Down goes the Dow

Maser wrote:

AP5000 I agree that you’re young with not much in.

I could take issue with many things you have said, but you’re so full of yourself that it wouldn’t be worth it. Instead, I would direct you to the history of this thread, where people have addressed in some way many of the issues you think you are raising.

I will give you but a single example of your young/not-worth-much bias: yes if you are out those 10 days you miss 90% of the gains (just illustrative)...but you totally failed to raise the issue of how much drawdown you miss if you are out during the 10 worst days of the market.

This evidences your psychology, which suggests your position. And it goes much deeper than this—even this example is more nuanced than I will get into here.

Keep going and good luck, but maybe try not to be so cocksure. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings, and the older you get, the more over-confident young guys you remember having gotten wiped out.

In fairness, I know a retiree who thinks more-or-less like you do. 65, good health, hopes to live through a few more gain cycles...but he is the second-cheapest guy I know, so he could survive it. No family, no kids, literally wears the same jacket he wore in high school. Multi-millionaire.

The cheapest guy I know has way more money than that guy, is in his early 80’s, and hasn’t worn socks since the 80’s because he thinks they’re extravagant!

Twostitch wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

Buying oil stocks low is not particularly risky. The world uses, and will continue to use, a lot of oil for many more decades. There was no scenario that existed that I could see where Valero wasn't going to go back up given enough time. Buying cruise stocks was risky and I pointed out that was risky. Those are individual stocks. I, like a lot of people, buy them from time to time. My biggest position, as should everyone's who isn't a professional investor, is the SP 500. Me risking a small position (I said previously was a small position) is a very small overall risk to my portfolio.

Honestly, I think we agree more than disagree. I just find it funny that you’re preaching on about investing in the market(which I agree) then, you go on to humble brag about picking up oil stocks and cruise stocks. It is risky in a sense that it’ll underperform compared to the entire market. That’s the risk.

Maser wrote:

AP5000 I agree that you’re young with not much in.

I could take issue with many things you have said, but you’re so full of yourself that it wouldn’t be worth it. Instead, I would direct you to the history of this thread, where people have addressed in some way many of the issues you think you are raising.

I will give you but a single example of your young/not-worth-much bias: yes if you are out those 10 days you miss 90% of the gains (just illustrative)...but you totally failed to raise the issue of how much drawdown you miss if you are out during the 10 worst days of the market.

This evidences your psychology, which suggests your position. And it goes much deeper than this—even this example is more nuanced than I will get into here.

Keep going and good luck, but maybe try not to be so cocksure. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings, and the older you get, the more over-confident young guys you remember having gotten wiped out.

In fairness, I know a retiree who thinks more-or-less like you do. 65, good health, hopes to live through a few more gain cycles...but he is the second-cheapest guy I know, so he could survive it. No family, no kids, literally wears the same jacket he wore in high school. Multi-millionaire.

The cheapest guy I know has way more money than that guy, is in his early 80’s, and hasn’t worn socks since the 80’s because he thinks they’re extravagant!

AP5000 wrote:

Twostitch wrote:

Honestly, I think we agree more than disagree. I just find it funny that you’re preaching on about investing in the market(which I agree) then, you go on to humble brag about picking up oil stocks and cruise stocks. It is risky in a sense that it’ll underperform compared to the entire market. That’s the risk.

I think we got off on the wrong foot. My reply about the individual stocks was in response to another poster mentioning buying cheap stocks after the COVID market drop. I specifically bought those stocks during/after that crash because I knew the only reason they were dropping was because of a one-off world event and for no other reason. In summary, I was responding to another post, I didn't just drop that in randomly.

That being said, it has so far outperformed the broader market. Valero, for example, was purchased at $38 and stands today around $85. In addition that includes a 10ish % dividend. I don't think I got lucky at all on Valero. That was a well thought out buy. I am certain I got lucky on Royal Caribbean but I viewed it as worth the risk given how much it dropped and how healthy they were pre-COVID.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

I think we got off on the wrong foot. My reply about the individual stocks was in response to another poster mentioning buying cheap stocks after the COVID market drop. I specifically bought those stocks during/after that crash because I knew the only reason they were dropping was because of a one-off world event and for no other reason. In summary, I was responding to another post, I didn't just drop that in randomly.

That being said, it has so far outperformed the broader market. Valero, for example, was purchased at $38 and stands today around $85. In addition that includes a 10ish % dividend. I don't think I got lucky at all on Valero. That was a well thought out buy. I am certain I got lucky on Royal Caribbean but I viewed it as worth the risk given how much it dropped and how healthy they were pre-COVID.

The one off world event was covered by $7 Trillion in Fed QE and Government stimulus. I would assume the pay back will be real, and not kind to bubble investors expecting a smooth ride ahead.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

I think we got off on the wrong foot. My reply about the individual stocks was in response to another poster mentioning buying cheap stocks after the COVID market drop. I specifically bought those stocks during/after that crash because I knew the only reason they were dropping was because of a one-off world event and for no other reason. In summary, I was responding to another post, I didn't just drop that in randomly.

That being said, it has so far outperformed the broader market. Valero, for example, was purchased at $38 and stands today around $85. In addition that includes a 10ish % dividend. I don't think I got lucky at all on Valero. That was a well thought out buy. I am certain I got lucky on Royal Caribbean but I viewed it as worth the risk given how much it dropped and how healthy they were pre-COVID.

The one off world event was covered by $7 Trillion in Fed QE and Government stimulus. I would assume the pay back will be real, and not kind to bubble investors expecting a smooth ride ahead.

AP5000 wrote:

Twostitch wrote:

Honestly, I think we agree more than disagree. I just find it funny that you’re preaching on about investing in the market(which I agree) then, you go on to humble brag about picking up oil stocks and cruise stocks. It is risky in a sense that it’ll underperform compared to the entire market. That’s the risk.

I think we got off on the wrong foot. My reply about the individual stocks was in response to another poster mentioning buying cheap stocks after the COVID market drop. I specifically bought those stocks during/after that crash because I knew the only reason they were dropping was because of a one-off world event and for no other reason. In summary, I was responding to another post, I didn't just drop that in randomly.

That being said, it has so far outperformed the broader market. Valero, for example, was purchased at $38 and stands today around $85. In addition that includes a 10ish % dividend. I don't think I got lucky at all on Valero. That was a well thought out buy. I am certain I got lucky on Royal Caribbean but I viewed it as worth the risk given how much it dropped and how healthy they were pre-COVID.

Twostitch wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

I think we got off on the wrong foot. My reply about the individual stocks was in response to another poster mentioning buying cheap stocks after the COVID market drop. I specifically bought those stocks during/after that crash because I knew the only reason they were dropping was because of a one-off world event and for no other reason. In summary, I was responding to another post, I didn't just drop that in randomly.

That being said, it has so far outperformed the broader market. Valero, for example, was purchased at $38 and stands today around $85. In addition that includes a 10ish % dividend. I don't think I got lucky at all on Valero. That was a well thought out buy. I am certain I got lucky on Royal Caribbean but I viewed it as worth the risk given how much it dropped and how healthy they were pre-COVID.

I was being a d!ck making snarky comments.

I just like making snarky comments when people mention about their great individual picks.

I myself have gotten to a pretty good place financially making individual stock picks and used to really believe in making concentrated bets and to diversify to grow slowly. However, I’ve realized that it’s just survivorship bias and I just got very lucky. I could’ve easily been wiped out clean, but got lucky.

Now, I just have balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.