Down goes the Dow

The Russians posted this one. But Putin is probably Satoshi anyway. 😷

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/leveraged-bitcoin-traders-flushed-out-epic-overnight-crash

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

yes yes yes yes wrote:

DING! DING! DING!

We have our answer.

Q.: Why has the poster who goes by the handle "Ghost of Igloi" posted regularly for well over five (5) years about every hiccup and modest pullback on the ascent of appreciating assets such as bitcoin, cryptocurencty, major stock indices, large cap technology companies, Tesla, ARK fund, and others?

A.: When it is not going well (for him), the facts are hard to take.

Why, that's right!

When do I not post on this thread. It is posters like you that can’t handle the market unless it goes your way.

Yes, yes, yes...

I cannot handle the markets unless it goes my way. That's a good thing. I learn to trade with the market or I get out,

I've gone a long way to avoid missing out on the market appreciation in lieu of the ability to sit on the sidelines and criticize it.

Iggy, now's your time to buy in.

Big whales and institutions are simply liquidating the leveraged players. Buy in a reasonable amount and simply hodl.

You really think this whole thing is going to zero?

Only shot is if there's WW3, which there may be. And if there is, all of your Hussmann and basically every asset besides the essentials: good housing, food, water, guns, cold gear, etc...

it's all gonna drop 80% overnight too.

yes yes yes yes wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

When do I not post on this thread. It is posters like you that can’t handle the market unless it goes your way.

Yes, yes, yes...

I cannot handle the markets unless it goes my way. That's a good thing. I learn to trade with the market or I get out,

I've gone a long way to avoid missing out on the market appreciation in lieu of the ability to sit on the sidelines and criticize it.

Well, if I thought the market was expensive at CAPE 30, why would I change my opinion at CAPE 40? If I thought Bitcoin was a scam at $5,000 why would I believe the opposite at $48,000? I think I am in pretty good company believing this market to be the biggest asset bubble ever. If so, I doubt many investors will fair well, in fact it would be impossible. That said, the market will not break until mega cap growth breaks like some of the recent blow ups; crypto or ARKK.

Swaglord__69 wrote:

Iggy, now's your time to buy in.

Big whales and institutions are simply liquidating the leveraged players. Buy in a reasonable amount and simply hodl.

You really think this whole thing is going to zero?

Only shot is if there's WW3, which there may be. And if there is, all of your Hussmann and basically every asset besides the essentials: good housing, food, water, guns, cold gear, etc...

it's all gonna drop 80% overnight too.

I’m taking Matt Damon’s advice but expressing my bravery by going counter to most folks here.

Wish you the best though.

Igy, like the guy said, no one is asking you to change your opinion.

We are asking you to have some perspective. But whenever that suggestion lands on your ears, you start telling us about your car.

How about this, maybe among the forces bearing on stock values, one of which is valuation in the context of historical norms, stocks appear to be benefitting from a variety of factors which make it particularly attractive among investors,

If I were you, I would revise your model. There's more going on than just adherence to valuation metrics.

yes yes yes yes wrote:

My name is Igy, and since the time I started disparaging bitcoin, some 5 or 6 years ago, it has outperformed any investment I have ever owned or will ever own.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I could probably apply the same metric to my nearly 20 year old Acura TL.

If a 20 yo Honda is your best investment, then you really are what so many here claim.

Throughout the history of finance the durable value of an investment is the cash flow delivered to investors over time. Crypto has no cash flow, and is like minded speculators trading to one another, believing there is some magic to digitally created stuff. There is no limited supply. A Ponzi-like scheme. Someone lost money overnight when their accounts were liquidated, and that had happened several times this year.

In regards to stock market valuations, the Fed has convinced investors there is no valuation too high. This worked well until the Fed was boxed in. Do nothing and inflation rises or investors lose faith in Treasury bonds. Models that use a method to evaluate their worth are the foundation of finance, and nothing I invented. Virtually every financial model, in a myriad of assets, paints a picture of the greatest asset bubble in history. The car is just a literary tool, but does have more utility today than a meme stock. Pretty simple really, you pay too much the return is not there. Oh investors like the “yes man” thinks they will be nibble enough to preserve their gains. Perhaps, but it is impossible for investors as a class to avoid losses, since someone has to own those securities through every moment in time.

I suppose one can believe a positive good from $Trillions more added to the Fed balance sheet and $Trillions more in reckless Government spending. Asset bubbles, inflation, and economic inequality all point to the Nation being well past natural limits of a responsible society. We can always look to the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe as examples.

Good luck though.

Face the fax wrote:

yes yes yes yes wrote:

My name is Igy, and since the time I started disparaging bitcoin, some 5 or 6 years ago, it has outperformed any investment I have ever owned or will ever own.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I could probably apply the same metric to my nearly 20 year old Acura TL.

If a 20 yo Honda is your best investment, then you really are what so many here claim.

No Troll, that would be SARK up 29% in a month. 😹

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Face the fax wrote:

If a 20 yo Honda is your best investment, then you really are what so many here claim.

No Troll, that would be SARK up 29% in a month. 😹

Seriously, if that's all you got, I'd stick with the 20 year old Acura.

Troll, maybe the 2002 Honda Acura TL-S (not an Accord) is better:

https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.png

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Troll, maybe the 2002 Honda Acura TL-S (not an Accord) is better:

https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.png

I wonder how that value holds up after factoring in avg. yearly maintenance costs, cost of insurance over that time period, inflated cost of fuel, percentage of cost to garage it, etc.

I mean, to keep it in the same condition required some serious costs, and if measured against inflation, the capital tied up in that thing may hardly be worth more than it was back then. YEah, it provided transportation, but to the extent it was driven, it probably depreciated commensurately in its book value due to it increased mileage.

You enjoyed it and it hasn't fared as badly as some vehicles in terms of depreciation, but that's about it.

I am retired and don’t drive much.😀

Is it too late to buy SARK? I should have bought when you guys first mentioned it. I always FOMO.

Yeah but imagine that inflation is a real but unaccounted NEGATIVE cashflow on a USD based asset. If you treat Bitcoin as a deflationary asset, you’re evading those implied negative cash flows and thus it contributes to your wealth in the same way a “positive cashflow” would.

Assumption is that it’s deflationary. Which, if the core of it holds - it is.

Maser wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Many of the crypto liquidations the last 24 hours likely happened while the investors were asleep.

And your evidence supporting that guess is what? The fact that some equally ignorant and self-interested financial pundits have floated the same baseless trial balloon?

Your “evidence” is exactly as I had suggested it would be—which is to say, none at all.

Finding a bunch of other guessers who agree with your guess is evidence only of your membership within that ignorant and self-interested group.

Maser wrote:]Your “evidence” is exactly as I had suggested it would be—which is to say, none at all.

Finding a bunch of other guessers who agree with your guess is evidence only of your membership within that ignorant and self-interested group.

Look in the mirror mas. You’ve offered nothing more substantive than plot lines from a Dan Brown novel. 🙂

Doc, you need to examine social interaction under an ultraviolet light. It seems as though subtleties like sarcasm. analogy, and example have exceeded your perception.

investing noob wrote:

Is it too late to buy SARK? I should have bought when you guys first mentioned it. I always FOMO.

I have been trading SARK, but believe over the next two years will be up about double the S&P 500. Likely best strategy would be to add on big market up days. If nothing else it will serve as a hedge on your market long positions.