Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

Getting back to reviewing predictions.

July 2014. Hussman predicts zero returns from the point he hit 'publish' to now.

We now know the answer: around 13%/year.

So, very, very wrong. But kudos for John for keeping his predictions up on the web.

JH 7/28/2014:

"At present, we estimate zero or negative nominal total returns for the S&P 500 on horizons of 8 years or less, and about 1.9% annual total returns over the next decade."

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140728.htm

Oh, snap!

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

Getting back to reviewing predictions.

July 2014. Hussman predicts zero returns from the point he hit 'publish' to now.

We now know the answer: around 13%/year.

So, very, very wrong. But kudos for John for keeping his predictions up on the web.

JH 7/28/2014:

"At present, we estimate zero or negative nominal total returns for the S&P 500 on horizons of 8 years or less, and about 1.9% annual total returns over the next decade."

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140728.htm

To be fair, he still has almost year until the 8-year horizon is over.

To be fair you should note how collectively Wall Street missed the Tech Bubble (NASDAQ -83%) and Housing Bubble (S&P 500 -59%). The Government including the Fed helped create the Tech and Housing Bubble. Since 2009 the Fed balance sheet has ballooned from $900 Billion to $8.6 Trillion, growing massive bubbles in virtually every asset class, with the largest increase in inflation in decades. Good luck with your Bullish view.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

To be fair, he still has almost year until the 8-year horizon is over.

To be fair you should note how collectively Wall Street missed the Tech Bubble (NASDAQ -83%) and Housing Bubble (S&P 500 -59%). The Government including the Fed helped create the Tech and Housing Bubble. Since 2009 the Fed balance sheet has ballooned from $900 Billion to $8.6 Trillion, growing massive bubbles in virtually every asset class, with the largest increase in inflation in decades. Good luck with your Bullish view.

So you’re saying you also missed correctly predicting those bubbles. Wow, you’ve been consistently wrong for a looooong time.

Here in January 2021 GS predicted what seemed a very high number for GDP growth: 6.6%, 2 pts above consensus.

We don't have 4Q yet but right now it looks like 6% GDP for the year is about right. Pretty good estimate during a difficult time to forecast, because of COVID and a new administration and congress.

(btw 4Q21 GDP is currently estimated at a barnburner 8% - things are really rocking out there)

https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1353330288001249281?s=20

Another couple $Trillion in stimulus should keep it going. 😷

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

To be fair, he still has almost year until the 8-year horizon is over.

To be fair you should note how collectively Wall Street missed the Tech Bubble (NASDAQ -83%) and Housing Bubble (S&P 500 -59%). The Government including the Fed helped create the Tech and Housing Bubble. Since 2009 the Fed balance sheet has ballooned from $900 Billion to $8.6 Trillion, growing massive bubbles in virtually every asset class, with the largest increase in inflation in decades. Good luck with your Bullish view.

am I bullish? I'm at 60% stocks in my overall portfolio now. That's more of a retirement portfolio than a growth portfolio. And certainly the lowest number I've ever owned.

OK, that’s good.

Market is pumping again. Good entry for SARK? Or maybe I should wait until the Santa Claus rally.

If I was making a SARK investment of $5,000, I would scale in $1,000 at open if the S&P 500 is up about 60 like the futures indicate. That would give one flexibility going forward. Keep in mind Fed announcement 12/15 on possible taper acceleration.

agip wrote:

That's more of a retirement portfolio than a growth portfolio. And certainly the lowest number I've ever owned.

New ATH in all indices confirmed then!

Prof. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

That's more of a retirement portfolio than a growth portfolio. And certainly the lowest number I've ever owned.

New ATH in all indices confirmed then!

gawd I hate being a reverse indicator

I'm not sure it's common knowledge that 4Q GDP growth is absolutely bonkers. 9.7% right now REAL GDP growth. How is that even possible?

Anyway, that's what the Atlanta Fed is seeing for the quarter ending in three weeks.

That's the bull case, I suppose. Bear case is that buying stocks when GDP growth is this strong might be a very bad idea, on an 'as good as it gets' theory. Given 9.7% GDP growth, tight labor markets, high inflation....the Fed is going to stop QE and start raising rates real soon. Which could be bad for stocks.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=The%20GDPNow%20model%20estimate%20for%20real%20GDP%20growth,24%2C%20up%20from%208.2%20percent%20on%20November%2017

.

agip wrote:

I'm not sure it's common knowledge that 4Q GDP growth is absolutely bonkers. 9.7% right now REAL GDP growth. How is that even possible?

Anyway, that's what the Atlanta Fed is seeing for the quarter ending in three weeks.

That's the bull case, I suppose. Bear case is that buying stocks when GDP growth is this strong might be a very bad idea, on an 'as good as it gets' theory. Given 9.7% GDP growth, tight labor markets, high inflation....the Fed is going to stop QE and start raising rates real soon. Which could be bad for stocks.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=The%20GDPNow%20model%20estimate%20for%20real%20GDP%20growth,24%2C%20up%20from%208.2%20percent%20on%20November%2017

.

and of course this is an ideal combination for reducing the significance of the federal debt.

high inflation, high growth = massive tax receipts and the debt will fall by c.5% because of inflation. We are borrowing at 0-2% while inflation is 5%. Pretty amazing stuff.

I'd expect tax receipts will be off the charts high too, given this kind of economic activity.

US tech finally getting a bid today - up over 2%

at their worst this month tech funds were down around 7% from ATHs.

Didn't take long for the markets to recover from the Omicron scare.

You mean large cap growth.

It’s all good, for more inflation that is: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/labor-productivity-rate-falls-at-the-fastest-pace-since-1960.html

agip wrote:

I'm not sure it's common knowledge that 4Q GDP growth is absolutely bonkers. 9.7% right now REAL GDP growth. How is that even possible?

Anyway, that's what the Atlanta Fed is seeing for the quarter ending in three weeks.

That's the bull case, I suppose. Bear case is that buying stocks when GDP growth is this strong might be a very bad idea, on an 'as good as it gets' theory. Given 9.7% GDP growth, tight labor markets, high inflation....the Fed is going to stop QE and start raising rates real soon. Which could be bad for stocks.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=The%20GDPNow%20model%20estimate%20for%20real%20GDP%20growth,24%2C%20up%20from%208.2%20percent%20on%20November%2017

.

Should we do a review of our china vs USA bet now or do you want to wait a few more weeks lol.

Let this be a lesson folks! Bet against the US of MF'in A at your own risk

Mommy and Daddy need to pump more stimi into the lemonade stand.