorers from state.
but yeah, lakeville north’s track times have shown they could win it this year
Fair point. Their strength was there depth through 5 which Lakeville North challenges them with even with McCollor back. Also Tonka has a lot of room to improve with Westerland (low 4:20s track guy, 16:26 xc pr) only running 16:40, ryan fries (sub 2:00 sub 4:30 track, 16:33 xc pr) only 16:55, other guys like Jackson Downin, James Thomas, Sean Fries, etc could break sub 17 soon
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