We are in a smoke show of an economy.
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1463554268124823558?s=21
We are in a smoke show of an economy.
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1463554268124823558?s=21
agip wrote:
We are in a smoke show of an economy.
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1463554268124823558?s=21
I'm seriously flipping every day between
lawdy miss clawdy, this market is full of froth and being hollowed out
to
good golly miss molly, stocks have to follow this red-hot economy higher
rinse and repeat
If things were anywhere normal the Fed would halt all QE. If radical Fed monetary policy was a long term positive good, it would be continued. The truth is, the economy cannot sustain growth without Fed liquidity, and Fed liquidity and QE have created an asset bubble with inflation. I would say there is quite a bit that a rational person should be concerned about.
News flash, FED MINUTES SHOW CONCERN ABOUT ASSET VALUATIONS.
You think?
😹
agip wrote:
agip wrote:
We are in a smoke show of an economy.
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1463554268124823558?s=21I'm seriously flipping every day between
lawdy miss clawdy, this market is full of froth and being hollowed out
to
good golly miss molly, stocks have to follow this red-hot economy higher
rinse and repeat
Interesting, and the delta variant put a whole level of abstraction to the calculation, delaying a full re-opening.
Interesting article in the NY Times today discussing the impact of the delta variant, and how the Biden admin. is blaming high inflation of goods on exactly that, and how services have lagged because people delayed getting back out to restaurants and bars, etc. over the summer, as was originally projected if not for the variant.
Anyway, that dynamic has created backlog of orders for goods and consequent inflationary pressures, and that is bearing on market assessment of the threat of inflation and its duration.
Lots to consider, and the markets do seem to be responding to it.
I don’t buy Maserati’s command and control economy. These people aren’t that smart, and they have no control. The Fed has created two asset bubbles in the last twenty-five years with disastrous consequences for the economy. This bubble is bigger and more convoluted than the past two. How in the world can you believe a benign outcome?
Anyway Happy Thanksgiving.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:I don’t buy Maserati’s command and control economy.
+1
That said, I grant it is likely he knows stuff that I don't know...
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:I don’t buy Maserati’s command and control economy.
+1
That said, I grant it is likely he knows stuff that I don't know...
Likewise.
If the command and control could be exercised, why wouldn’t they have long ago extinguish inflation? That alone is the most obvious bomb the Fed is tasked with. Congress spends recklessly to curry favor with voters and lobbyists, and the Fed manipulates the economy with monetary policy in order to create a faux semblance of stability. Not much thought put into the command, and the control is a hodgepodge of duct tape and bailing wire.
seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
always hard to predict this sort of thing.
an obvious one would be a giant huge success like Nvidia or Tesla blowing up in a major way, stock down 40% in two weeks. That would cause a gigaton of selling of other names up huge this year. It's been a massive year for asset managers, so they really really don't want to give up a lot of performance in the last 4 weeks of the year.
An evergrande-style debt blowup would be a problem too.
An emergency rate rise by the Fed might trigger selling.
Political instability/terrorism is the hard one...doesn't usually affect business but it could given the tensions in europe and asia right now.
good ones, but how about adding one to the list - major flaw gets exposed in the battle against the pandemic. Like a new variant that totally slows or reverses hopes of opening back up. Lots of the rebound is predicated on re-opening, and making steady progress therein.
Called it a week ago, and wished I hadn't.
Hope that something is figured out soon with this new variant coming out of South Africa.
Chilling.
seattle prattle wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
good ones, but how about adding one to the list - major flaw gets exposed in the battle against the pandemic. Like a new variant that totally slows or reverses hopes of opening back up. Lots of the rebound is predicated on re-opening, and making steady progress therein.
Called it a week ago, and wished I hadn't.
Hope that something is figured out soon with this new variant coming out of South Africa.
Chilling.
yeah good call
looks like now we're back to buying Zoom and Peloton.
Market is almost back down to where I dumped stocks 'too early' a few weeks ago
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
+1
That said, I grant it is likely he knows stuff that I don't know...
Likewise.
If the command and control could be exercised, why wouldn’t they have long ago extinguish inflation? That alone is the most obvious bomb the Fed is tasked with. Congress spends recklessly to curry favor with voters and lobbyists, and the Fed manipulates the economy with monetary policy in order to create a faux semblance of stability. Not much thought put into the command, and the control is a hodgepodge of duct tape and bailing wire.
probably not the best argument...it seems that capitalism likes mild inflation...greases the skids, increases profits each year, reduces the value of debt, gets people to buy sooner because prices are expected to rise, etc.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
John Hussman wrote:
I hope readers found the humor in that.
“Well, on Friday, November 19, we hit the motherlode. Across four decades of work in the financial markets, and over a century of historical data, I’ve never observed as many historical indications of a market peak occurring simultaneously. Noise reduction is always a process of drawing a common signal from multiple, partially correlated sensors, even if each individual sensor might be imperfect. The reason that we follow boatloads of these syndromes is the same reason we base our gauge of market internals on thousands of securities – uniformity conveys information.
Emphatically – and this is important – my intent here is not to “call the top” of this bubble. Yes, this is a bubble in my view. Yes, I believe it will end in tears. Yes, the price investors pay for a given stream of future cash flows is inseparable from the long-term returns they can expect. Yes, if this bubble is ever to actually have a top, this would be a perfectly reasonable moment to expect one. Still, my present intent is simply to share what we’re observing.”
—John Hussman, 11/22/2021 Commentary
This guy has Street Cred😷:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
This guy has Street Cred😷:
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1464221460424237061
I've been saying this for a while - that I can foresee a situation where selling snowballs in December as traders become progressively more and more desperate to lock in their big 2021 profits.
But of course then in January it all starts over, with an economy growing at 5% or more, high margins, low interest rates and global peace. And people will buy back in.
But December could be rocky if people have a strong reason to sell.
On the other hand, the VIX is going to get very high very quickly this morning, which would suggest hedging becomes too expensive to do, which might restrict downward pressure on stocks.
Black Friday crypto sales pitch: “Fortune favors the brave.” 😹
ARKK is up today
more normal tech funds are down 100 bps.
which suggests ARKK got lucky with a bunch of pandemic stocks and has no real talent at picking stocks in changing environments.
They bot pandemic stonks, they kept pandemic stonks, and they still have pandemic stonks.
Not exactly nimble.
Cathy bought Zoom after earnings miss. Me, added to my SARK position this morning.
It's a bloodbath out there today
Seems like a solid feet on ground thread here on how to evaluate new mutants
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1464224842203471916?s=21